‹ Analysis & Projections

Annual Energy Outlook 2014

Release Date: May 7, 2014   |  Next Early Release Date: January 15, 2015   |  See schedule  |  full report

Comparison with other projections

Table 10. Comparisons of energy consumption by sector projections, 2025, 2035, and 2040
(quadrillion Btu)
Sector AEO2013
Reference
INFORUM IHSGI ExxonMobil IEA
      2011    
Residential 11.3 11.5 10.8 -- --
Residential excluding electricity 6.4 6.6 6.0 5.0 --
Commercial 8.6 8.6 8.5 -- --
Commercial excluding electricity 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 --
Buildings sector 19.9 20.1 19.3 -- 19.3a
Industrial 24.0 23.6 -- -- 23.7a
Industrial excluding electricity 20.7 20.2 -- 20.0 --
Lossesb 0.7 -- -- -- --
Natural gas feedstocks 0.5 -- -- -- --
Industrial removing losses and feedstocks 22.9 -- 21.7 -- --
Transportation 27.1 27.2 26.2 27.0 23.1a
Electric power 39.4 39.2 40.5 37.0 37.2a
Less: electricity demandc 12.7 12.8 12.7 -- 15.0a
Electric power losses 26.7 -- -- -- --
Total primary energy 97.7 97.3 -- 93.0 87.9a
Excluding lossesb and feedstocks 96.6 -- 95.0 -- --
      2025    
Residential 11.0 11.5 11.8 -- --
Residential excluding electricity 6.0 6.3 5.8 6.0 --
Commercial 9.2 9.5 9.8 -- --
Commercial excluding electricity 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.0 --
Buildings sector 20.3 21.0 21.6 -- --
Industrial 27.5 25.4 -- -- --
Industrial excluding electricity 23.4 21.8 -- 20.0 --
Lossesb 1.1 -- -- -- --
Natural gas feedstocks 0.6 -- -- -- --
Industrial removing losses
and feedstocks
25.9 -- 23.6 -- --
Transportation 26.7 27.5 25.1 26.0 --
Electric power 42.1 42.6 49.0 39.0 --
Less: electricity demandc 14.1 14.0 16.1 -- --
Electric power losses 27.9 -- -- -- --
Total primary energy 102.3 102.5 -- 94.0 --
Excluding lossesb and feedstocks 100.7 -- 103.2 -- --
      2035    
Residential 11.4 11.9 12.5 -- --
Residential excluding electricity 5.7 6.1 5.7 5.0 --
Commercial 9.9 10.3 10.8 -- --
Commercial excluding electricity 4.4 4.5 4.1 3.0 --
Buildings sector 21.2 22.2 23.3 -- 23.0
Industrial 27.8 26.8 -- -- 24.2
Industrial excluding electricity 23.9 23.4 -- 19.0 --
Lossesb 1.4 -- -- -- --
Natural gas feedstocks 0.5 -- -- -- --
Industrial removing losses and feedstocks 25.9 -- 23.4 -- --
Transportation 26.4 28.8 22.9 25.0 22.7
Electric power 44.1 44.1 53.6 39.0 42.7
Less: electricity demandc 15.1 15.1 18.1 -- 18.6
Electric power losses 29.0 -- -- -- --
Total primary energy 104.4 106.8 -- 91.0 93.6
Excluding lossesb and feedstocks 102.6 -- 105.1 -- --
      2040    
Residential 11.6 -- 12.9 -- --
Residential excluding electricity 5.5 -- 5.7 5.0 --
Commercial 10.2 -- 11.1 -- --
Commercial excluding electricity 4.5 -- 4.1 3.0 --
Buildings sector 21.8 -- 24.0 -- --
Industrial 28.7 -- -- -- --
Industrial excluding electricity 24.8 -- -- 18.0 --
Lossesb 1.9 -- -- -- --
Natural gas feedstocks 0.4 -- -- -- --
Industrial removing losses
and feedstocks
26.4 -- 23.5 -- --
Transportation 27.1 -- 22.0 25.0 --
Electric power 45.7 -- 55.9 39.0 --
Less: electricity demandc 15.7 -- 19.1 -- --
Electric power losses 30.0 -- -- -- --
Total primary energy 107.6 -- -- 89.0 --
Excluding lossesb and feedstocks 105.3 -- 106.3 -- --

-- = not reported.
aIEA data are for 2010.
bLosses in CTL and biofuel production.
c Energy consumption in the sectors includes electricity demand purchases from the electric power sector, which are subtracted to avoid double
counting in deriving total primary energy consumption.