Federal Offshore, Gulf of Mexico OCS
Due to this modification, the effective productive capacity is not parallel to the wellhead productive capacity curve for the forecast years as it is historically. By the end of 2001, the Lower-48 effective productive capacity is about 3.2 Bcf/d less than it would have been modeled without infrastructure restrictions for the Gulf of Mexico OCS and about another 1.0 Bcf/d less for the Rocky Mountain States. This yields a total reduction of 4.2 Bcf/d from these areas due to this modification.
The number of new well completions in the Gulf of Mexico OCS was roughly flat from 1996 through 1999 but has a substantial increase in 2000 (Figure 14). The contribution of new well completions less than one year old to wellhead productive capacity has been roughly flat from 1996 through 1999 at about 40 percent, but increased to 45 percent in 2000 (Figure 15).
- Without new well completions, wellhead productive capacity would decline 40 percent or 10 Bcf/d in a year in the Gulf of Mexico OCS. Both production and the effective productive capacity would be substantially reduced as well.
- This is an exceptionally large dependence on new well completions. A sustained and successful drilling program above the 1998-1999 levels in the Gulf of Mexico OCS is required to maintain the area’s historical market share of production.