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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: June 9, 2020  |  Next Release Date: July 7, 2020  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • EIA forecasts U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average 15.7 million b/d in the second quarter of 2020, down 4.6 million b/d (23%) from the same period in 2019. The decline reflects travel restrictions and reduced economic activity related to COVID-19 mitigation efforts. EIA expects the largest declines in U.S. oil consumption have already occurred and demand will generally rise during the next 18 months. EIA forecasts U.S. liquid fuels consumption will average 18.4 million b/d in the third quarter of 2020 (down 2.3 million b/d year-over-year) before rising to an average of 19.5 million b/d in 2021. Although that level would be 1.4 million b/d more than EIA’s forecast 2020 consumption, it would be 1.0 million b/d less than the 2019 average.
  • Declines in U.S. liquid fuels consumption vary across products. EIA expects jet fuel consumption to fall by 64% year-over-year in the second quarter of 2020, while gasoline consumption falls by 26% and distillate consumption falls by 17%. EIA forecasts the consumption of all three fuels to rise in the third quarter and into 2021 but to remain lower than 2019 levels.
  • EIA estimates U.S. crude oil production fell from a record 12.9 million b/d in November 2019 to 11.4 million b/d in May 2020 as Baker Hughes reported the fewest active drilling wells in the United States in their records which go back to 1987. EIA expects U.S. crude oil production will continue to decline, to 10.6 million b/d in March 2021, then increase slightly through the end of 2021. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 11.6 million b/d in 2020, down 0.7 million b/d from 2019. In 2021, EIA expects U.S. crude oil production will average 10.8 million b/d. This 2020 production decline would mark the first annual decline since 2016. Typically, price changes affect production after about a six-month lag. However, current market conditions have shortened this lag as many producers have already curtailed production and reduced capital spending and drilling in response to lower prices.

U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth

U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth

U.S. crude oil production

U.S. liquid fuels production growth

U.S. net imports of crude oil and liquid fuels

U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices

U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2018201920202021
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 65.0657.0235.1443.88
Brent Spot Average 71.1964.3738.0247.88
Imported Average 61.3457.9432.5541.54
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 64.4859.3335.7142.91
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.732.602.072.18
Diesel Fuel 3.183.062.452.49
Heating Oil 3.013.002.432.50
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 10.9912.2311.5610.84
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 4.374.814.804.77
Fuel Ethanol 1.051.030.850.96
Biodiesel 0.1210.1120.1100.133
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.339.278.098.70
Distillate Fuel Oil 4.154.083.663.87
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids 3.013.132.953.14
Jet Fuel 1.711.741.201.54
Total Consumption 20.5020.4618.0619.46
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.92.3-7.45.1
Heating Degree Days 11.80.6-7.13.8
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 2.5-0.2-10.52.1

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U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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