Today in Energy

December 5, 2012

EIA to release AEO2013 Reference case today

Image of the 2013 AEO, as explained in the article text
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Later today, EIA will issue its Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) Reference case, which focuses on the drivers that shape U.S. energy markets under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain generally unchanged throughout the projection period. The complete AEO2013, to be released in early 2013, will include many alternative cases in recognition of the uncertainty inherent in making projections about energy markets, which in part arises from assumptions about policies and other market drivers such as trends in prices and economic growth. An updated Today in Energy article with results from the AEO Early Release will be available at 1:00 p.m. today.

Key updates made for the AEO2013 Reference case include the following:

  • Extension of the projection period through 2040, an additional 5 years beyond AEO2012.
  • A revised outlook for industrial production to reflect the impacts of increased shale gas production and lower natural gas prices, which result in faster growth for industrial production and energy consumption. The industries affected include, in particular, bulk chemicals and primary metals.
  • Adoption of final model year 2017 to 2025 greenhouse gas emissions and corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards for light-duty vehicles (LDVs), which increases the projected combined fuel economy of new LDVs to 47.3 mpg in 2025.
  • Updated modeling of liquefied natural gas export potential.
  • Updated power generation unit costs that capture recent cost declines for some renewable technologies, which tend to lead to greater use of renewable generation, particularly solar technologies.

A live webcast of the AEO press conference will be available at 1:00 p.m. EST.