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Natural Gas Weekly Update

for week ending March 13, 2024   |  Release date:  March 14, 2024   |  Next release:  March 21, 2024   |   Previous weeks

JUMP TO: Prices | Supply and Demand | Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) | Rig Count | Storage | Other Market Drivers

Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, March 13, 2024)

Prices

  • Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price fell 42 cents from $1.66 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.24/MMBtu yesterday, the lowest price in inflation-adjusted terms since at least 1997.
  • Henry Hub futures price: The price of the April 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 27.1 cents, from $1.929/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.658/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging April 2024 through March 2025 futures contracts declined 14.2 cents to $2.688/MMBtu.
  • Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices fell at all major hubs this report week (Wednesday, March 6 to Wednesday, March 13).
    • Prices in the Northeast decreased this report week driven by lower natural gas consumption. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price went down 75 cents from $1.95/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.20/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transcontinental Pipeline Zone 6 trading point for New York City, the price decreased 47 cents from $1.60/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.13/MMBtu yesterday. Total natural gas consumption in the Northeast decreased 3.0% (0.6 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) week over week, driven by a 4.6% (0.4 Bcf/d) decrease in the residential and commercial sector, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Temperatures in the Boston Area remained above average this week at 42°F, or 5°F higher than normal and similar to last week’s average temperatures. Similarly, in New York-Central Park Area, average temperatures were 8°F higher than normal at 49°F.
    • Prices in the West decreased this week as natural gas consumption fell in response to rising temperatures. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 74 cents from $2.53/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.79/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, fell 37 cents from $1.87/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.50/MMBtu yesterday. Consumption of natural gas in the residential and commercial sector in the Western region declined 6.0% (0.3 Bcf/d). Average temperatures in the Riverside Area, inland from Los Angeles, were unchanged this week at 56°F. Temperatures in the Seattle City Area increased 6°F to average 46°F.
    • The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, fell 46 cents this report week, from $0.21/MMBtu last Wednesday to -$0.25/MMBtu yesterday, as supply in the basin exceeded in-region demand and the capacity to ship natural gas out of the region. The Waha Hub traded $1.49 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, similar to last Wednesday when it traded $1.45 below the Henry Hub price. The price at the Waha Hub first fell below zero on Monday of this report week as capacity to ship natural gas out of the region on El Paso Natural Gas Company’s pipeline system remained constrained by ongoing maintenance.

    Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

  • International futures prices: International natural gas futures price changes were mixed this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased 9 cents to a weekly average of $8.45/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 23 cents to a weekly average of $8.15/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending March 15, 2023), the prices were $14.22/MMBtu in East Asia and $14.57/MMBtu at TTF.
  • Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, fell by 31 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.15/MMBtu for the week ending March 13. Ethane prices fell 6%, while natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel fell 14%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 2%. The ethylene spot price fell 1%, and the ethylene premium to ethane rose 2% this report week. Propane prices fell 7%, while Brent crude prices fell 2%, increasing the propane discount to crude oil by 5%. Normal butane prices fell 5%, isobutane prices increased 1%, and natural gasoline prices remained relatively unchanged this report week.
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Supply and Demand

  • Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 0.1% (0.1 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.2% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 101.6 Bcf/d, about 4 Bcf/d lower than the record high set in December 2023, and average net imports from Canada increased by 2.1% (0.1 Bcf/d) from last week. On March 12, CNX Resources announced that it will delay completion activities on some upcoming wells, following recent announcements from Chesapeake Energy, EQT Corporation, and other companies that they would be curtailing production until market conditions change.
  • Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas fell by 2.1% (1.7 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, driven by reduced heating demand as a result of above-average temperatures in most of the country. In the residential and commercial sectors, consumption declined by 4.0% (1.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 1.6% (0.5 Bcf/d) week over week, and industrial sector consumption decreased by 0.5% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 1.9% (0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 13.3 Bcf/d, or 0.2 Bcf/d lower than last week.
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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

  • Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals decreased by 1.3% (0.2 Bcf/d) week over week, averaging 13.3 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas fell 10.2% (0.4 Bcf/d) to 3.1 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased 1.9% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 8.9 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were flat week over week at 1.2 Bcf/d.
  • Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-six LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass; four each from Cameron, Corpus Christi, and Freeport; three from Calcasieu Pass; and two from Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 94 Bcf departed the United States between March 7 and March 13, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
  • Vessels arriving at U.S. ports: One LNG vessel with a carrying capacity of 3 Bcf docked for off-loading at the Everett LNG terminal in Boston Harbor in Massachusetts between March 7 and March 13, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
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Rig Count

  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, March 5, the natural gas rig count decreased by 4 to 115 rigs. The Haynesville dropped three rigs, and one rig was dropped among unidentified producing regions. The number of oil-directed rigs fell by 2 to 504 rigs. The Cana Woodford dropped one rig, and the Permian dropped two rigs. One rig was added among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 3 miscellaneous rigs, decreased by 7 and now stands at 622 rigs.
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Storage

  • Net withdrawals from storage totaled 9 Bcf for the week ending March 8, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net withdrawals of 87 Bcf and last year's net withdrawals of 65 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 2,325 Bcf, which is 629 Bcf (37%) more than the five-year average and 336 Bcf (17%) more than last year at this time.
  • According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net withdrawals of 20 Bcf to net injections of 29 Bcf, with a median estimate of net withdrawals of 4 Bcf.
  • The average rate of withdrawals from storage is 24% lower than the five-year average so far in the withdrawal season (November through March). If the rate of withdrawals from storage matched the five-year average of 2.7 Bcf/d for the remainder of the withdrawal season, the total inventory would be 2,262 Bcf on March 31, which is 629 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 1,633 Bcf for that time of year.
More storage data and analysis can be found on the Natural Gas Storage Dashboard and the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.

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See also:

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Natural gas spot prices
Spot Prices ($/MMBtu)
Thu,
07-Mar
Fri,
08-Mar
Mon,
11-Mar
Tue,
12-Mar
Wed,
13-Mar
Henry Hub
1.55
1.54
1.54
1.52
1.24
New York
1.53
1.59
1.35
1.30
1.13
Chicago
1.50
1.47
1.38
1.28
1.16
Cal. Comp. Avg.*
2.15
1.86
1.85
1.77
1.77
Futures ($/MMBtu)
April contract
1.818
1.805
1.759
1.714
1.658
May contract
1.952
1.923
1.862
1.823
1.784
*Avg. of NGI's reported prices for: Malin, PG&E Citygate, and Southern California Border Avg.
Data source: NGI's Daily Gas Price Index
Natural gas futures prices
Natural gas liquids spot prices


U.S. natural gas supply - Gas Week: (3/7/24 - 3/13/24)
Average daily values (billion cubic feet)
this week
last week
last year
Marketed production
115.5
115.7
115.1
Dry production
101.6
101.9
102.2
Net Canada imports
4.0
3.9
4.8
LNG pipeline deliveries
0.1
0.1
0.1
Total supply
105.7
105.8
107.1

Data source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
Note: This table reflects any data revisions that may have occurred since the previous week's posting. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline deliveries represent natural gas sendout from LNG import terminals.

U.S. natural gas consumption - Gas Week: (3/7/24 - 3/13/24)
Average daily values (billion cubic feet)
this week
last week
last year
U.S. consumption
79.3
81.0
92.4
    Power
29.5
30.0
31.7
    Industrial
23.8
23.9
24.5
    Residential/commercial
26.0
27.1
36.2
Mexico exports
6.3
6.4
5.8
Pipeline fuel use/losses
7.7
7.6
8.6
LNG pipeline receipts
13.3
13.4
12.8
Total demand
106.5
108.5
119.6

Data source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
Note: This table reflects any data revisions that may have occurred since the previous week's posting. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline receipts represent pipeline deliveries to LNG export terminals.

Natural gas supply


Weekly natural gas rig count and average Henry Hub
Rigs
Tue, March 05, 2024
Change from
 
last week
last year
Oil rigs
504
-0.4%
-14.6%
Natural gas rigs
115
-3.4%
-24.8%
Note: Excludes any miscellaneous rigs
Rig numbers by type
Tue, March 05, 2024
Change from
 
last week
last year
Vertical
13
-18.8%
8.3%
Horizontal
557
-0.7%
-19.5%
Directional
52
0.0%
23.8%
Data source: Baker Hughes Company


Working gas in underground storage
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
Region
2024-03-08
2024-03-01
change
East
412
422
-10
Midwest
561
575
-14
Mountain
167
169
-2
Pacific
213
219
-6
South Central
972
949
23
Total
2,325
2,334
-9
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.
Working gas in underground storage
Historical comparisons
Year ago
3/8/23
5-year average
2019-2023
Region
Stocks (Bcf)
% change
Stocks (Bcf)
% change
East
398
3.5
345
19.4
Midwest
497
12.9
418
34.2
Mountain
88
89.8
91
83.5
Pacific
75
184.0
147
44.9
South Central
931
4.4
695
39.9
Total
1,989
16.9
1,696
37.1
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.


Temperature – heating & cooling degree days (week ending Mar 07)
 
HDDs
CDDs
Region
Current total
Deviation from normal
Deviation from last year
Current total
Deviation from normal
Deviation from last year
New England
169
-58
-34
0
0
0
Middle Atlantic
157
-56
-26
0
0
0
E N Central
142
-84
-40
0
-1
0
W N Central
155
-71
-53
0
-1
0
South Atlantic
81
-51
-1
12
2
-9
E S Central
70
-56
8
0
-3
-4
W S Central
40
-40
3
16
7
-4
Mountain
178
4
-38
0
-1
0
Pacific
125
29
-29
0
-1
0
United States
126
-43
-26
4
1
-2
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: HDDs=heating degree days; CDDs=cooling degree days

   Average temperature (°F)


   7-day mean ending Mar 07, 2024

Mean Temperature (F) 7-Day Mean ending Mar 07, 2024

        Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

  Deviation between average and normal temperature (°F)


   7-day mean ending Mar 07, 2024

Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Mar 07, 2024

        Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration