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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: September 10, 2019  |  Next Release Date: October 8, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $59 per barrel (b) in August, down $5/b from July and $13/b lower than the average from August of last year. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $60/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $62/b in 2020. EIA forecasts that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices will average $5.50/b less than Brent prices in 2020.
  • EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 12.2 million b/d in 2019, up by 1.2 million from the 2018 level. Forecast crude oil production then rises by 1.0 million b/d in 2020 to an annual average of 13.2 million b/d. The slowing rate of crude oil production growth reflects relatively flat crude oil price levels and slowing growth in well-level productivity.
  • Because of the delayed release of EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) data for June 2019, historical monthly petroleum data in this STEO end one month earlier than standard, in May 2019. This delay does not materially affect the September STEO forecast. The June data will be incorporated into the October STEO.

U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth

U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth

U.S. crude oil production

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks

U.S. liquid fuels production growth

U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices

U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices

U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2017201820192020
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 50.7965.0656.3156.50
Brent Spot Average 54.1571.1963.3962.00
Imported Average 48.9861.3855.2551.06
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 50.6864.4856.1453.86
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.422.732.562.63
Diesel Fuel 2.653.183.053.16
Heating Oil 2.513.012.953.00
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 9.3510.9912.2413.23
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.784.354.965.40
Fuel Ethanol 1.041.051.031.04
Biodiesel 0.1040.1190.1280.145
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.339.329.309.31
Distillate Fuel Oil 3.934.134.094.18
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids 2.642.993.203.37
Jet Fuel 1.681.711.781.84
Total Consumption 19.9620.4520.5920.85
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.42.92.32.3
Heating Degree Days -1.311.80.2-2.6
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 3.52.4-0.5-0.6

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. crude oil production XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production XLSX PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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