U.S. Energy Information Administration logo
‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: April 10, 2018  |  Next Release Date: May 8, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • For the 2018 April–September summer driving season, EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.74/gallon (gal), up from an average of $2.41/gal last summer (see Summer Fuels Outlook). The higher forecast gasoline prices are primarily the result of higher forecast crude oil prices. For all of 2018, EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.64/gal and gasoline retail prices for all grades to average $2.76/gal, which would result in the average U.S. household spending about $190 (9%) more on motor fuel in 2018 compared with 2017.
  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $66 per barrel (b) in March. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average about $63/b in both 2018 and 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for July 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending April 5, 2018, suggest a range of $52/b to $78/b encompasses the market expectation for July 2018 WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in March, up 260,000 b/d from the February level. Total U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.3 million b/d in 2017. EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average U.S. crude oil production level, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA forecasts that 2019 crude oil production will again increase, averaging 11.4 million b/d.
U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2016201720182019
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 43.3350.7959.3758.68
Brent Spot Average 43.7454.1563.3662.68
Imported Average 38.7049.0056.0155.17
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 40.6950.6858.3557.68
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.152.422.642.61
Diesel Fuel 2.312.652.942.90
Heating Oil 2.102.512.842.85
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 8.869.3210.6911.44
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.513.744.314.64
Fuel Ethanol 1.001.031.031.05
Biodiesel 0.1020.1040.1370.149
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.329.329.359.40
Distillate Fuel Oil 3.883.944.054.13
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids 2.542.602.963.13
Jet Fuel 1.611.681.711.72
Total Consumption 19.6919.8820.3820.70
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 1.52.32.72.8
Heating Degree Days -5.1-1.29.20.7
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 1.73.32.62.2

Interactive Data Viewers

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Data browser ›
Real Prices Viewer ›

Related Articles    
Today In Energy Daily
This Week in Petroleum Weekly
2018 Summer Fuels Outlook Apr-2018 PDF
2017-2018 Winter Fuels Outlook Oct-2017 PDF
2014 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages Jun-2014 PDF
Energy-weighted industrial production indices Mar-2014 PDF
Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook Feb-2013 PDF
Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations Sep-2012 PDF
Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast Jul-2012 PDF
2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico Jun-2012 PDF
STEO Notice: Suspension of Regional Residential Heating Oil and Propane Price Forecast Jun-2011 PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices Apr-2010 PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty Oct-2009 PDF