U.S. Energy Information Administration logo
‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: August 7, 2018  |  Next Release Date: September 11, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures
       Notice for August 2018 release

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $74 per barrel (b) in July, largely unchanged from the average in June. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $72/b in 2018 and $71/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for November 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending August 2, 2018, suggest a range of $54/b to $84/b encompasses the market expectation for November WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.85 gallon (gal) in July, down 4 cents/gal from the average in June. EIA expects that 2018 monthly average gasoline prices peaked in May and forecasts prices will remain relatively flat in the coming months, averaging $2.83/gal in September. EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.76/gal in 2018 and in 2019.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.8 million barrels per day (b/d) in July, up 47,000 b/d from June. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.7 million b/d in 2019.

U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth

U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth

U.S. crude oil production

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks

U.S. liquid fuels production growth

U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2016201720182019
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 43.3350.7966.2164.34
Brent Spot Average 43.7454.1571.7470.58
Imported Average 38.7048.9862.2160.68
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 40.6950.6865.1263.33
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.152.422.762.76
Diesel Fuel 2.312.653.153.11
Heating Oil 2.102.512.973.05
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 8.849.3710.6811.70
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.513.744.334.73
Fuel Ethanol 1.001.031.041.04
Biodiesel 0.1020.1040.1300.144
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.329.329.319.38
Distillate Fuel Oil 3.883.944.114.15
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids 2.542.602.903.04
Jet Fuel 1.611.681.711.75
Total Consumption 19.6919.8820.3520.64
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 1.52.33.02.5
Heating Degree Days -5.1-1.211.0-1.5
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 1.63.03.22.8

Interactive Data Viewers

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Data browser ›
Real Prices Viewer ›

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. crude oil production XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production XLSX PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
Related Articles    
Today In Energy Daily
This Week in Petroleum Weekly
2018 Summer Fuels Outlook Apr-2018 PDF
2017-2018 Winter Fuels Outlook Oct-2017 PDF
2014 Outlook for Gulf of Mexico Hurricane-Related Production Outages Jun-2014 PDF
Energy-weighted industrial production indices Mar-2014 PDF
Key drivers for EIA's short-term U.S. crude oil production outlook Feb-2013 PDF
Change in STEO Regional and U.S. Degree Day Calculations Sep-2012 PDF
Brent Crude Oil Spot Price Forecast Jul-2012 PDF
2012 Outlook for Hurricane-Related Production Outages in the Gulf of Mexico Jun-2012 PDF
STEO Notice: Suspension of Regional Residential Heating Oil and Propane Price Forecast Jun-2011 PDF
Probabilities of Possible Future Prices Apr-2010 PDF
Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty Oct-2009 PDF