Campbell-Laherrère World Oil Production Estimates, 1930-2050
1. Since M. King Hubbert accurately predicted the peak in U.S. oil production, it’s easy to understand why his methodology has gained a following in predicting the world oil production peak.
2. One of the most recent - and controversial - projections of the world conventional oil resource production path used a Hubbert-like methodology. The estimators were Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrère, whose results were published in Scientific American (“The End of Cheap Oil?,” March 1998).
3. As shown in this graph, they predicted that world oil production would peak in 2004, very soon indeed. However, Campbell-Laherrère made assumptions that not all analysts agree with, including their estimate of the world oil resource base (1.8 trillion barrels of recoverable oil).