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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: August 8, 2017  |  Next Release Date: Septemeber 12, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Liquid Fuels

  • U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.30 per gallon (gal) in July, down 5 cents/gal from the average in June but 6 cents/gal higher than in July 2016. During the April-through-September summer driving season of 2017, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.37/gal, 14 cents/gal higher than last summer. Annual average U.S. regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to be $2.33/gal in both 2017 and 2018.
  • U.S. crude oil production averaged an estimated 8.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 and is forecast to average 9.3 million b/d in 2017. EIA forecasts crude oil production to average 9.9 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average production in U.S. history, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970.
U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Crude Oil prices (dollars per barrel)
WTI Spot Average 48.67 43.33 48.88 49.58
Brent Spot Average 52.32 43.74 50.71 51.58
Imported Average 46.34 38.69 45.51 46.03
Refiner Average Acquisition Cost 48.40 40.69 47.72 48.59
Retail prices including taxes (dollars per gallon)
Regular Gasoline 2.43 2.15 2.33 2.33
Diesel Fuel 2.71 2.31 2.59 2.72
Heating Oil 2.65 2.10 2.48 2.59
Production (million barrels per day)
Crude Oil 9.41 8.85 9.35 9.91
Natural Gas Plant Liquids 3.34 3.48 3.79 4.25
Fuel Ethanol 0.97 1.00 1.02 1.01
Biodiesel 0.082 0.101 0.105 0.109
Consumption (million barrels per day)
Motor Gasoline 9.18 9.33 9.33 9.36
Distillate Fuel Oil 4.00 3.88 3.98 4.06
Jet Fuel 1.55 1.61 1.65 1.63
Total Consumption 19.53 19.63 19.97 20.30
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
U.S. Real GDP Growth 2.6 1.6 2.3 2.6
Heating Degree Days -10.2 -5.1 0.1 8.2
Distillate-weighted Industrial Production -0.2 1.7 3.4 2.4

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