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Short-Term Energy and SUmmer Fuels Outlook

Release Date: April 11, 2017  |  Next Release Date: May 9, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • For the 2017 April-through-September summer driving season, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.46/gallon (gal), compared with $2.23/gal last summer (see Summer Fuels Outlook). The higher forecast gasoline price is primarily the result of higher forecast crude oil prices. For all of 2017, the forecast average price for regular gasoline is $2.39/gal, which, if realized, would result in the average U.S. household spending about $200 more on motor fuel in 2017 compared with 2016.
  • U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016. U.S crude oil production is forecast to average 9.2 million b/d in 2017 and 9.9 million b/d in 2018.
  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $52 per barrel (b) in March, $3/b lower than the February average. EIA forecasts Brent prices to average $54/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018.
  • NYMEX contract values for July 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending April 6 suggest that a range of $41/b to $66/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in July 2017 at the 95% confidence level.

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 48.67 43.33 52.24 55.10
Brent Spot Average 52.32 43.74 54.23 57.10
Imported Average 46.34 38.69 48.55 51.59
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 48.40 40.69 51.03 54.12
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.43 2.15 2.39 2.44
Diesel Fuel 2.71 2.31 2.69 2.85
Heating Oil 2.65 2.10 2.59 2.75
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 9.42 8.87 9.22 9.90
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.34 3.48 3.75 4.17
Fuel Ethanol 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.02
Biodiesel 0.082 0.101 0.103 0.111
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.18 9.33 9.30 9.34
Distillate Fuel Oil 4.00 3.88 3.95 4.07
Jet Fuel 1.55 1.61 1.62 1.62
Total Consumption 19.53 19.63 19.88 20.22
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.6 1.6 2.3 2.5
Heating Degree Days -10.2 -5.2 1.4 7.8
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 1.0 0.8 2.7 2.7

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