Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Liquid Fuels

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $59 per barrel (b) in August, down $5/b from July and $13/b lower than the average from August of last year. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $60/b in the fourth quarter of 2019 and $62/b in 2020. EIA forecasts that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices will average $5.50/b less than Brent prices in 2020.

EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production will average 12.2 million b/d in 2019, up by 1.2 million from the 2018 level. Forecast crude oil production then rises by 1.0 million b/d in 2020 to an annual average of 13.2 million b/d. The slowing rate of crude oil production growth reflects relatively flat crude oil price levels and slowing growth in well-level productivity.

Because of the delayed release of EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly (PSM) data for June 2019, historical monthly petroleum data in this STEO end one month earlier than standard, in May 2019. This delay does not materially affect the September STEO forecast. The June data will be incorporated into the October STEO.

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
	2017	2018	2019projected	2020projected
Crude Oil prices	(dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average	50.79	65.06	56.31	56.50
Brent Spot Average	54.15	71.19	63.39	62.00
Imported Average	48.98	61.38	55.25	51.06
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost	50.68	64.48	56.14	53.86
Retail prices including taxes	(dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline	2.42	2.73	2.56	2.63
Diesel Fuel	2.65	3.18	3.05	3.16
Heating Oil	2.51	3.01	2.95	3.00
Production	(million barrels per day)
Crude Oil	9.35	10.99	12.24	13.23
Natural Gas Plant Liquids	3.78	4.35	4.96	5.40
Fuel Ethanol	1.04	1.05	1.03	1.04
Biodiesel	0.104	0.119	0.128	0.145
Consumption	(million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline	9.33	9.32	9.30	9.31
Distillate Fuel Oil	3.93	4.13	4.09	4.18
Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids	2.64	2.99	3.20	3.37
Jet Fuel	1.68	1.71	1.78	1.84
Total Consumption	19.96	20.45	20.59	20.85
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth	2.4	2.9	2.3	2.3
Heating Degree Days	-1.3	11.8	0.2	-2.6
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production	3.5	2.4	-0.5	-0.6

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Related Tables
Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook	PDF
Table SF02. Average Summer Residential Electricity Usage, Prices and Expenditures	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 4b. U.S. Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids (HGL) and Petroleum Refinery Balances	PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. crude oil production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. commercial crude oil stocks	XLSX	PNG
U.S. liquid fuels production growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. liquid fuels product supplied growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. net trade of crude oil and liquid fuels	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas plant liquids production	XLSX	PNG
U.S. hydrocarbon gas liquids consumption	XLSX	PNG
U.S. net trade of hydrocarbon gas liquids	XLSX	PNG
U.S. commercial propane inventories	XLSX	PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions	XLSX	PNG

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