Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Liquid Fuels

EIA forecasts global oil inventories will decline by 0.3 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2019 and then increase by 0.3 million b/d in 2020. Although global liquid fuels demand outpaces supply in 2019 in EIA’s forecast, global liquid fuels supply is forecast to rise by 2.0 million b/d in 2020, with 1.4 million of that growth coming from the United States. Global oil demand rises by 1.4 million b/d in 2020 in the forecast, up from expected growth of 1.2 million b/d in 2019.

Annual U.S. crude oil production reached a record 11.0 million b/d in 2018. EIA forecasts that U.S. production will increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2019 and by 0.9 million b/d in 2020, with 2020 production averaging 13.3 million b/d. Despite EIA’s expectation for slowing growth, the 2019 forecast would be the second-largest annual growth on record (following 1.6 million b/d in 2018), and the 2020 forecast would be the fifth-largest growth on record.

For the 2019 summer driving season, which runs from April through September, EIA forecasts that U.S. regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.76 per gallon (gal), down from an average of $2.85/gal last summer. The lower forecast gasoline prices primarily reflect EIA’s expectation of lower crude oil prices this summer.

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2017	2018	2019projected	2020projected
Crude Oil prices	(dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average	50.79	65.06	59.29	63.00
Brent Spot Average	54.15	71.19	66.69	67.00
Imported Average	48.98	61.35	57.44	57.56
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost	50.68	64.45	58.12	60.36
Retail prices including taxes	(dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline	2.42	2.73	2.64	2.75
Diesel Fuel	2.65	3.18	3.11	3.28
Heating Oil	2.51	3.01	3.02	3.13
Production	(million barrels per day)
Crude Oil	9.35	10.96	12.32	13.26
Natural Gas Plant Liquids	3.78	4.35	4.96	5.31
Fuel Ethanol	1.04	1.05	1.04	1.05
Biodiesel	0.104	0.119	0.131	0.145
Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline	9.33	9.32	9.32	9.35
Distillate Fuel Oil	3.93	4.13	4.13	4.20
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids	2.64	2.99	3.22	3.36
Jet Fuel	1.68	1.71	1.77	1.81
Total Consumption	19.96	20.45	20.64	20.89
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth	2.2	2.9	2.7	2.2
Heating Degree Days	-1.3	11.7	-0.1	-2.6
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production	3.5	2.4	-0.2	0.6

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Related Tables
Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook	PDF
Table SF02. Average Summer Residential Electricity Usage, Prices and Expenditures	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances	PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. crude oil production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks	XLSX	PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption	XLSX	PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids	XLSX	PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions	XLSX	PNG

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