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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Oct. 13, 2021  |  Forecast Completed: Oct. 7, 2021  |  Next Release Date: Nov. 9, 2021  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $3.18 per gallon (gal) in September, up 2 cents/gal from August and almost $1/gal higher than in September 2020. Recent gasoline price increases reflect increasing crude oil prices outweighing falling gasoline wholesale margins. We forecast that retail gasoline prices will average $3.21/gal in October before falling to $3.05/gal in December.
  • Total U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.3 million b/d in July–the most recent monthly historical data point. We estimate that domestic production fell to 10.6 million b/d in September because of disruptions from Hurricane Ida. We forecast production will be 11.0 million b/d in October and rise to 11.3 million b/d in December. We forecast 2021 production will average 11.0 million b/d, increasing to 11.7 million b/d in 2022 as tight oil production rises in the United States. Growth will come as a result of operators increasing rig counts, which we expect will offset production decline rates.

U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth

U.S. net imports of crude oil and liquid fuels

U.S. crude oil production

U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth

U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices

U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2019202020212022
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 56.9939.1768.4868.24
Brent Spot Average 64.3441.6971.3871.91
Imported Average 57.9537.2267.1265.79
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 59.3639.7367.9266.78
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.602.182.972.90
Diesel Fuel 3.062.563.243.23
Heating Oil 3.002.443.003.12
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 12.2911.2811.0211.73
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 4.825.175.295.88
Fuel Ethanol 1.030.910.961.00
Biodiesel 0.1120.1180.1130.126
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.318.058.788.96
Distillate Fuel Oil 4.103.793.994.11
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids 3.143.233.353.58
Jet Fuel 1.741.081.381.61
Total Consumption 20.5418.1919.6720.43
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.3-3.45.74.5
Heating Degree Days 0.6-9.36.30.1
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production -2.9-5.55.23.2

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. crude oil production XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production XLSX PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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