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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: April 9, 2019  |  Next Release Date: May 7, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • For the summer driving season that runs from April through September, 2019, EIA forecasts that U.S. regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.76 per gallon (gal), down from an average of $2.85/gal last summer. EIA’s forecast is discussed in its Summer Fuels Outlook. The lower forecast gasoline prices primarily reflect EIA’s expectation of lower crude oil prices in 2019. For all of 2019, EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.60/gal and gasoline retail prices for all grades to average $2.71/gal, which would result in the average U.S. household spending about $100 (4%) less on motor fuel in 2019 compared with 2018.
  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $66 per barrel (b) in March, up $2/b from February 2019. Brent prices for the first quarter of 2019 averaged $63/b, which is $4/b lower than the same period in 2018. Despite lower crude oil prices than last year, Brent prices in March were $9/b higher than in December 2018, marking the largest December-to-March price increase since December 2011 to March 2012. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $65/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020, compared with an average of $71/b in 2018. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $8/b lower than Brent prices in the first half of 2019 before the discount gradually falls to $4/b in late-2019 and through 2020.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.1 million barrels per day (b/d) in March, up 0.3 million b/d from the February average. EIA forecasts that U.S. crude oil production will average 12.4 million b/d in 2019 and 13.1 million b/d in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth

U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth

U.S. crude oil production

U.S. liquid fuels production growth

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks

U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2017201820192020
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 50.7965.0658.8058.00
Brent Spot Average 54.1571.1965.1562.00
Imported Average 48.9861.3557.1652.56
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 50.6864.4557.6855.36
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.422.732.602.57
Diesel Fuel 2.653.183.083.16
Heating Oil 2.513.012.963.02
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 9.3510.9612.3913.10
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.784.354.935.29
Fuel Ethanol 1.041.051.041.05
Biodiesel 0.1040.1190.1330.145
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.339.329.349.38
Distillate Fuel Oil 3.934.134.164.20
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids 2.642.993.213.34
Jet Fuel 1.681.711.781.81
Total Consumption 19.9620.4520.8121.06
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.22.92.42.2
Heating Degree Days -1.311.8-0.6-2.2
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 3.02.80.80.8

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. crude oil production XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production XLSX PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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