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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: January 9, 2018  |  Next Release Date: February 6, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1% in the second quarter of 2017 and 3.2% in the third quarter of 2017, according to recent estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter reflected an acceleration in private inventory investment, a downturn in imports, and smaller decreases in state and local government spending and in residential fixed investment that were partly offset by decelerations in personal consumption expenditures, in nonresidential fixed investment, and in exports.

Production, Income, and Employment

EIA used the December 2017 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in the STEO.

Real GDP is forecast to increase by 2.4% in both 2018 and 2019 compared with the 2.3% increase in 2017. Real disposable income is forecast to grow by 2.4% in 2018 and by 3.3% in 2019 compared with a 1.3% increase in 2017. Total industrial production is forecast to increase by 3.1% in 2018 and by 2.7% in 2018, compared with a 1.9% increase in 2017. Forecast growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.4% in 2018 and 1.2% in 2019, compared with growth of 1.5% in 2017.

Expenditures

Private real fixed investment is forecast to grow by 3.4% in 2018 and by 4.4% in 2019, compared with 3.9% growth in 2017. Real consumption expenditures are forecast to grow by 2.4% in 2018 and by 2.2% in 2019, compared with a 2.7% increase in 2017.

Exports are forecast to grow by 4.3% in 2018 and by 4.2% in 2019, compared with 3.1% growth in 2017. Imports are forecast to grow by 3.6% in 2018 and by 3.3% in 2019, compared with 3.4% growth in 2017. Total government expenditures are forecast to increase by 0.4% in 2018 and by 0.5% in 2019, compared with a 0.1% decline in 2017.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2016201720182019
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 16,71617,09617,50717,923
percent change from prior year 1.52.32.42.4
Real Disposable Personal Income 12,60912,76713,08013,508
percent change from prior year 1.41.32.43.3
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 11,57211,88312,16512,429
Real Fixed Investment 2,8032,9123,0123,145
Business Inventory Change 35.0822.5855.0764.72
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 144.3146.4148.5150.3
Commercial Employment 100.2101.9103.3104.6
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 102.8104.6107.5110.2
percent change from prior year 0.21.72.82.5
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.402.452.502.55
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 1.851.931.982.01
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 1.441.751.881.90
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 111.4113.4115.9118.5

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