What drives crude oil prices: Overview

Understanding what moves crude oil prices is vital for informed decision-making across government, industry, and the public. Crude oil prices are shaped by a dynamic interplay of global forces, and have impacts on energy security, the economy, and consumers.

Here, we present an analysis of the seven key factors that influence crude oil markets, including both physical market dynamics and influences from trading and finance, and examine their connection to crude oil prices.

This resource serves as a guide for those seeking a deeper understanding of crude markets and the major drivers of crude prices.

Key factors influencing crude oil prices:

• Spot prices
• Supply from non-OPEC countries
• Supply from OPEC countries
• The supply demand balance: inventories
• Financial markets
• Demand in non-OECD countries
• Demand in OECD countries

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  What are crack spreads and why are they elevated?
  
  Crack spreads are indicators of the profitability of refining crude oil into petroleum products such as gasoline and diesel. One common crack spread is calculated by subtracting the spot market price of a gallon of crude oil from the wholesale price of a gallon of refined product. Since May, the gasoline crack spread in New York Harbor has averaged about $1 per gallon (gal) higher than in 2025, when the crack spread peaked around 60 cents/gal. Gasoline crack spreads are elevated primarily because of tight gasoline supplies globally.

  Elevated crack spreads and crude oil prices contribute to higher prices at the pump
  September 4, 2026

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  Longer wells boost Permian crude oil and natural gas production
  August 19, 2026

  China’s crude oil imports fell in the second quarter
  July 31, 2026

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Contact

• Petroleum and liquid fuels markets team
• eiainfopetroleum@eia.gov