Released on June 24, 2009
(Next Release on July 1, 2009)

U.S. Oil Demand and Import Sources: Recent Developments and Key Factors Affecting the Future

With high oil prices and the economic recession, both U.S. and global oil demand declined in 2008. In the United States, domestic crude oil production, refinery outputs, finished product net imports, and crude oil imports all declined from prior year levels.

Historically, U.S. petroleum demand peaked in 2005 at 20.8 million barrels per day (bbl/d), remained relatively flat in 2006-07, and then dropped to 19.4 million bbl/d in 2008. As a general rule, U.S. petroleum product demand tends to be met first by domestic refinery output, with finished product imports satisfying the remainder. (This is something of an oversimplification; sometimes nearer and cheaper product imports from Canada, Mexico, the Caribbean, or even Europe displace U.S. refinery production.) U.S. refinery inputs, in turn, tend to be satisfied by domestic crude oil production first, and imports second. Consequently, we tend to think of the requirement for crude oil imports to the United States as largely the remainder of U.S. refinery crude oil requirements less domestic crude production. Any crude oil imports over or under this level tend to make crude oil inventories (stocks) rise or fall.

In 2008, U.S. crude oil refinery inputs dropped by 511 thousand bbl/d, and domestic crude oil production decreased by 109 thousand bbl/d, leaving a decrease in the “need” for crude oil imports of 402 thousand bbl/d. However, crude oil imports fell by only 275 thousand bbl/d, and crude oil stocks grew. (Crude oil exports are negligible.)

Turning to the sources of crude oil, Figures 1 and 2 show trends in crude supply from various world regions since 2000. About half of U.S. supply has been coming from the Western Hemisphere (Canada, Mexico and South America combined). Canada has generally been a growing source of U.S. imports since the early 1980’s, and in 2008 represented about 40 percent of Western Hemisphere supply. At the same time, imports from Mexico and Venezuela, which averaged about 57 percent share of Western Hemisphere crude supply from 2000-2005 to the U.S., have been declining. In 2008, these two countries were down to about 46 percent of Western Hemisphere supply. Brazilian supplies have increased and are expected to continue to increase in the future, but represented less than 5 percent of Western Hemisphere crude oil imports to the U.S. in 2008. Outside the Western Hemisphere, supplies from Europe have declined with North Sea production, while supplies from Africa (e.g., Algeria and Angola) have grown. The Middle East remains a major source of supply to the U.S., providing over 24 percent of our crude imports in 2008.

Turning to 2009, crude oil imports continued to decline during the first quarter 2009, dropping 235 thousand bbl/d from first quarter 2008. Figure 3 shows the changes in imports between first quarter 2009 and 2008. One significant change from the longer term trend has been a decline in crude oil imports sourced from the Middle East, mainly reflecting a decline in imports from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. U.S. crude imports from Saudi Arabia dropped to 944 thousand bbl/d in March 2009, their lowest level since November 1988. Declines in African imports also stand out. Most of the first quarter decline in imports from Africa stemmed from the loss of supplies from Nigeria, which dropped almost 500 thousand bbl/d as political unrest continued to interrupt production in that country. Increases from Angola and other African countries helped to counter some of that loss. Total U.S. crude imports from members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) fell below 5 million bbl/d in both February and March, the first two consecutive months below that level since 2006.

Historically, economic recovery has led to a rebound in demand for oil. As the U.S. comes out of its current economic downturn, the level of crude oil imports will depend on several key factors. First, U.S. crude oil production is expected to increase, mainly due to the start of operations at several major platforms in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. Second, at least a modest portion of any demand growth will be served by biofuels given the steadily increasing mandate for their use required by the updated renewable fuel standard established by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Third, demand growth resulting from an improved economy will to some extent be offset by requirements for increased fuel efficiency of new vehicles, an effect that will tend to increase over time as the existing vehicle fleet turns over.

Our future crude oil import sources will depend on production trends in the different regions, as well as the mix of oil products demanded by U.S. consumers, which affects the attractiveness of different crude streams to U.S. refiners. With respect to production trends, it is clear that OPEC members in the Middle East, who have absorbed the bulk of production cuts made in the present global economic downturn and are also adding to their production capacity, are well–situated to supply a major portion of the oil that would be required to meet growing global oil demand as the world economy recovers. Over the longer term, decisions made regarding the pace of development in the Canadian oil sands and Brazil’s major offshore resources will also have important implications for the sourcing of U.S. crude oil imports.

U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Prices Still Rising
The national average price for regular gasoline increased for the eighth week in a row. The price rose two cents to $2.69 per gallon, yet even with a cumulative increase over the past eight weeks of 64 cents, the price remained $1.39 below this week last year. For the second consecutive week, prices fell in the Midwest, sliding two cents to settle at $2.66 per gallon. Everywhere else, prices continued to move up. On the East Coast, the price rose four cents to $2.66 per gallon. Despite an increase of three cents to $2.56 per gallon, the average price on the Gulf Coast remained the lowest of any region. In the Rocky Mountains, the price increased three cents to $2.60 per gallon. The price on the West Coast grew four cents to $2.93 per gallon. In California, the average price increased three cents to $3.01 per gallon, the first time the $3 mark was hit this year.

Diesel prices rose for the seventh consecutive week, with the national average price hitting $2.62 cents per gallon, a gain of four cents. That price was $2.03 below the price a year ago. Prices in all regions of the country increased. On the East Coast, the price rose three cents to $2.63 per gallon. The average prices in the Midwest and Gulf Coast each increased four cents to $2.59 and $2.58 per gallon, respectively. The average price in the Rocky Mountains shot up nine cents to $2.61 per gallon, the largest regional increase this week. The average on the West Coast jumped nearly seven cents to $2.72 per gallon. In California, the price rose six cents to $2.79 per gallon.

Propane Posts Robust Weekly Build
The Nation’s primary supply of propane moved sharply higher last week following a robust 3.6-million-barrel build, with inventories settling at an estimated 57.1 million barrels as of June 19, 2009. With last week’s build, total propane inventories are about 17 million barrels above the same period last year and are poised to hit their highest end-of-June level since 2002. The Gulf Coast posted the largest weekly gain that measured 2.8 million barrels, followed by a 0.9-million-barrel build in the Midwest. During this same time, both East Coast inventories and inventories in the combined Rocky Mountain/West Coast region remained relatively unchanged. Moreover, propylene non-fuel use inventories also remained unchanged last week, although the share to total propane/propylene inventories dropped to 3.6 percent from the prior week’s 3.8 percent share.

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