U.S. Energy Information Administration logo
Skip to sub-navigation
‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: May 10, 2022  |  Forecast Completed: May 5, 2022  |  Next Release Date: Jun. 7, 2022  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

  • This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 3.1% in both 2022 and 2023, following growth of 5.7% in 2021. We use the S&P Global macroeconomic model to generate our U.S. economic assumptions. Global macroeconomic assumptions in our forecast are from Oxford Economics and include global GDP growth of 3.4% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023, compared with growth of 6.0% in 2021.
  • U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased by more than 6% in 2021 as a result of rising energy use. We expect a 2% increase in energy-related CO2 emissions in 2022, primarily from growing transportation-related petroleum consumption. Forecast energy-related CO2 emissions remain relatively unchanged in 2023. We expect petroleum emissions to increase by 3% in 2022 compared with 2021 before growth slows to 1% in 2023. Natural gas emissions rise by 3% in our forecast for 2022, then remain unchanged in 2023. We forecast that coal-related CO2 emissions will fall by 2% in 2022 and by 5% in 2023.

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth

Macroeconomics & CO2 Emissions Summary
  2020202120222023
aIncludes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income 6.22.2-4.33.5
Manufacturing Production Index -6.46.55.95.2
Cooling Degree Days 1.5-1.8-6.2-2.2
Heating Degree Days -9.30.58.5-1.6
Number of Households 0.40.81.01.0
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel (million metric tons)
Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels 2,0432,2242,2812,305
Natural Gas 1,6481,6371,6841,682
Coal 8751,001983936
Total Energya 4,5774,8724,9594,935

Interactive Data Viewers

Provides custom data views of historical and forecast data

STEO Data browser ›
Real Prices Viewer ›

Related Figures
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. annual energy expenditures share of gross domestic product XLSX PNG