U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis

Petroleum & Other Liquids

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This Week in Petroleum

Release date: January 4, 2019 | Next release date: January 9, 2019

This Week in Petroleum: Best of 2018

Today's This Week in Petroleum articles were originally published throughout 2018. New feature articles of This Week in Petroleum will return on January 9. The accompanying charts and tables have been updated to reflect data from the latest Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending December 28, 2018.

(Published May 2) U.S. Gulf Coast port restrictions impose additional costs on U.S. crude oil exports

U.S. crude oil exports averaged 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2017, an increase of 527,000 b/d from 2016. This acceleration in export growth happened despite the fact that U.S. Gulf Coast ports cannot fully load Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCC), the largest and most economic vessels used for crude oil transportation. Instead, export growth was achieved by using smaller and less cost-effective ships. Although much of the current focus has been on pipeline constraints limiting the amount of crude oil that can reach the U.S. Gulf Coast, potential shipping limitations are also relevant.

(Published February 14) Economic indicators can inform non-OECD liquid fuels consumption forecasts

Liquid fuels consumption & GDP growth

Increases in economic activity are typically associated with growth in petroleum and other liquids consumption. EIA lowered the 2018 oil-consumption-weighted Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast in countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in the February 2018 Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) from the January STEO, but growth expectations for those countries remain higher than all 2017 STEO forecasts. In the February STEO, EIA expects global petroleum and other liquid fuels consumption to grow by 1.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018, with 1.3 million b/d of that growth coming from non-OECD countries (Figure 1). Because oil consumption data can be lagged or incomplete, the use of frequently released economic indicators can be useful for confirming stronger or weaker periods of economic growth and inform oil consumption forecasts.

(Published August 22) U.S. distillate demand highest since 2007

Average U.S. distillate product supplied (January - May)

U.S. demand for distillate fuel oil is at its highest level in more than a decade. During the first five months of 2018, U.S. distillate fuel oil product supplied (the volume delivered out of the primary supply chain, which is a proxy for demand) averaged 4.2 million barrels per day (b/d), an increase of more than 270,000 b/d from the 2017 level and the highest level since 2007 (Figure 1). This strong U.S. demand is supporting distillate prices, crack spreads, and production. At the same time, U.S. distillate exports are down from record-high levels set in 2017. Despite record refinery runs runs and lower exports, distillate inventories in the United States have declined because consumption has outpaced the rate at which inventories have been replenished.

(Published January 18) Pipeline constraints likely affecting Canadian crude oil prices, Cushing inventories

Western Canada Select crude oil price minus West Texas Intermediate

Pipeline constraints have probably resulted in Western Canada Select (WCS) crude oil prices trading at their lowest levels compared with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices in nearly three and a half years. The constraints have likely contributed to the increase in crude oil shipments by rail, a more expensive form of transportation that is ultimately reflected in the WCS–WTI price spread. Reduced pipeline flows from Canada could also be a factor in the recent reduction in crude oil stocks in Cushing, Oklahoma, which declined by 22 million barrels (34%) since the beginning of November and were 17% below their five-year average as of January 12, 2018.

U.S. average regular gasoline and diesel prices decrease

U.S. average regular gasoline and diesel prices decrease The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price decreased nearly 6 cents from last week to $2.27 per gallon on December 31, 2018, down more than 25 cents per gallon from the same time last year. Midwest prices fell nearly 8 cents to $2.01 per gallon, Rocky Mountain and Gulf Coast prices each decreased nearly 6 cents to $2.43 per gallon and $1.93 per gallon, respectively, East Coast prices decreased nearly 5 cents to $2.25 per gallon, and West Coast prices fell more than 3 cents to $3.05 per gallon.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price decreased nearly 3 cents from last week to $3.05 per gallon on December 31, 2018, 8 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. Rocky Mountain and Midwest prices each fell nearly 4 cents to $3.07 per gallon and $2.91 per gallon, respectively, West Coast and Gulf Coast prices decreased nearly 3 cents to $3.56 per gallon and $2.84 per gallon, respectively, and East Coast prices fell more than 2 cents to $3.11 per gallon.

Propane/propylene inventories decline

U.S. propane/propylene stocks decreased by 1.6 million barrels last week to 70.7 million barrels as of December 28, 2018, 4.5 million barrels (6.0%) lower than the five-year (2013-2017) average inventory level for this same time of year. Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain/West Coast, Midwest, and East Coast inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels, 0.3 million barrels, 0.2 million barrels, and 0.1 million barrels, respectively. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 7.2% of total propane/propylene inventories.

Residential heating fuel prices decrease

As of December 31, 2018, residential heating oil prices averaged $3.10 per gallon, almost 3 cents per gallon less than last week’s price but nearly 2 cents per gallon higher than last year’s price at this time. The average wholesale heating oil price for this week averaged almost $1.78 per gallon, 7 cents per gallon less than last week and 40 cents per gallon lower than a year ago.

Residential propane prices averaged $2.43 per gallon, less than 1 cent per gallon lower than last week and nearly 9 cents per gallon lower than a year ago. Wholesale propane prices averaged $0.79 per gallon, less than 1 cent per gallon lower than last week and nearly 33 cents per gallon below last year’s price.