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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: June 12, 2018  |  Next Release Date: July 10, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.7 million barrels per day (b/d) in May, up 80,000 b/d from the April level. EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.8 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 11.8 million b/d in 2019.
  • EIA forecasts that total U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports will fall from an annual average of 3.7 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 2.5 million b/d in 2018 and to 1.6 million b/d in 2019, which would be the lowest level of net oil imports since 1959.
  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $77 per barrel (b) in May, an increase of $5/b from the April level and the highest monthly average price since November 2014. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $71/b in 2018 and $68/b in 2019. The 2019 forecast price is $2/b higher than in the May STEO. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average almost $7/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for September 2018 delivery traded during the five-day period ending June 7, 2018, suggest a range of $52/b to $81/b encompasses the market expectation for September WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • For the 2018 April–September summer driving season, EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.87/gallon (gal), up from an average of $2.41/gal last summer. The higher forecast gasoline prices are primarily the result of higher forecast crude oil prices. Monthly average gasoline prices are expected to reach a summer peak in June of $2.92/gal and are forecast to decline gradually afterwards to $2.84/gal in September.
U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2016201720182019
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 43.3350.7964.5361.95
Brent Spot Average 43.7454.1571.0667.74
Imported Average 38.7049.0060.9258.45
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 40.6950.6863.6060.95
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.152.422.772.74
Diesel Fuel 2.312.653.113.05
Heating Oil 2.102.512.932.99
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 8.869.3510.7911.76
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.513.744.344.74
Fuel Ethanol 1.001.031.041.04
Biodiesel 0.1020.1040.1370.149
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.329.329.349.38
Distillate Fuel Oil 3.883.944.074.13
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids 2.542.602.963.11
Jet Fuel 1.611.681.701.72
Total Consumption 19.6919.8820.4120.67
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 1.52.32.82.6
Heating Degree Days -5.1-1.211.8-1.5
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 1.63.03.32.3

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