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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: February 6, 2018  |  Next Release Date: March 6, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. NYMEX WTI contract values for May 2018 delivery traded during the five-day period ending February 1, 2018, suggest a range of $55/b to $77/b encompasses the market expectation for May 2018 WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in January, up 100,000 b/d from the December level. EIA estimates that total U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.3 million b/d in 2017 and will average 10.6 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average U.S. crude oil production level, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA forecasts that 2019 crude oil production will average 11.2 million b/d.
U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2016201720182019
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 43.3350.7958.2857.51
Brent Spot Average 43.7454.1562.3961.51
Imported Average 38.7048.5354.9553.97
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 40.6950.2757.2556.51
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.152.422.622.58
Diesel Fuel 2.312.652.912.87
Heating Oil 2.102.532.882.81
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 8.869.3310.5911.18
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.513.734.204.56
Fuel Ethanol 1.001.031.031.03
Biodiesel 0.1020.1050.1280.139
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.329.299.339.40
Distillate Fuel Oil 3.883.954.064.09
Jet Fuel 1.611.691.721.72
Total Consumption 19.6919.8820.3320.68
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 1.52.22.62.5
Heating Degree Days -5.1-1.511.0-0.6
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 1.73.12.92.4

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