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‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Nov. 8, 2022  |  Forecast Completed: Nov. 3, 2022  |  Next Release Date: Dec. 6, 2022  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • U.S. crude oil production in our forecast averages 11.7 million b/d in 2022 and 12.4 million b/d in 2023, which would surpass the record high set in 2019.
  • U.S. retail gasoline prices in our forecast average $3.80 per gallon (gal) in 4Q22 and $3.57/gal in 2023. Retail diesel prices average $4.86/gal in 4Q22 and $4.29/gal in 2023.
  • We expect U.S. gasoline consumption in 2022 to average 8.8 million b/d, down 40,000 b/d from 2021, and we expect it to stay near that level in 2023, with rising fuel efficiency offsetting price- and economy-driven increases in transportation demand.

U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth

U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth

U.S. crude oil production

U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices

U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices

U.S. net imports of crude oil and liquid fuels

Petroleum Products
  2020202120222023
WTI spot average
(dollars per barrel)
39.1768.2195.8889.33
U.S. crude oil production
(million barrels per day)
11.3211.2511.8312.31
U.S. liquid fuels consumption
(million barrels per day)
18.1919.8920.3820.48
U.S. crude oil & petroleum product net imports
(million barrels per day)
-0.63-0.06-1.17-0.81
Retail gasoline price
(dollars per gallon)
2.183.024.023.61
Retail diesel fuel price
(dollars per gallon)
2.563.295.094.65

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