Non-U.S. liquid fuels markets are represented in NEMS by the interaction
between the PMM and the IEM. Using the specific algorithm described in
the documentation of this module, IEM calculates the WOP that equilibrates
world crude-like liquids supply with demand for each year. The IEM then
estimates new world crude-like liquids supply curves based on exogenous,
expected U.S. and world crude-like liquids supply and demand curves and
that incorporate any changes in U.S. crude-like liquids production or consumption
projected by other NEMS modules. Operationally, IEM passes to PMM an array
of nine points of this supply curve, with the equilibrium point being the
fifth point of this array.
Input data into IEM contain the historical percentages of imports of oils,
heavy and light products imported into U.S. from different regions in the
world. Using these values and total imports into the U.S. of crudes, heavy
and light products provided by PMM, IEM generates a report, with imports
by source for every year in the projection.
While the IEM is intended to be executed as a module of the NEMS system,
and utilizing its complete capabilities and features requires a NEMS interface,
it is also possible to execute the IEM module on a stand-alone basis.
In stand-alone mode, the IEM calculates the WOP based on an exogenously
specified projection of U.S. crude-like liquids production and consumption.
Sensitivity analyses can be conducted to examine the response of the world
oil market to changes in oil price, production capacity, and demand. To
summarize, the model searches for the WOP that equilibrates crude-like
liquids supply and demand at the world level.
Based on the final results
for U.S. total liquids production and consumption, IEM also provides an
International Petroleum Supply and Disposition Summary table for world
conventional and unconventional liquids production as well as for world
liquids demand by region. Exogenous data used to build this report is
contained in omsinput.wk1 file. Each scenario has its own version of this
file.
Because U.S. production and consumption of conventional liquids are dynamic
values (output from NEMS), all other world regions have been proportionally
updated such that the world liquids production and consumption reflect
the corresponding value as in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). |