November 24, 2010
(Next Release on December 1, 2010)

Gasoline Price Pass-Through

Petroleum products typically change hands several times between production at the refinery and eventual consumption. Product prices increase with each intermediate sale, as each participant along the supply and marketing chain incurs costs and seeks to make a profit.

The spot market is often the first pricing point for petroleum products. At this level, sales of product for immediate delivery take place at a convenient transfer point, such as a refinery, port, or pipeline junction. The spot price for a product reflects the cost of crude oil and other inputs to refiners as well as the costs and profits of processing that crude oil into products. Spot price changes for crude oil and refined products are almost simultaneous, as shown in Figure 1. However there is a discernable lag between product spot price change and retail price change.

Figure 1.   Crude oil and refined product spot prices typically
                       move together

When consumers hear about crude oil or product spot prices rising, they expect their retail product prices to rise. As shown in Figure 2, significant changes in product spot prices usually lead to changes at the retail level. EIA estimates made with a distributed lag model show that, at a regional level, the price pass-through from the spot to the retail market is complete within 2½ months, with about 50 percent of the change occurring within two weeks and 80 percent within four weeks.

Figure 2.   Retail prices follow spot prices, with a time delay

Retail gasoline and diesel prices decrease
The U.S. average retail price for a gallon of gasoline dropped for the first time in three weeks, decreasing about one and a half cents from last week to $2.88 per gallon, $0.24 per gallon higher than last year at this time. The decline was sharpest in the Midwest, where prices were a nickel lower than last week. Gulf Coast gasoline prices fell three cents from the week before, followed by the Rocky Mountains where prices were down over a cent. Prices on the West Coast were flat, remaining at $3.11 per gallon, the highest in the country. In a week where prices were generally lower, the East Coast saw prices jump almost two cents versus last week.

The average retail diesel price was down more than a penny versus last week, with the national average for a gallon of diesel now at $3.17 per gallon, $0.38 higher than last year at this time. This was largest decrease in the national average in 12 weeks. Prices fell across all of the major regions, led by the East Coast where prices fell one and a half cents from last week. The Gulf Coast, Rocky Mountains, and West Coast all saw declines equal to the national average decrease, while the Midwest was also about a penny lower than last week. Prices on the West Coast remained the highest in the country at $3.32 per gallon.

Residential Heating Fuel Prices Decrease
Residential heating oil prices decreased during the period ending November 22, 2010. The average residential heating oil price decreased by approximately $0.02 per gallon last week to reach $3.11 per gallon, an increase of $0.36 per gallon from the same time last year. Wholesale heating oil prices decreased by $0.09 per gallon last week, reaching a price just shy of $2.36 per gallon. This is a $0.31 per gallon increase from last year’s price.

The average residential propane price increased by $0.03 per gallon to reach $2.55 per gallon. This was an increase of $0.28 per gallon compared to the $2.27 per gallon average from the same period last year. Wholesale propane prices decreased by $0.05 per gallon from about $1.32 per gallon to $1.27 per gallon. This was an increase of approximately $0.07 per gallon when compared to the November 23, 2009 price of $1.20 per gallon.

Propane Inventories Drop
U.S. inventories of propane experienced a drop of 0.5 million barrels last week to end at 64.2 million barrels total. The Midwest regional stocks fell by 0.4 million barrels while the East Coast region drew 0.1 million barrels of propane. Inventories in the Gulf Coast region were down slightly. The Rocky Mountain/West Coast region added to their stocks slightly. Propylene non-fuel use inventories represented 3.3 percent of total propane inventories.

Text from the previous editions of This Week In Petroleum is accessible through a link at the top right-hand corner of this page.