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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: February 12, 2019  |  Next Release Date: March 12, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $59 per barrel (b) in January, up $2/b from December 2018 but $10/b lower than the average in January of last year. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $61/b in 2019 and $62/b in 2020, compared with an average of $71/b in 2018. EIA expects that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average $8/b lower than Brent prices in the first quarter of 2019 before the discount gradually falls to $4/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and through 2020.

  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 12.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in January, up 90,000 b/d from December. EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 12.4 million b/d in 2019 and 13.2 million b/d in 2020, with most of the growth coming from the Permian region of Texas and New Mexico.

  • U.S. crude oil and petroleum product net imports are estimated to have fallen from an average of 3.8 million b/d in 2017 to an average of 2.4 million b/d in 2018. EIA forecasts that net imports will continue to fall to an average of 0.9 million b/d in 2019 and to an average net export level of 0.3 million b/d in 2020. In the fourth quarter of 2020, EIA forecasts the United States will be a net exporter of crude oil and petroleum products by about 1.1 million b/d.

U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth

U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth

U.S. crude oil production

U.S. liquid fuels production growth

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks

U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2017201820192020
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 50.7965.0654.7958.00
Brent Spot Average 54.1571.1961.0362.00
Imported Average 48.9861.3250.6251.50
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 50.6864.1853.1155.35
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.422.732.472.56
Diesel Fuel 2.653.182.953.15
Heating Oil 2.513.022.862.99
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 9.3510.9612.4113.20
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.784.364.945.29
Fuel Ethanol 1.041.051.041.05
Biodiesel 0.1040.1220.1440.158
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.339.319.359.36
Distillate Fuel Oil 3.934.144.174.21
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids 2.642.993.163.32
Jet Fuel 1.681.701.791.81
Total Consumption 19.9620.4720.8221.04
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.22.92.62.1
Heating Degree Days -1.311.0-1.50.1
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 3.02.71.21.4

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. crude oil production XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production XLSX PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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