Annual Production Scenarios for the Mean Resource Estimate and Different Growth Rates
1. This graph shows the mean resource volume (3,003 billion barrels) with the 3 different production growth rates.
2. A growth rate decrease of 1 percent (from 2 to 1 percent per year) delays the estimated production peak by 13 years. A growth rate increase of 1 percent (from 2 to 3 percent per year) accelerates the peak by 7 years.
3. Thus, EIA’s methodology indicates that a decrease of 1 percentage point in the growth rate has roughly the same effect on the estimated peak production year as adding 900 billion barrels to the resource base.
4. The 3 curves in this graph have initial declines after the peak year of 7.5 to 8.4 percent per year, gradually slowing to a decline of about 5 percent per year.
5. Incidentally, when this methodology is used to extend the reference case production curve in the IEO2000 beyond 2020 (1.9 percent per year growth rate, R/P = 10 decline rate), the estimated year of peak production is 2038 for the USGS mean resource level (3,003 billion barrels).