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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: November 6, 2018  |  Next Release Date: December 11, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $72 in 2019 and that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $7/b lower than Brent prices next year. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for February 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending November 1, 2018, suggest a range of $53/b to $83/b encompasses the market expectation for February WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 11.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in October, down slightly from September levels because of hurricane-related outages in the Gulf of Mexico. EIA expects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.9 million b/d in 2018, up from 9.4 million b/d in 2017, and will average 12.1 million b/d in 2019.
  • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.86 per gallon (gal) in October, an increase of 2 cents/gal from the average in September, marking the sixth consecutive month that U.S. prices averaged between $2.85/gal and $2.90/gal. EIA forecasts the average U.S. regular gasoline retail price will fall to $2.57/gal in December 2018. EIA forecasts that regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.75/gal in 2018 and in 2019.

U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth

U.S. Hydrocarbon gas liquids product supplied growth

U.S. crude oil production

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks

U.S. liquid fuels production growth

U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2016201720182019
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 43.3350.7966.7964.85
Brent Spot Average 43.7454.1573.1271.92
Imported Average 38.7048.9862.8861.30
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 40.6950.6865.8763.88
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.152.422.752.75
Diesel Fuel 2.312.653.193.21
Heating Oil 2.102.513.033.08
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 8.839.3510.9012.06
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.513.784.374.86
Fuel Ethanol 1.001.041.051.04
Biodiesel 0.1020.1040.1260.144
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.329.339.349.35
Distillate Fuel Oil 3.883.934.124.16
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids 2.542.642.953.05
Jet Fuel 1.611.681.731.78
Total Consumption 19.6919.9620.4720.69
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 1.62.22.92.8
Heating Degree Days -5.1-1.310.8-1.1
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 1.63.03.12.0

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. crude oil production XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth XLSX PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production XLSX PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids XLSX PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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