Slide 20 of 25
- Yet, if economic incentives evolve for refiners to produce more distillate during the fall than shown, the capability exists to respond through increased yields.
- This graph shows the distillate yield pattern over the 1990ís. Generally yields rise in the fall to build stocks for winter distillate use. On average, the yield increase during the fourth quarter is about 2% higher than the yield average of the lowest yield months of June, July and August. (Recognize that a 1% change in yield is about a 150 MB/D change in distillate production.)
- During the fall of 1996, the winter season began with very low stocks, but refiners pushed yields to very high levels to regain some of the lost ground.
- During the winter of 1998-99, we saw a production decline of about 160 MB/D, as refiners began the season with very high stocks and they did not want to build them further. The production reduction was due mainly to yield reduction.
- As shown on this chart, yields are projected to remain at about the same levels as seen last fall during the stock building cycle. Thus, if more production is needed, increases in yields can produce yet more distillate.