Release date: January 5, 2017  |  Next release date: January 11, 2017

EIA now using near-real-time export data to provide better weekly petroleum consumption statistics

Starting with the August 31 release of the Weekly Petroleum Status Report (WPSR), EIA is now publishing weekly export and petroleum consumption estimates based on near-real-time export data provided by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). EIA, which collects weekly data on inventories, refinery and blender net production, and imports but does not collect weekly export data, had previously relied on weekly export estimates developed from monthly official export data published by the U.S. Census Bureau (USCB) roughly six weeks following the end of each reporting month. Differences between the weekly export estimates developed using the old methodology and the actual export data subsequently published by USCB that are directly incorporated in the Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) for that month have been the largest source of disconnect between the weekly and monthly petroleum balance data. Therefore, the use of near-real-time export data should reduce differences between EIA's weekly petroleum balance estimates and the monthly values.

Export data are an important component for the calculation of EIA's weekly estimates of U.S. consumption of petroleum products. EIA calculates U.S. consumption (measured as product supplied) for petroleum products as:

Consumption = Production + Imports - Stocks Change - Exports.

U.S. exports of crude oil, petroleum products, and biofuels increased from 1 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2004 to an annual average of nearly 5 million b/d in 2015 (Figure 1). With increased volumes and volatility, exports have become a more critical component for market assessment and calculation of U.S. consumption of key petroleum products such as gasoline and distillate.

The old methodology for weekly exports, which heavily reflected lagged monthly export data, consistently underestimated total crude oil, petroleum, and biofuel exports in recent months, causing an overstatement of U.S. consumption in the weekly balances over this period. Through the first six months of 2016, the weekly total crude oil, petroleum products, and biofuels exports were 16% lower than actual exports subsequently reported by USCB and included in the PSM. The new methodology, using near-real-time data from CBP, is much closer to the actual export data shown in the PSM for this period (Figure 2).

The difference between the old and new weekly methodologies differs across individual products, with the new methodology providing a particularly significant improvement in the estimate of finished motor gasoline exports for the first six months of 2016 (Figure 3).

As noted above, a key motivation for developing new weekly export estimates is to provide better weekly consumption estimates. Table 1 compares monthly consumption data from the PSM for the first six months of 2016, measured as product supplied, with two versions of the weekly data — the weekly data that was published using the old WPSR methodology and a recalculated version using EIA's new weekly export methodology. The comparisons are made using the product breakdown provided in the WPSR, which includes finished motor gasoline, distillate fuel oil, kerosene-type jet fuel, residual fuel oil, propane/propylene, and an "other oils" category that is further disaggregated in the PSM.

The recalculated weekly consumption data correspond more closely to the monthly data than those developed using the old export methodology (Table 1). There continue to be some differences between the weekly and monthly data, because the new weekly export estimates still do not exactly correspond to the monthly USCB export data and because there continue to be minor differences between the weekly sampled survey data for the nonexport categories and the monthly data because of standard sampling and statistical issues. Historically, these latter differences have been relatively minor, with export data being the largest source of disconnect between the weekly and monthly balances.

	PSM	Old WPSR method	New WPSR method	PSM minus old WPSR	PSM minus new WPSR	Old WPSR % difference	New WPSR % difference
Finished motor gasoline	9,263	9,380	9,181	-116	83	-1.3%	0.9%
Distillate fuel oil	3,856	3,763	3,838	93	18	2.4%	0.5%
Kerosene-type jet fuel	1,557	1,593	1,581	-36	-24	-2.3%	-1.5%
Residual fuel oil	360	298	454	63	-93	17.4%	-25.9%
Propane/propylene	1,142	1,189	1,077	-47	65	-4.1%	5.7%
Other oils	3,260	3,735	3,259	-475	1	-14.6%	0.0%
Total	19,438	19,957	19,389	-519	49	2.7%	0.3%
Table 1. Product supplied, January-June 2016 average thousand barrels per day
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration.

Companies exporting products from the United States are generally required to file transaction data with CBP, except in cases where Canada is the destination country. This information is then included in CBP's Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) system. EIA is now receiving raw ACE data from CBP and grouping the transactions into weekly report periods that match report periods used on EIA's weekly petroleum and biofuels surveys. USCB uses the same data to develop its monthly International Trade in Goods and Service report (FT900), a principal economic indicator.

Because the CBP data are not edited and do not include exports to Canada, EIA developed its own validation and edit procedures and added estimates for transactions not reported through ACE. The edits include mapping ACE product codes to EIA's product codes, converting exported quantities into barrels (when not already reported this way), using daily spot prices from Thomson-Reuters to validate the dollar value per barrel to identify outlier values, and identifying and excluding duplicate values. For products with significant exports to Canada (crude oil, other oils, and residual fuel oil) that are not fully reported through ACE, the new WPSR method incorporates estimates derived from a combination of available ACE information and published monthly export values from the PSM.

EIA's weekly export estimates are not expected to exactly correspond to the monthly USCB data that are subsequently published because EIA uses its own edits for the raw data, is unable to validate reported ACE data directly with export filers, and must still make adjustments to account for exports to Canada that are not fully reported through ACE. However, the new methodology should significantly improve EIA's weekly estimates of petroleum consumption.

EIA worked closely with other federal agencies over several years to gain access to this information and approval to use it to improve weekly export estimates. EIA established a Memorandum of Understanding with CBP through the International Trade Data System process in 2014 and subsequently obtained approval from the USCB to access the export data. After resolving system security and access issues, EIA began receiving the raw transactional data in the ACE system this February. Earlier this month, the Office of Management and Budget granted EIA permission to publish weekly reports on the export volumes of crude oil and six refined petroleum and biofuel products in advance of the release of the monthly USCB trade data.

U.S. average regular gasoline and diesel retail prices climb

The U.S. average regular gasoline retail price rose seven cents from the previous week to $2.38 per gallon on January 2, up 35 cents from the same time last year. The East Coast, Midwest, and Gulf Coast prices each rose seven cents to $2.39 per gallon, $2.35 per gallon, and $2.15 per gallon, respectively. The West Coast and Rocky Mountain prices each rose six cents to $2.65 per gallon and $2.23 per gallon, respectively.

The U.S. average diesel fuel price rose five cents to $2.59 per gallon on January 2, 38 cents higher than a year ago. The East Coast and Midwest prices each rose five cents to $2.63 per gallon and $2.54 per gallon, respectively. The West Coast price rose four cents to $2.85 per gallon, the Gulf Coast price rose three cents to $2.45 per gallon, and the Rocky Mountain price rose two cents to $2.54 per gallon.

Propane inventories fall

U.S. propane stocks decreased by 2.7 million barrels last week to 84.1 million barrels as of December 30, 2016, 12.2 million barrels (12.7%) lower than a year ago. Midwest, Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountain/West Coast, and East Coast inventories decreased by 1.1 million barrels, 1.0 million barrels, 0.4 million barrels, and 0.3 million barrels, respectively. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 5.5% of total propane inventories.

Residential heating fuel prices increase

As of January 2, 2017, residential heating oil prices averaged $2.63 per gallon, nearly five cents per gallon more than last week's price and 45 cents per gallon higher than last year at this time. The average wholesale heating oil price is nearly $1.81 per gallon, up almost five cents per gallon from last week and 62 cents per gallon higher than a year ago.

Residential propane prices averaged $2.27 per gallon, up nearly six cents per gallon from last week and 27 cents per gallon more than a year ago. Wholesale propane prices averaged nearly $0.86 per gallon, up almost six cents per gallon from last week and just under 40 cents per gallon higher than last year's price.

For questions about This Week in Petroleum, contact the Petroleum Markets Team at 202-586-4522.

---

Retail prices (dollars per gallon)

	Retail prices	Change from last
	01/02/17	Week	Year
Gasoline	2.377	0.068	0.349
Diesel	2.586	0.046	0.375
Heating Oil	2.632	0.045	0.450
Propane	2.271	0.058	0.270

---

Futures prices (dollars per gallon*)

	Futures prices	Change from last
	12/30/16	Week	Year
Crude oil	53.72	0.70	NA
Gasoline	1.665	0.039	NA
Heating oil	1.704	0.041	NA
*Note: Crude oil price in dollars per barrel.

---

Stocks (million barrels)

	Stocks	Change from last
	12/30/16	Week	Year
Crude oil	479.0	-7.1	28.1
Gasoline	235.5	8.3	3.5
Distillate	161.7	10.1	2.3
Propane	84.123	-2.746	-12.218