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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: March 7, 2017  |  Next Release Date: April 11, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016. U.S crude oil production is forecast to average 9.2 million b/d in 2017 and 9.7 million b/d in 2018.
  • Benchmark North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $55 per barrel (b) in February, largely unchanged from the average in January.
  • EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices to average $55/b in 2017 and $57/b in 2018. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are expected to average about $1/b less than Brent prices in the forecast. NYMEX contract values for May 2017 delivery traded during the five-day period ending March 2 suggest that a range of $46/b to $63/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in May 2017 at the 95% confidence level.
  • U.S. monthly average regular gasoline retail prices are expected to increase from $2.30/gallon (gal) in February 2017 to $2.51/gal in July before falling to $2.24/gal by December. U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.40/gal in 2017 and $2.44/gal in 2018.
U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 48.67 43.33 53.49 56.18
Brent Spot Average 52.32 43.74 54.62 57.18
Imported Average 46.34 38.78 49.97 52.67
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 48.40 40.72 52.50 55.20
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.43 2.15 2.40 2.44
Diesel Fuel 2.71 2.31 2.70 2.83
Heating Oil 2.65 2.10 2.59 2.74
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 9.42 8.88 9.21 9.73
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.34 3.48 3.75 4.20
Fuel Ethanol 0.97 1.00 1.03 1.03
Biodiesel 0.082 0.101 0.104 0.111
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.18 9.33 9.29 9.39
Distillate Fuel Oil 4.00 3.88 3.93 4.02
Jet Fuel 1.55 1.61 1.60 1.61
Total Consumption 19.53 19.63 19.84 20.22
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.6 1.6 2.3 2.6
Heating Degree Days -10.2 -5.1 -0.9 7.2
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production 1.0 0.8 1.6 2.7

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