Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Liquid Fuels

EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in May, up 80,000 b/d from the April level. EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.8 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.8 million b/d in 2019.

EIA forecasts that total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports will fall from an annual average of 3.7 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 2.5 million b/d in 2018 and to 1.6 million b/d in 2019, which would be the lowest level of net oil imports since 1959.

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $77 per barrel (b) in May, an increase of $5/b from the April level and the highest monthly average price since November 2014. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $71/b in 2018 and $68/b in 2019. The 2019 forecast price is $2/b higher than in the May STEO. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average almost $7/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for September 2018 delivery traded during the five-day period ending June 7, 2018, suggest a range of $52/b to $81/b encompasses the market expectation for September WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

For the 2018 April–September summer driving season, EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.87/gallon (gal), up from an average of $2.41/gal last summer. The higher forecast gasoline prices are primarily the result of higher forecast crude oil prices. Monthly average gasoline prices are expected to reach a summer peak in June of $2.92/gal and are forecast to decline gradually afterwards to $2.84/gal in September.

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
Crude Oil prices	(dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average	43.33	50.79	64.53	61.95
Brent Spot Average	43.74	54.15	71.06	67.74
Imported Average	38.70	49.00	60.92	58.45
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost	40.69	50.68	63.60	60.95
Retail prices including taxes	(dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline	2.15	2.42	2.77	2.74
Diesel Fuel	2.31	2.65	3.11	3.05
Heating Oil	2.10	2.51	2.93	2.99
Production	(million barrels per day)
Crude Oil	8.86	9.35	10.79	11.76
Natural Gas Plant Liquids	3.51	3.74	4.34	4.74
Fuel Ethanol	1.00	1.03	1.04	1.04
Biodiesel	0.102	0.104	0.137	0.149
Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline	9.32	9.32	9.34	9.38
Distillate Fuel Oil	3.88	3.94	4.07	4.13
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids	2.54	2.60	2.96	3.11
Jet Fuel	1.61	1.68	1.70	1.72
Total Consumption	19.69	19.88	20.41	20.67
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth	1.5	2.3	2.8	2.6
Heating Degree Days	-5.1	-1.2	11.8	-1.5
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production	1.6	3.0	3.3	2.3

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Related Tables
Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook	PDF
Table SF02. Average Summer Residential Electricity Usage, Prices and Expenditures	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances	PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Crude Oil and Liquid Fuels Production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Stocks	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Liquid Fuels Product Supplied	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Winter Heating Degree Days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Total Industrial Production Index	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Disposable Income	XLSX	PNG

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