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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: November 7, 2017  |  Next Release Date: December 12, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions

Recent Economic Indicators

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 1.4% in the first quarter of 2017, according to the recent estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a deceleration in personal consumption expenditures that were partly offset by an upturn in exports and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.

Production, Income, and Employment

EIA used the June 2017 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.

Real GDP is projected to increase 2.3% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018 compared with the 1.6% increase in 2016. Real disposable income is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2017 and by 3.6% in 2018 compared with a 2.6% increase in 2016. Total industrial production is projected to increase by 2.2% in 2017 and by 2.8% in 2018, compared with a 1.2% decline in 2016. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.4% in 2017 and 1.1% in 2018, compared with growth of 1.8% in 2016.

Expenditures

Private real fixed investment is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2017 and by 4.3% in 2018, compared with 0.7% growth in 2016. Real consumption expenditures are projected to grow by 2.5% in 2017 and by 3.0% in 2018, compared with a 2.7% increase in 2016.

Exports are projected to grow by 2.4% in 2017 and by 2.1% in 2018, compared with 0.4% growth in 2016. Imports are projected to grow by 3.8% in 2017 and by 5.5% in 2018, compared with 1.1% growth in 2016. Total government expenditures are projected to increase by 0.1% in 2017 and by 0.9% in 2018, compared with 0.8% growth in 2016.

U.S. Economic Assumptions
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures (billion chained 2009 dollars)
Real Gross Domestic Product 16472 16716 17077 17468
percent change from prior year 2.9 1.5 2.2 2.3
Real Disposable Personal Income 12436 12609 12780 13080
percent change from prior year 4.2 1.4 1.4 2.3
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 11264 11572 11878 12155
Real Fixed Investment 2783 2803 2899 2989
Business Inventory Change 111.95 35.10 22.54 51.06
Employment (millions)
Non-Farm Employment 141.8 144.3 146.4 148.3
Commercial Employment 98.0 100.2 101.9 103.2
Production and Price Indexes
Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100) 102.6 102.8 104.3 106.4
percent change from prior year 0.2 0.2 1.5 2.0
Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00) 2.37 2.40 2.45 2.49
Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00) 1.90 1.85 1.94 1.97
Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00) 1.76 1.44 1.72 1.76
GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100) 110.0 111.4 113.3 115.6

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