Released on February 3, 2010
(Next Release on February 10, 2010)

U.S. Petroleum Markets Reverse Course After Early-January Run-up

Six weeks ago, the December 23, 2009 issue of This Week in Petroleum focused on the declining trend in gasoline prices from early November through mid-December. However, gasoline prices soon reversed course, and rose more than 16 cents in the following three weeks, before, once again, turning downward. These fluctuations highlight the difficulty of forecasting short run movements, as well as the complexity and occasional unpredictability of petroleum markets.

Petroleum product price movements are influenced in part by underlying crude oil markets, as well as by additional influences on a particular product market that can either offset or amplify the effect of changes in crude oil prices. Thus, if crude oil prices are stable, gasoline prices tend to rise in the spring and decline in the fall, in concert with the gasoline supply/demand balance, while prices for heating fuels generally do the opposite.

In this case, crude oil prices, which had briefly dropped below $70 per barrel (for West Texas Intermediate) in mid-December 2009, rose above $83 per barrel during the first week of January 2010, an increase of about 32 cents per gallon. Accordingly, gasoline wholesale spot prices jumped more than 30 cents per gallon over the same period, while retail prices, which lag changes in spot prices, rose 16 cents. Since late in the first week of January, petroleum spot and futures prices have fallen by about $9 per barrel (or around 22 cents per gallon), while spot gasoline prices fell by about 19 cents per gallon. The average retail regular gasoline price of $2.66 per gallon in EIA’s latest weekly retail price survey reflects a decline of 9 cents per gallon over the last three weeks, with further downward pressure likely, assuming crude oil prices remain at current levels.

Although a major shift in winter weather has relatively little impact on gasoline demand, its impact on heating fuels, in the United States and globally, is one factor that can affect crude oil markets. Early, severe winter weather likely played a part in the year-end uptick in crude oil prices, along with other factors, including increased optimism over the pace and sustainability of U.S. and global economic recovery, and its expected impact on petroleum demand in the coming months. By mid-January, however, temperatures had moderated; U.S. average heating degree-days for the week ending January 23 were 21 percent warmer than normal, compared to 24 percent colder than normal only two weeks earlier.

What, if anything, do the fluctuations of the past month portend for the remainder of the winter? Weather will be a factor – despite recent milder temperatures, some of the coldest winter weather usually occurs in February, so significant heating demand is yet to come. Additionally, the pace of economic recovery and expectations regarding future economic trends will continue to be an influence, here and abroad, while high inventories and lackluster demand, among other factors, will tend to restrain prices. Beyond these factors, EIA is also interested in assessing the role of other market influences, such as speculation, hedging, investment, and exchange rates, as discussed in the January 27 issue of This Week in Petroleum.

While the very recent direction of U.S. petroleum markets in general, and gasoline prices specifically, has been moderately downward, it would not be too surprising to see further changes in direction over the remainder of the winter.

Prices for Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Drop Again
For the third week in a row, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline declined. Settling at $2.66 per gallon, the average fell more than four cents but was $0.77 above last year. On the East Coast, the price slipped almost four cents to $2.69 per gallon. The average in the Midwest dropped the most of any region, tumbling six cents to $2.56 per gallon. The average on the Gulf Coast remained the lowest in the country, dropping about a nickel to $2.54 per gallon. The smallest decline took place in the Rocky Mountains where the price dipped less than a penny to $2.62 per gallon. The West Coast average fell three cents to $2.91 per gallon and the price in California slipped three cents to $2.98 per gallon.

Diesel prices also dropped for the third consecutive week, with the national average falling a nickel to $2.78 per gallon although it was $0.54 above a year ago. Diesel prices fell in all regions of the country as the East Coast dropped a nickel to $2.83 per gallon. In the Midwest and on the Gulf Coast, the averages decreased nearly six cents to $2.73 and $2.74 per gallon, respectively. The Rocky Mountain price slipped two cents to $2.80 per gallon. A drop of four cents took the average on the West Coast to $2.88 per gallon, while the average in California slipped four cents to $2.95 per gallon.

Propane Stocks Experience Another Drop
The Nation’s primary supply of propane was drawn down by about 15.6 million barrels during January, a volume that was more than 31 percent above the most recent 5-year average of nearly 11.9 million barrels. Inventories of propane fell again, by 3.0 million barrels, bringing the U.S. total to 33.9 million barrels as of January 29, 2010. The Midwest region led the way with the largest weekly decline of 1.5 million barrels. The Gulf Coast regional stocks drew 0.8 million barrels, while the East Coast and Rocky Mountain/West Coast regions declined 0.5 and 0.2 million barrels, respectively. Propylene non-fuel use inventories increased their share of total propane/propylene stocks from 8.4 percent to 8.6 percent.

Residential Heating Oil Prices Decrease
Residential heating oil prices decreased during the week ending February 1, 2010. The average residential heating oil price dropped 3.1 cents per gallon to reach 286.7 cents per gallon, but was still 47.8 cents per gallon higher than the same time last year. Wholesale heating oil prices fell 2.2 cents per gallon to reach 200.6 cents per gallon, 44.2 cents per gallon higher than at this time last year.

The average residential propane price rose 0.7 cent per gallon to reach 268.2 cents per gallon. This was an increase of 35.8 cents per gallon compared to the same period last year. Wholesale propane prices increased 2.3 cents per gallon to reach 145.6 cents per gallon. This was an increase of 49.2 cents per gallon when compared to the February 2, 2009 price of 96.4 cents per gallon.

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