Natural Gas Productive Capacity for the Lower-48 States - Methodology -
The production forecast is based on the U.S. production forecast in the January 2001 STEO, which represents an expectation of normal weather.
- The U.S. production forecast is distributed among the ten supply areas considered in this study according to each area's 1999 share of production.
- Each area's effective productive capacity is then compared to its monthly production forecast. If the area’s production forecast is greater than the effective productive capacity, the unmet production requirement is allocated to other supply areas that have surplus effective productive capacity.
A Constant Drilling case independent of price forecasts was developed to show what would happen if drilling remained close to January 2001 levels (Figure 2).
- Approximately 879 rigs were drilling for natural gas in January 2001.
- This gas rig count was held constant through the forecast period as was the resulting number of gas well completions.
The next section explains in further detail the basis of effective productive capacity, using Oklahoma as an example.