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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Aug. 9, 2022  |  Forecast Completed: Aug. 4, 2022  |  Next Release Date: Sep. 13, 2022  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • We forecast the spot price of Brent crude oil will average $105 per barrel (b) in 2022 and $95/b in 2023.
  • U.S. crude oil production in our forecast averages 11.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2022 and 12.7 million b/d in 2023, which would set a record for most U.S. crude oil production in a year. The current record is 12.3 million b/d, set in 2019.
  • The U.S. retail price for regular grade gasoline averaged $4.56 per gallon (gal) in July, and the average retail diesel price was $5.49/gal. We expect retail gasoline prices to average $4.29/gal in the third quarter of 2022 (3Q22) and fall to an average of $3.78/gal in 4Q22. Retail diesel prices in our forecast average $5.02/gal in 3Q22 and $4.39/gal in 4Q22.
  • U.S. refineries average 93% utilization in 3Q22 in our forecast, as a result of high wholesale product margins. Elevated prices for gasoline and diesel reflect refining margins for those products that are at or near record highs amid low inventory levels.

U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth

U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth

U.S. crude oil production

U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices

U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices

U.S. net imports of crude oil and liquid fuels

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2020202120222023
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 39.1768.2198.7189.13
Brent Spot Average 41.6970.89104.7895.13
Imported Average 37.2265.9195.5886.47
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 39.7367.8397.4787.36
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.183.024.073.59
Diesel Fuel 2.563.294.814.14
Heating Oil 2.443.004.523.96
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 11.3211.2511.8612.70
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 5.175.405.996.32
Fuel Ethanol 0.910.981.021.00
Biodiesel 0.1180.1070.1000.088
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 8.058.808.838.93
Distillate Fuel Oil 3.793.943.943.96
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids 3.233.413.683.77
Jet Fuel 1.081.371.531.57
Total Consumption 18.1919.7820.3420.75
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth -3.45.71.51.8
Heating Degree Days -9.30.57.6-0.9
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production -6.55.03.81.1

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. crude oil production XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production XLSX PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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