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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: June 6, 2017  |  Next Release Date: July 11, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $50 per barrel (b) in May, $2/b lower than the April average. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $53/b in 2017 and $56/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent prices in both 2017 and 2018. NYMEX contract values for September 2017 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending June 1 suggest that a range of $39/b to $64/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in September 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
  • U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million b/d in 2016. U.S. crude oil production is forecast to average 9.3 million b/d in 2017 and 10.0 million b/d in 2018. The 2018 forecast exceeds the previous record level of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970.
  • For the 2017 summer driving season (April–September), U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.46/gallon (gal), compared with $2.23/gal last summer. The higher forecast gasoline price is primarily the result of a higher forecast crude oil price. The forecast annual average price for regular gasoline in 2017 is $2.38/gal.

U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 48.67 43.33 50.78 53.61
Brent Spot Average 52.32 43.74 52.69 55.61
Imported Average 46.34 38.69 47.26 50.09
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 48.40 40.69 49.59 52.63
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.43 2.15 2.38 2.43
Diesel Fuel 2.71 2.31 2.66 2.81
Heating Oil 2.65 2.10 2.53 2.69
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 9.42 8.87 9.33 10.01
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.34 3.48 3.80 4.19
Fuel Ethanol 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.02
Biodiesel 0.082 0.101 0.104 0.109
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.18 9.33 9.34 9.37
Distillate Fuel Oil 4.00 3.88 3.99 4.05
Jet Fuel 1.55 1.61 1.63 1.62
Total Consumption 19.53 19.63 19.95 20.26
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.6 1.6 2.2 2.6
Heating Degree Days -10.2 -5.1 0.4 8.5
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production -0.2 1.7 3.0 2.5

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