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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Nov. 9, 2021  |  Forecast Completed: Nov. 4, 2021  |  Next Release Date: Dec. 7, 2021  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

  • EIA expects rising global economic activity will contribute to rising steel production and power demand, which will lead to increased U.S. exports of both metallurgical and steam coal. EIA forecasts coal exports will total 85 MMst in 2021, up by 24% from 2020, which was the lowest level since 2016. EIA forecasts exports will rise by 6 MMst in 2022 to 91 MMst.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decreased by 11% in 2020. This decline in emissions is the result of less energy consumption related to economic contraction in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, EIA forecasts that energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by about 4% from the 2020 level as economic activity increases leading to rising energy use. Energy-related CO2 emissions are also expected to rise by 3% in 2022 as economic growth continues. 
U.S. Economic Assumptions
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 19,03318,38519,37920,186
percent change from prior year 2.3-
Real Disposable Personal Income 14,75615,67715,93515,401
percent change from prior year
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 13,12612,63013,61414,060
Real Fixed Investment 3,4213,3293,5803,683
Business Inventory Change 73.63-59.57-103.94105.43
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 150.9142.3146.0151.2
Commercial Employment 104.998.0101.4105.4
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2012=100) 99.593.299.3104.6
percent change from prior year -1.9-
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.562.592.702.78
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 2.001.942.242.28
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 1.941.432.182.17
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2012=100) 112.3113.7118.2121.8

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