U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Natural gas production in the northeastern United States rose from 2.1 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2008 to 12.3 Bcf/d in 2013. This trend has reduced the cost and increased the supply of natural gas in the Northeast. This additional supply has encouraged greater use of natural gas in the Northeast, especially for power generation, and has also reduced net inflows of natural gas into the region from other regions such as the Gulf of Mexico, the Midwest, and eastern Canada. Regional environmental incentives, in addition to greater supply and lower prices, have contributed to the increased use of natural gas for power generation. Both of the Northeast's regional transmission organizations, the Independent System Operator of New England (ISO-NE) and the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO), have seen a dramatic shift since 2001 away from petroleum- and coal-fired generation to predominantly natural gas-fired output in 2012 and 2013.
U.S. Natural Gas Consumption
EIA expects that natural gas consumption, which averaged 69.6 Bcf/d in 2012, will average 70.7 Bcf/d and 69.6 Bcf/d in 2013 and 2014, respectively. Colder winter temperatures in 2013 and 2014 (compared with the record-warm temperatures in 2012) are expected to increase the amount of natural gas used for residential and commercial space heating. However, the projected year-over-year increases in natural gas prices contribute to declines in natural gas used for electric power generation from 24.9 Bcf/d in 2012 to 22.3 Bcf/d in 2013 and 22.1 Bcf/d in 2014.
U.S. Natural Gas Production and Trade
Natural gas marketed production is projected to increase from 69.2 Bcf/d in 2012 to 70.4 Bcf/d in 2013 and 71.4 Bcf/d in 2014. Natural gas pipeline gross imports, which have fallen over the past five years, are projected to fall by 0.5 Bcf/d in 2013 and remain flat in 2014. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports are expected to remain at minimal levels of around 0.3 Bcf/d in 2013 and 0.2 Bcf/d 2014.
U.S. Natural Gas Inventories
Natural gas working inventories fell by 162 Bcf to 3,614 Bcf during the week ending November 29, 2013. This was the largest weekly net withdrawal for the month of November since publication of weekly storage data began in 1994. Colder-than-normal temperatures during the week resulted in increased heating demand, prompting larger-than-normal withdrawals in all three regions, including a particularly large withdrawal in the Producing Region. Stocks are now 200 Bcf less than year-ago levels and 104 Bcf less than the five-year (2008-2012) average.
U.S. Natural Gas Prices
Natural gas spot prices averaged $3.64/MMBtu at the Henry Hub in November, down 4 cents from the previous month's price. Despite an overall month-over-month decline, prices in the final days of November rose above $3.80/MMBtu in response to colder weather. EIA expects the Henry Hub price will average $3.69/MMBtu for the year, compared with $2.75/MMBtu in 2012. Henry Hub prices are expected to rise to an annual average of $3.78/MMBtu in 2014.
Natural gas futures prices for March 2014 delivery (for the five-day period ending December 5, 2013) averaged $3.98 per MMBtu. Current options and futures prices imply that market participants place the lower and upper bounds for the 95% confidence interval for March 2014 contracts at $3.01 per MMBtu and $5.26 per MMBtu, respectively. At this time a year ago, the natural gas futures contract for March 2013 averaged $3.62 per MMBtu and the corresponding lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence interval were $2.62 per MMBtu and $5.00 per MMBtu.
|U.S. Natural Gas Summary|
|2011||2012||2013 projected||2014 projected|
|Prices||(dollars per thousand cubic feet)|
|Henry Hub Spot||4.12||2.83||3.81||3.90|
|Supply||(billion cubic feet per day)|
|Dry Gas Production||62.74||65.75||66.82||67.70|
|Consumption||(billion cubic feet per day)|
|Electric Power Sector||20.75||24.89||22.26||22.11|
|Primary Assumptions||(percent change from previous year)|
|Heating Degree Days||-3.0||-12.8||18.0||-4.0|
|Cooling Degree Days||0.7||2.2||-12.4||3.9|
|Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production||0.9||1.7||1.6||2.1|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter|
|Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary|
|Table 2. U.S. Energy Prices|
|Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories|
|Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices|
|Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption|
|Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions|
|Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data|
|Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data|
|Today In Energy||Daily|
|Natural Gas Weekly Update||Weekly|
|Peak Underground Working Storage Capacity||Annual|
|2013-2014 Winter Fuels Outlook Slideshow||Oct-2013|
|2013 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages||Jun-2013|
|Constraints in New England likely to affect regional energy prices this winter||Jan-2013|
|Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations||Sep-2012|
|2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico||Jun-2012|
|Changes in Natural Gas Monthly Consumption Data Collection and the Short-Term Energy Outlook||Dec-2010|
|Trends in U.S. Residential Natural Gas Consumption||23-Jun-2010|
|Probabilities of Possible Future Prices||Apr-2010|
|Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty||Oct-2009|
|The Implications of Lower Natural Gas Prices for Electric Generators in the Southeast||May-2009|