Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Liquid Fuels

U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $3.18 per gallon (gal) in September, up 2 cents/gal from August and almost $1/gal higher than in September 2020. Recent gasoline price increases reflect increasing crude oil prices outweighing falling gasoline wholesale margins. We forecast that retail gasoline prices will average $3.21/gal in October before falling to $3.05/gal in December.

Total U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.3 million b/d in July–the most recent monthly historical data point. We estimate that domestic production fell to 10.6 million b/d in September because of disruptions from Hurricane Ida. We forecast production will be 11.0 million b/d in October and rise to 11.3 million b/d in December. We forecast 2021 production will average 11.0 million b/d, increasing to 11.7 million b/d in 2022 as tight oil production rises in the United States. Growth will come as a result of operators increasing rig counts, which we expect will offset production decline rates.

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2019	2020	2021projected	2022projected
Crude Oil prices	(dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average	56.99	39.17	68.48	68.24
Brent Spot Average	64.34	41.69	71.38	71.91
Imported Average	57.95	37.22	67.12	65.79
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost	59.36	39.73	67.92	66.78
Retail prices including taxes	(dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline	2.60	2.18	2.97	2.90
Diesel Fuel	3.06	2.56	3.24	3.23
Heating Oil	3.00	2.44	3.00	3.12
Production	(million barrels per day)
Crude Oil	12.29	11.28	11.02	11.73
Natural Gas Plant Liquids	4.82	5.17	5.29	5.88
Fuel Ethanol	1.03	0.91	0.96	1.00
Biodiesel	0.112	0.118	0.113	0.126
Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline	9.31	8.05	8.78	8.96
Distillate Fuel Oil	4.10	3.79	3.99	4.11
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids	3.14	3.23	3.35	3.58
Jet Fuel	1.74	1.08	1.38	1.61
Total Consumption	20.54	18.19	19.67	20.43
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth	2.3	-3.4	5.7	4.5
Heating Degree Days	0.6	-9.3	6.3	0.1
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production	-2.9	-5.5	5.2	3.2

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Related Tables
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances	PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. crude oil production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks	XLSX	PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption	XLSX	PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids	XLSX	PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions	XLSX	PNG

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