Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Liquid Fuels

EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $72 in 2019 and that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $7/b lower than Brent prices next year. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for February 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending November 1, 2018, suggest a range of $53/b to $83/b encompasses the market expectation for February WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in October, down slightly from September levels because of hurricane-related outages in the Gulf of Mexico. EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.9 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 12.1 million b/d in 2019.

U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.86 per gallon (gal) in October, an increase of 2 cents/gal from the average in September, marking the sixth consecutive month that U.S. prices averaged between $2.85/gal and $2.90/gal. EIA forecasts the average U.S. regular gasoline retail price will fall to $2.57/gal in December 2018. EIA forecasts that regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.75/gal in 2018 and in 2019.

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
Crude Oil prices	(dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average	43.33	50.79	66.79	64.85
Brent Spot Average	43.74	54.15	73.12	71.92
Imported Average	38.70	48.98	62.88	61.30
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost	40.69	50.68	65.87	63.88
Retail prices including taxes	(dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline	2.15	2.42	2.75	2.75
Diesel Fuel	2.31	2.65	3.19	3.21
Heating Oil	2.10	2.51	3.03	3.08
Production	(million barrels per day)
Crude Oil	8.83	9.35	10.90	12.06
Natural Gas Plant Liquids	3.51	3.78	4.37	4.86
Fuel Ethanol	1.00	1.04	1.05	1.04
Biodiesel	0.102	0.104	0.126	0.144
Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline	9.32	9.33	9.34	9.35
Distillate Fuel Oil	3.88	3.93	4.12	4.16
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids	2.54	2.64	2.95	3.05
Jet Fuel	1.61	1.68	1.73	1.78
Total Consumption	19.69	19.96	20.47	20.69
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth	1.6	2.2	2.9	2.8
Heating Degree Days	-5.1	-1.3	10.8	-1.1
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production	1.6	3.0	3.1	2.0

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Related Tables
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances	PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. crude oil production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks	XLSX	PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption	XLSX	PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids	XLSX	PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions	XLSX	PNG

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