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The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview
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Renewable Fuels Module

bullet gif  Geothermal Electric Submodule
bullet gif  Wind-Electric Submodule
bullet gif  Solar-Electric Submodule
bullet gif  Landfill Gas Submodule
bullet gif  Biomass Fuels Submodule
bullet gif  Hydroelectricity Submodule



Chapters in this Report:

Introduction/Overview of NEMS
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Modules:
  Macroeconomic
  International Energy
  Residential Demand
  Commercial Demand

  Industrial Demand
  Transportation Demand

  Electricity Market
  Renewable Fuels
  Oil and Gas Supply
  Natural Gas Transmission & Distribution
  Petroleum Market Module

  Coal Market Module
Renewable Fuels Module    

The renewable fuels module (RFM) represents renewable energy resoures and large–scale technologies used for grid-connected U.S. electricity supply (Figure 11). Since most renewables (biomass, conventional hydroelectricity, geothermal, landfill gas, solar photovoltaics, solar thermal, and wind) are used to generate electricity, the RFM primarily interacts with the electricity market module (EMM). 

New renewable energy generating capacity is either model–determined or based on surveys or other published information. A new unit is only included in surveys or acccepted from published information if it is reported to or identified by the EIA and the unit meets EIA criteria for inclusion (the unit exists, is under construction, under contract, is publicly declared by the vendor, or is mandated by state law, such as under a state renewable portfolio standard). EIA may also assume minimal builds for reasons based on historical experience (floors). The penetration of grid-connected renewable energy generating technologies, with the exception of landfill gas, is determined by the EMM. 

Each renewable energy submodule of the RFM is treated independently of the others, except for their least-cost competition in the EMM. Because variable operation and maintenance costs for renewable technologies are lower than for any other major generating technology, and because they generally produce little or no air pollution, all available renewable capacity, except biomass, is assumed to be dispatched first by the EMM.  Because of its potentially significant fuel cost, biomass is dispatched according to its variable cost by the EMM. 

With significant growth over time, installation costs are assumed to be higher because of growing constraints on the availability of sites, natural resource degradation, the need to upgrade existing transmission or distribution networks, and other resource-specific factors.


Table describing RFM Outputs.  Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.
 
Figure 11. Renewable Fuels Module Structure.  Need help, contact the National Energy Information Center at 202-586-8800.
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Geothermal-Electric Submodule   back to top

The geothermal-electric submodule provides the EMM the amounts of new geothermal capacity that can be built at known and well characterized geothermal resource sites, along with related cost and performance data. The information is expressed in the form of a three–step supply function that represents the aggregate amount of new capacity and associated costs that can be offered in each year in each region. 

Only hydrothermal (hot water and steam) resources are considered. Hot dry rock resources are not included, because they are not expected to be economically accessible during the NEMS projection horizon. 

Capital and operating costs are estimated separately, and life-cycle costs are calculated by the RFM. The costing methodology incorporates any applicable effects of Federal and State energy tax construction and production incentives.


 

Wind-Electric Submodule   back to top

The wind-electric submodule projects the availability of wind resources as well as the cost and performance of wind turbine generators. This information is passed to EMM so that wind turbines can be built and dispatched in competition with other electricity generating technologies. The wind turbine data are expressed in the form of energy supply curves that provide the maximum amount, capital cost, and capacity factor of turbine generating capacity that could be installed in a region in a year, given the available land area and wind speed. The model also evaluates the contribution of the wind capacity to meeting system reliability requirements so that the EMM can appropriately incorporate wind capacity into calculations for regional reliability reserve margins.

 
Solar-Electric Submodule   back to top

The solar-electric submodule represents both photovoltaic and high-temperature thermal electric (concentrating solar power) installations.  Only central-station, grid-connected applications constructed by a utility or independent power producer are considered in this portion of the model. 

The solar-electric submodule provides the EMM with time-of-day and seasonal solar availability data for each region, as well as current costs.  The EMM uses this data to evaluate the cost and performance of solar-electric technologies in regional grid applications.  The commercial and residential demand modules of NEMS also model photovoltaic systems installed by consumers, as discussed in the demand module descriptions under “Distributed Generation.”

 
Landfill Gas Submodule   back to top

The landfill gas submodule provides annual projections of electricity generation from methane from landfills (landfill gas). The submodule uses the quantity of municipal solid waste (MSW) that is produced, the proportion of MSW that will be recycled, and the methane emission characteristics of three types of landfills to produce projections of the future electric power generating capacity from landfill gas.  The amount of methane available is calculated by first determining the amount of total waste generated in the United States. The amount of total waste generated is derived from an econometric equation that uses gross domestic product and population as the projection drivers. It is assumed that no new mass burn waste–to–energy (MSW) facilities will be built and operated during the projection period in the United States.  It is also assumed that operational mass-burn facilities will continue to operate and retire as planned throughout the projection period. The landfill gas submodule passes cost and performance characteristics of the landfill gas–to–electricity technology to the EMM for capacity planning decisions. The amount of new land-fill-gas-to-electricity capacity competes with other technologies using supply curves that are based on the amount of high, medium, and low methane producing landfills located in each EMM region.

   
Biomass Fuels Submodule   back to top

The biomass fuels submodule provides biomass-fired plant technology characterizations (capital costs, operating costs, capacity factors, etc.) and fuel information for EMM, thereby allowing biomass-fueled power plants to compete with other electricity generating technologies. 

Biomass fuel prices are represented by a supply curve constructed according to the accessibility of resources to the electricity generation sector.  The supply curve employs resource inventory and cost data for four categories of biomass fuel - urban wood waste and mill residues, forest residues, energy crops, and agricultural residues. Fuel distribution and preparation cost data are built into these curves. The supply schedule of biomass fuel prices is combined with other variable operating costs associated with burning biomass. The aggregate variable cost is then passed to EMM.

   
Hydroelectricity Submodule   back to top

The hydroelectricity submodule provides the EMM the amounts of new hydroelectric capacity that can be built at known and well characterized sites, along with related cost and performance data. The information is expressed in the form of a three–step supply function that represents the aggregate amount of new capacity and associated costs that can be offered in each year in each region. Sites include undeveloped stretches of rivers, existing dams or diversions that do not currently produce power, and existing hydroelectric plants that have known capability to expand operations through the addition of new generating units. Capacity or efficiency improvements through the replacement of existing equipment or changes to operating procedures at a facility are not included in the hydroelectricity supply.

   
   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Preface and Contacts
Appendix

 
Chapters in this Report:

Introduction/Overview of NEMS
Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Modules:
  Macroeconomic
  International Energy
  Residential Demand
  Commercial Demand

  Industrial Demand
  Transportation Demand

  Electricity Market
  Renewable Fuels
  Oil and Gas Supply
  Natural Gas Transmission & Distribution
  Petroleum Market Module

  Coal Market Module