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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: March 11, 2020  |  Next Release Date: April 7, 2020  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 13.0 million b/d in 2020, up 0.8 million b/d from 2019, but then fall to 12.7 million b/d in 2021. The forecast decline in 2021 is in response to lower oil prices and would mark the first annual U.S. crude oil production decline since 2016. EIA models show oil prices affect production after about a six-month lag. Despite forecast annual average growth of 0.8 million b/d in 2020, EIA expects monthly U.S. crude oil production to begin declining around May, with production falling from 13.2 million b/d in May to 12.8 million b/d in December 2020.
  • Based on the lower crude oil price forecast, EIA expects U.S. retail prices for regular grade gasoline to average $2.14 per gallon (gal) in 2020, down from $2.60/gal in 2019. EIA expects retail gasoline prices to fall to a monthly average of $1.97/gal in April before rising to an average of $2.13/gal from June through August.

U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth

U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth

U.S. crude oil production

U.S. liquid fuels production growth

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks

U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices

U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2018201920202021
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 65.0657.0238.1950.36
Brent Spot Average 71.1964.3743.3055.36
Imported Average 61.3457.9234.3647.90
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 64.4859.2337.3549.33
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.732.602.142.33
Diesel Fuel 3.183.062.542.73
Heating Oil 3.013.002.632.71
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 10.9912.2312.9912.66
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 4.374.815.345.49
Fuel Ethanol 1.051.031.041.03
Biodiesel 0.1210.1120.1280.149
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.339.279.289.20
Distillate Fuel Oil 4.154.084.024.11
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids 3.013.133.273.43
Jet Fuel 1.711.741.771.80
Total Consumption 20.5020.4620.5220.72
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.92.32.11.8
Heating Degree Days 11.80.7-6.54.1
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 2.5-0.3-0.3-0.6

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. crude oil production XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production XLSX PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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