Released on October 31, 2007
(Next Release on November 7, 2007)

What Do We Really Know About College Football or Crude Oil Imports?
Unlike other prominent college football polls, which started issuing weekly polls before the first snap of the college football season, the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) waited for about half the season to play out before issuing their inaugural rankings in mid-October. A comparison of the earlier polls and current rankings shows that some major changes have occurred as the season has unfolded. For example, after two weeks of play, on September 9, 2007, AP and USA Today issued polls with the University of Southern California (USC) and Louisiana State University (LSU) at numbers 1 and 2, respectively, while Ohio State University was ranked at number 10 in the same polls. Now, with 9 weeks of games behind us, Ohio State is undefeated at 9-0 and at the top of the current BCS Poll. LSU, with a loss in overtime to the University of Kentucky, has dropped to number 3, while USC, with losses to Stanford and Oregon, has dropped to number 19. Clearly, assessments based on game results of the first two weeks of the season were shattered by the events of the next seven. The moral of this story is not to read too much into one or two weeks of college football results – what matters is how the games turn out week by week over the entire season. There are still very important games left to be played.

The same long view of things is also useful in looking at EIA’s weekly oil data. In data released last week, EIA data showed crude oil imports dropping to 9.1 million barrels per day for the 7-day period ending October 19, 2007. This low import level caused some concerns among analysts who watch crude oil supplies. However, a low one week number such as this can occur when dealing with data over a 7-day period. Weekly import data are especially prone to timing fluctuations, since imports occur in discrete shipments, unlike refinery production which is a continuous-type process and, therefore, more consistent. This is not as much of an issue for monthly import data, where a longer reporting period smoothes out most timing issues.

It is important to keep this issue of timing in mind when assessing what any given single week’s data mean. It is best in such situations to look at the 4-week averages, which, like monthly data, tend to smooth out such one week timing issues, or other anomalies, hence, better capturing the trend underlining recent data.

Looking at both one-week and the 4-week averages for crude oil imports for each of the last nine weeks illustrates this. The one week crude imports numbers have fluctuated from as low as 9.1 million barrels per day (October 19, 2007) to as high as 10.4 million barrels per day (September 21 and October 12, 2007). But the 4-week averages for the same weeks have remained in a tighter range between about 9.7 million barrels per day and 10.2 million barrels per day. The variation in the 4-week average data for crude imports has been much less than that of the one-week imports data for the same period (see graph below).

Looking at recent data, it is clear that the latest 4-week average number of 9.7 million barrels per day for crude oil imports is still quite close to the narrow range around 10 million barrels per day where the 4-week average has held since the end of August. The 4-week average data for the last several months is likely a better reflection of the sustainable current, and expected near-future, levels of crude oil inflows into the United States than the one week number of 9.1 million barrels per day for the week ending October 19.

Although this week’s crude oil imports were up modestly from last week’s level, both the weekly numbers and their corresponding 4-week averages show a generally declining tendency in recent weeks. Whether that direction is sustained over the following weeks remains to be seen. One thing is certain; like the college football season, we will have to stay tuned, and watch these trends all unfold, week by week, month by month. What is important is that imports will have to climb to higher levels than either the current single week or 4-week average levels if crude stocks are not to decline further as refiners increase throughputs this fall following heavy maintenance.

Residential Heating Fuel Prices Continue To Rise
Residential heating oil prices moved higher yet again, during the period ending October 29, 2007. The average residential heating oil price increased 8.3 cents last week to reach 295.2 cents per gallon, a gain of 56.5 cents from this time last year. Wholesale heating oil prices rose by 10.2 cents to reach 249.6 cents per gallon, an increase of 75.1 cents compared to the same period last year.

The average residential propane price increased 4.0 cents to achieve the mark of 224.8 cents per gallon. This was an increase of 31.5 cents compared to the 193.3 cents per gallon average for this same time last year. Wholesale propane prices increased by 5.0 cents per gallon, from 152.5 to 157.5 cents per gallon. This was a gain of 56.9 cents from the October 23, 2006 price of 100.6 cents per gallon.

Diesel Price Ties Record High
The U.S. average retail price for regular gasoline gained 4.9 cents last week to stop at 287.2 cents per gallon as of October 29, 2007, 65.4 cents higher than last year. All regions were higher with the East Coast price rising 4.5 cents to 283.3 cents per gallon while the Gulf Coast rose 3.2 cents to 273.5 cents per gallon, still the lowest regional price. The Midwest price soared 7.6 cents to land at 286.4 cents per gallon. The Rocky Mountain region increased 2.8 cents to settle at 287.3 cents per gallon. The highest price in the country was on the West Coast where it reached 309.1 cents per gallon, an increase of 2.6 cents this week and 67.7 cents per gallon over last year. The average price for regular grade in California was 315.9 cents per gallon, up 1.6 cents from last week and 72.5 cents per gallon over the previous year.

Retail diesel prices climbed 6.3 cents last week to reach 315.7 cents per gallon, an amount equal to the all-time record high price of October 24, 2005. Regional prices were all higher with the East Coast rising 7.0 cents to hit 314.8 cents per gallon. The Midwest price pushed higher to 312.2 cents per gallon, increasing by 5.5 cents. The Gulf Coast gained 6.8 cents per gallon to move to 306.2 cents per gallon. The Rocky Mountain price increased to 328.1 cents per gallon, a gain of 5.2 cents. Setting a second consecutive record for the West Coast region, prices rose 7.1 cents to hit 339.4 cents per gallon. California prices were up 6.8 cents to 340.6 cents per gallon, establishing another record price for the State.

Propane Inventories Post Strong Gains
Propane stockholders posted unseasonably strong gains last week, as higher production and imports combined to boost inventories to an estimated 61.9 million barrels as of October 26, 2007. Nevertheless, total propane inventories continued to track just below the average range for this time of year. East Coast and Gulf Coast inventories increased by 0.4 million barrels and 0.7 million barrels, respectively, while the Midwest region posted the only weekly loss of 0.2 million barrels. The combined Rocky Mountain/West Coast region gained a modest 0.1 million barrels during this same time. Propylene non-fuel use inventories remained relatively unchanged last week, although its’ share fell to 3.0 percent of total propane/propylene inventories, down from 3.1 percent from the prior week.

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