Released:  May 21, 2014
Next Release:  May 29, 2014

U.S. imports of crude oil from Africa fell by more than 90 percent between 2010 and early 2014

African crude oil exports to the United States averaged 170,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) for the first four months of 2014 as rapidly rising U.S. crude production has reduced U.S. refiner demand for imported light sweet crude oil. Historically, U.S. refiners have been major consumers of African crude oil, primarily light sweet crude from Nigeria, Algeria, and Angola, with the United States taking 2 million bbl/d, or about one-quarter, of African crude exports as recently as 2010. African exports to other global regions reflect both changes in exports to the United States and the repeated and extended disruptions in Libyan production that have occurred since 2011. African crude that until recently flowed to the United States has been diverted to serve European markets that have historically been served by Libya and to supply increased demand in Asian markets where, despite Libyan disruptions, deliveries of African crude have increased (Figure 1).

European refiners have historically imported substantial volumes of light sweet crude oil from Africa (2.2 million bbl/d in 2010), including over three-quarters of Libyan exports (1.1 million bbl/d in 2010). With most Libyan crude oil off the market, exports to Europe from the rest of Africa have increased by more than 700,000 bbl/d from 2010. European imports of crude oil from Africa have also increased to offset the 900,000 bbl/d decline in North Sea crude oil production since 2010. As a result, despite much lower imports of Libyan crude oil, total European imports of African crude oil in 2014 have fallen by only 100,000 bbl/d since 2010.

African crude exports to Asia have increased by more than 200,000 bbl/d since 2010. So far in 2014, exports to Asia from African countries other than Libya have increased by 400,000 bbl/d compared to 2010 levels, more than offsetting the decline in Libyan supply to Asia (Figure 2). Higher refinery runs to satisfy growing regional petroleum product demand have increased crude flows to Asia.

China imported more than 1.2 million bbl/d of crude oil from Africa during the first four months of 2014, 22% of total African crude oil exports, and is now the world´s largest importer of African crude oil. Growth in demand for oil products and the expansion of Chinese refining capacity, which increased by 900,000 bbl/d in 2013 and is expected to increase by an additional 500,000 bbl/d in 2014, have driven rising Chinese demand for crude oil imports.

With U.S. crude production expected to increase by an additional 1 million bbl/d in 2014, it is likely that U.S. imports of African crude oil will remain low compared to historic levels. However, refiner crude selection decisions are based on relative crude economics, and U.S. refiners could import additional African crude oil should the economics of African crude streams become more favorable.

The level of demand for African crude in Europe is also somewhat uncertain. EIA´s May Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts European demand to fall in 2014 and stagnate in 2015, which would limit European refiners´ demand for crude. Perhaps the most important question surrounding the flow of African crude oil to global markets is how global oil trade flows would accommodate the return of substantial Libyan exports. Such production would likely displace current European demand for crude from other African producers. Under such circumstances, Asian markets, which together with the Middle East are expected to account for much of the expected growth in global oil demand, would likely be an increasingly important outlet for African light sweet crudes.

Gasoline prices mixed, diesel fuel prices decrease
The U.S. average price for regular gasoline decreased by less than a penny last week to remain at $3.67 per gallon as of May 19, 2014, down nearly one cent from this time last year. The East Coast led the decline with a decrease of two cents to $3.66 per gallon. The West Coast price decreased a penny to $4.02 per gallon, while the Rocky Mountain price decreased less than a cent to remain at $3.51 per gallon. The Midwest moved opposite with an increase of two cents to $3.61 per gallon, and the Gulf Coast increased by less than a penny but remained at $3.44 per gallon.

U.S. diesel fuel prices decreased across the country, down more than one cent to $3.93 per gallon, four cents more than at the same time last year. The Midwest and Rocky Mountain prices fell by two cents, to $3.90 and $3.95 per gallon respectively. The Gulf Coast, East Coast and West Coast prices each decreased by a penny, to $3.79, $4.03 and $4.03 per gallon respectively.

Propane inventories gain
U.S. propane stocks increased by 2.2 million barrels last week to 39.9 million barrels as of May 16, 2014, 4.1 million barrels (9.2%) lower than a year ago. Gulf Coast inventories increased by 1.3 million barrels and Midwest inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels. East Coast inventories and Rocky Mountain/ West Coast inventories both remained unchanged. Propylene non-fuel-use inventories represented 9.5% of total propane inventories.

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