U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
Short-Term Energy Outlook
U.S. Economic Assumptions
Recent Economic Indicators
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.1% in the fourth quarter of 2016 and 1.4% in the first quarter of 2017, according to the recent estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected a downturn in private inventory investment and a deceleration in personal consumption expenditures that were partly offset by an upturn in exports and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.
Production, Income, and Employment
EIA used the June 2017 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic projections in the STEO.
Real GDP is projected to increase 2.3% in 2017 and 2.6% in 2018 compared with the 1.6% increase in 2016. Real disposable income is projected to grow by 2.1% in 2017 and by 3.6% in 2018 compared with a 2.6% increase in 2016. Total industrial production is projected to increase by 2.2% in 2017 and by 2.8% in 2018, compared with a 1.2% decline in 2016. Projected growth in nonfarm employment averages 1.4% in 2017 and 1.1% in 2018, compared with growth of 1.8% in 2016.
Private real fixed investment is projected to grow by 5.2% in 2017 and by 4.3% in 2018, compared with 0.7% growth in 2016. Real consumption expenditures are projected to grow by 2.5% in 2017 and by 3.0% in 2018, compared with a 2.7% increase in 2016.
Exports are projected to grow by 2.4% in 2017 and by 2.1% in 2018, compared with 0.4% growth in 2016. Imports are projected to grow by 3.8% in 2017 and by 5.5% in 2018, compared with 1.1% growth in 2016. Total government expenditures are projected to increase by 0.1% in 2017 and by 0.9% in 2018, compared with 0.8% growth in 2016.
|U.S. Economic Assumptions|
|2015||2016||2017 projected||2018 projected|
|Economic Output, Income, and Expenditures||(billion chained 2009 dollars)|
|Real Gross Domestic Product||16472||16716||17072||17520|
|percent change from prior year||2.9||1.5||2.1||2.6|
|Real Disposable Personal Income||12436||12609||12822||13265|
|percent change from prior year||4.2||1.4||1.7||3.5|
|Real Personal Consumption Expenditures||11264||11572||11874||12211|
|Real Fixed Investment||2783||2803||2912||3028|
|Business Inventory Change||111.95||35.10||-3.89||28.71|
|Production and Price Indexes|
|Manufacturing Production Index (2007=100)||102.6||102.8||104.2||106.5|
|percent change from prior year||0.2||0.2||1.3||2.2|
|Consumer Price Index (1982-1984=1.00)||2.37||2.40||2.45||2.49|
|Producer Price Index: All Commodities (1982=1.00)||1.90||1.85||1.93||1.97|
|Producer Price Index: Petroleum (1982=1.00)||1.76||1.44||1.68||1.68|
|GDP Implicit Price Deflator (2005=100)||110.0||111.4||113.4||116.0|
Interactive Data Viewers
|Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary|
|Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO2 Emissions|
|Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data|
|U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Total Industrial Production Index||XLSX||PNG|
|U.S. Disposable Income||XLSX||PNG|