U.S. gasoline prices are down from 2022 heading into Memorial Day weekend
Note: Real prices were calculated using the Consumer Price Index and were based on the methodology described in the Short-Term Energy Outlook, Real Prices Viewer.
The retail price for regular-grade gasoline in the United States on May 22, the Monday before Memorial Day weekend, averaged $3.53 per gallon (gal), 26% (or $1.24/gal) lower than the inflation-adjusted price a year ago. Memorial Day gasoline prices last year were the highest since 2012. The American Automobile Association (AAA) expects 6% more miles traveled this Memorial Day weekend compared with last year because of lower gasoline prices. Although retail gasoline prices have come down from a year ago, they remain higher than during the period from 2019 through 2021.
Tags: prices, gasoline, liquid fuels, crude oil, oil/petroleum
EIA explores effects of liquefied natural gas exports on the U.S. natural gas market
Note: Shaded regions represent maximum and minimum values for each projection year across the AEO2023 Reference case and side cases. LNG=liquefied natural gas.
In our Issues in Focus: Effects of Liquefied Natural Gas Exports on the U.S. Natural Gas Market supplement to our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023), we find that the volumes of liquefied natural gas exports (LNG) do affect average U.S. natural gas prices. However, the resulting range in natural gas prices in our new cases was narrower than the price range in recent history and the AEO2023 side cases despite a wide variety of U.S. LNG export volumes.
In 2021, Algeria produced record amounts of natural gas
In 2021, more natural gas was produced in Algeria than in any year since record-keeping began in 1980, according to the data in our recently updated Country Analysis Brief: Algeria. Algeria produced 9.9 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of dry natural gas in 2021, a 23.4% increase from the 8.0 Bcf/d the country produced in 2011. Of the natural gas produced in 2021, 53% was exported. Although the overall volume of exports was greater in 2021 compared with 2011, the percentage exported in 2021 was smaller than in 2011, when 60% of Algeria’s natural gas was exported. Domestic consumption has increased over the last decade, but recent upgrades to export infrastructure capacity give Algeria the option to export more of its natural gas.
EIA expects lower crude oil prices for the second half of 2023 and for 2024
We lowered our crude oil price forecast for the rest of 2023 and for 2024 in our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) because of relatively rapid declines in the crude oil price since April. Between April 12, 2023, and May 4, 2023, the Brent crude oil price fell $16 per barrel (b) to $73/b; the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price fell $15/b to $69/b. We expect that a drop in OPEC production and increases in demand will lead to relatively moderate price increases over the next few months.
Texas and New Mexico led U.S. crude oil production in 2022
Reposted to correct data errors.
U.S. crude oil production grew 5.6%, or 0.6 million barrels per day (b/d), in 2022 compared with 2021, averaging 11.9 million b/d according to our Monthly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Production report. The two states the Permian Basin spans—Texas and New Mexico—contributed the most growth to U.S. crude oil production in 2022.
U.S. propane consumption last winter was the lowest since at least 2010
Note: Propane consumption is measured as product supplied.
We estimate that U.S. propane consumption averaged 0.986 million barrels per day (b/d) during the 2022–23 winter heating season (October through March), the least for a winter heating season on record, starting in 2010. Reduced average winter U.S. propane consumption was influenced by less consumption during the coldest winter months of December, January, and February. Based on our recently released Petroleum Supply Monthly, U.S. propane consumption during those three months averaged 1.07 million b/d, also the least since 2010. The lower consumption is primarily the result of warmer-than-normal temperatures during the winter. The consumption of propane is closely correlated with temperature in the United States during the winter and the resulting demand for heating.
U.S. Henry Hub natural gas price expected to increase from recent lows
In our May Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), we expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to increase throughout 2023 from its recent lows. In April, the Henry Hub price averaged $2.16 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). We expect the monthly average Henry Hub price to reach $3.71/MMBtu in December. Forecast prices throughout the rest of the year remain much lower compared with last year, averaging $2.91/MMBtu for the year, a more than 50% decline from the 2022 average price of $6.42/MMBtu, according to our May STEO.
Tags: prices, monthly, natural gas, Henry Hub
Incentives and lower costs drive electric vehicle adoption in our Annual Energy Outlook
According to our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023), we project that electric vehicles (EVs), including both battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), will account for between 13% and 29% of new light-duty vehicle sales in the United States in 2050 and between 11% and 26% of on-road light-duty vehicle stocks. Declines in EV component costs, along with federal and state policies that provide incentives for EV purchases or require minimum sales, drive EV sales growth in our model projection.
EIA projects coal capacity will decrease in our Annual Energy Outlook 2023
Our Annual Energy Outlook 2023 (AEO2023) projects that U.S. coal-fired generating capacity will drop below half of 2022 levels by 2050.
Mixed water supply condition across western states affects 2023 hydropower outlook
Record-breaking rain and snow in parts of the western United States contribute to our forecast 72% rise in hydropower generation in California this year compared with last year, according to our latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). However, below-normal precipitation and a mixed water supply outlook in the Pacific Northwest, which generates a significant portion of the country's hydropower, offset the forecast increase in hydropower generation in California.