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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Nov. 8, 2022  |  Forecast Completed: Nov. 3, 2022  |  Next Release Date: Dec. 6, 2022  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

  • We assume U.S. GDP grows by 1.7% in 2022 and by 1.3% in 2023, down from growth of 5.7% in 2021. We use the S&P Global macroeconomic model to generate our economic forecast for this report.
  • We expect energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the United States to increase by 1.5% in 2022 and then to decrease 2.3% in 2023 to just under 2021 levels.

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth

Total
  2020202120222023
U.S. GDP
(percentage change)
-2.85.91.7-0.1
Housing starts
(millions)
1.401.611.561.23
Non-farm employment
(millions)
142.1146.1152.0151.6
Total industrial production
(Index, 2017=100)
95.3100.0104.3104.2
Heating degree days
(percentage change)
-9.30.57.90.3
Cooling degree days
(percentage change)
1.5-1.93.9-10.6
CO2 emissions
(million metric tons)
4,5804,9044,9754,842

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