Slide 3 of 17
After declining in 1999 due to a series of announced production cuts, OPEC 10 (OPEC countries excluding Iraq) production has been increasing during 2000.
EIA's projected OPEC production levels for fourth quarter 2000 have been lowered by 300,000 barrels per day from the previous Outlook. Most of this decrease is in OPEC 10 production, which is estimated to be 26.5 million barrels per day.
EIA still believes that only Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser degree, the United Arab Emirates, will have significant short-term capacity to expand production. EIA's forecast assumes that OPEC 10 crude oil production will decline by 400,000 barrels per day to 26.1 million barrels per day by mid-2001.
Iraqi crude oil production is estimated to have increased from 2.3 million barrels per day in first quarter 2000 to 2.8 million barrels per day by third quarter 2000, and production is expected to further increase to 3 million barrels per day by end-2000 and to 3.2 million barrels per day by end-2001. These projections do not reflect any official U.S. Government view, and assume that Iraqi efforts to end U.N. sanctions do not result in long-term cutbacks in Iraqi exports and production. The projections are also less than Iraq's own estimate that production could reach as high as 3.5 million barrels per day in 2001.