Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Liquid Fuels

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 13.0 million b/d in 2020, up 0.8 million b/d from 2019, but then fall to 12.7 million b/d in 2021. The forecast decline in 2021 is in response to lower oil prices and would mark the first annual U.S. crude oil production decline since 2016. EIA models show oil prices affect production after about a six-month lag. Despite forecast annual average growth of 0.8 million b/d in 2020, EIA expects monthly U.S. crude oil production to begin declining around May, with production falling from 13.2 million b/d in May to 12.8 million b/d in December 2020.

Based on the lower crude oil price forecast, EIA expects U.S. retail prices for regular grade gasoline to average $2.14 per gallon (gal) in 2020, down from $2.60/gal in 2019. EIA expects retail gasoline prices to fall to a monthly average of $1.97/gal in April before rising to an average of $2.13/gal from June through August.

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2018	2019	2020projected	2021projected
Crude Oil prices	(dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average	65.06	57.02	38.19	50.36
Brent Spot Average	71.19	64.37	43.30	55.36
Imported Average	61.34	57.92	34.36	47.90
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost	64.48	59.23	37.35	49.33
Retail prices including taxes	(dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline	2.73	2.60	2.14	2.33
Diesel Fuel	3.18	3.06	2.54	2.73
Heating Oil	3.01	3.00	2.63	2.71
Production	(million barrels per day)
Crude Oil	10.99	12.23	12.99	12.66
Natural Gas Plant Liquids	4.37	4.81	5.34	5.49
Fuel Ethanol	1.05	1.03	1.04	1.03
Biodiesel	0.121	0.112	0.128	0.149
Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline	9.33	9.27	9.28	9.20
Distillate Fuel Oil	4.15	4.08	4.02	4.11
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids	3.01	3.13	3.27	3.43
Jet Fuel	1.71	1.74	1.77	1.80
Total Consumption	20.50	20.46	20.52	20.72
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth	2.9	2.3	2.1	1.8
Heating Degree Days	11.8	0.7	-6.5	4.1
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production	2.5	-0.3	-0.3	-0.6

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Related Tables
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances	PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. crude oil production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks	XLSX	PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption	XLSX	PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids	XLSX	PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions	XLSX	PNG

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