Recent export data show differences between our weekly and monthly estimates

In our February release of the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM), we report that the United States exported slightly more than 9.6 million barrels per day (b/d) of crude oil and petroleum products during December 2021. This volume of exports surpassed the all-time record of slightly less than 9.6 million b/d in February 2020 (Figure 1). The export volumes in the PSM were 1.7 million b/d higher than preliminary exports reported in our Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), in which we estimated that exports averaged 7.9 million b/d in December.

On an ongoing basis, we analyze and compare petroleum and biofuel export estimates published in the WPSR and the export estimates published in our PSM that we use as benchmarks. Our most recent analysis suggests that we likely underestimated export quantities for most products (including crude oil, finished motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, propane/propylene, and other oils) in WPSR for November 2021 through the week ending February 18, 2022. We use information from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) in our WPSR estimates and are consulting with them to determine the cause. However, we believe that the corresponding PSM export estimates for November and December 2021 are accurate. Detailed information on the statistical methodologies used to produce exports data in WPSR and PSM are available in WPSR Appendix D and PSM Appendix B.

Unlike for our other weekly petroleum statistics, such as stocks, imports, and refinery inputs, we do not collect survey statistics for weekly exports from respondents. As a result, volumes in the WPSR were modeled estimates until mid-2016, when we began incorporating export data from the CBP’s Automated Commercial Environment System (ACE). Export data in the PSM, on the other hand, reflect official U.S. export statistics collected by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.

In general, we do not revise and republish WPSR data. However, we may revise WPSR to correct known errors or Office of Management and Budget approved compositional changes. Any changes to WPSR data series are identified with a note.

In addition to potential changes in WPSR export estimation, This Week in Petroleum (TWIP) is making changes this week in response to our reader survey, which we conducted in mid-2021. The tabs across the top of the TWIP web page link to tables and charts for various WPSR series. Starting this week, we will include weekly exports from the WPSR for crude oil, finished motor gasoline, distillate, and propane. Other changes to the TWIP web page include replacing the text on gasoline and diesel retail price changes by U.S. region with a data table and chart. We will also eliminate the text on propane inventory changes. This information will continue to be available in the propane tab on the top of the web page. Lastly, we will no longer publish text related to residential heating oil and propane price changes on the TWIP web page. These price changes will still be included when we publish them during the winter heating season months of October through March in the distillate or propane tabs.

For questions about This Week in Petroleum, contact the Petroleum Markets Team at 202-586-4522.