Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Liquid Fuels

EIA forecasts U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average 15.7 million b/d in the second quarter of 2020, down 4.6 million b/d (23%) from the same period in 2019. The decline reflects travel restrictions and reduced economic activity related to COVID-19 mitigation efforts. EIA expects the largest declines in U.S. oil consumption have already occurred and demand will generally rise during the next 18 months. EIA forecasts U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average 18.4 million b/d in the third quarter of 2020 (down 2.3 million b/d year-over-year) before rising to an average of 19.5 million b/d in 2021. Although that level would be 1.4 million b/d more than EIA’s forecast 2020 consumption, it would be 1.0 million b/d less than the 2019 average.

Declines in U.S. liquid fuels consumption vary across products. EIA expects jet fuel consumption to fall by 64% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2020, while gasoline consumption falls by 26% and distillate consumption falls by 17%. EIA forecasts the consumption of all three fuels to rise in the third quarter and into 2021 but to remain lower than 2019 levels.

EIA estimates U.S. crude oil production fell from a record 12.9 million b/d in November 2019 to 11.4 million b/d in May 2020 as Baker Hughes reported the fewest active drilling wells in the United States in their records which go back to 1987. EIA expects U.S. crude oil production will continue to decline, to 10.6 million b/d in March 2021, then increase slightly through the end of 2021. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 11.6 million b/d in 2020, down 0.7 million b/d from 2019. In 2021, EIA expects U.S. crude oil production will average 10.8 million b/d. This 2020 production decline would mark the first annual decline since 2016. Typically, price changes affect production after about a six-month lag. However, current market conditions have shortened this lag as many producers have already curtailed production and reduced capital spending and drilling in response to lower prices.

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2018	2019	2020projected	2021projected
Crude Oil prices	(dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average	65.06	57.02	35.14	43.88
Brent Spot Average	71.19	64.37	38.02	47.88
Imported Average	61.34	57.94	32.55	41.54
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost	64.48	59.33	35.71	42.91
Retail prices including taxes	(dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline	2.73	2.60	2.07	2.18
Diesel Fuel	3.18	3.06	2.45	2.49
Heating Oil	3.01	3.00	2.43	2.50
Production	(million barrels per day)
Crude Oil	10.99	12.23	11.56	10.84
Natural Gas Plant Liquids	4.37	4.81	4.80	4.77
Fuel Ethanol	1.05	1.03	0.85	0.96
Biodiesel	0.121	0.112	0.110	0.133
Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline	9.33	9.27	8.09	8.70
Distillate Fuel Oil	4.15	4.08	3.66	3.87
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids	3.01	3.13	2.95	3.14
Jet Fuel	1.71	1.74	1.20	1.54
Total Consumption	20.50	20.46	18.06	19.46
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth	2.9	2.3	-7.4	5.1
Heating Degree Days	11.8	0.6	-7.1	3.8
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production	2.5	-0.2	-10.5	2.1

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Related Tables
Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook	PDF
Table SF02. Average Summer Residential Electricity Usage, Prices and Expenditures	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances	PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. crude oil production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks	XLSX	PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption	XLSX	PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids	XLSX	PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions	XLSX	PNG

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