Executive Summary (Continued)
- EIA’s relative optimism is based on:
(1) use of the current USGS world conventional oil resource estimates, which are both larger and more technically sound than past resource estimates used by others, and
(2) use of a methodology for estimating the post-peak production path that is based on the reserve to production (R/P) ratio observed in the United States since oil production peaked in 1970.
- Other factors, e.g., choice of different production curve hypotheses, market dynamics, technological advances, and economic policies, could change the results, perhaps substantially.