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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: May 10, 2022  |  Forecast Completed: May 5, 2022  |  Next Release Date: Jun. 7, 2022  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

  • This STEO assumes U.S. GDP will grow by 3.1% in both 2022 and 2023, following growth of 5.7% in 2021. We use the S&P Global macroeconomic model to generate our U.S. economic assumptions. Global macroeconomic assumptions in our forecast are from Oxford Economics and include global GDP growth of 3.4% in 2022 and 3.5% in 2023, compared with growth of 6.0% in 2021.
  • U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions increased by more than 6% in 2021 as a result of rising energy use. We expect a 2% increase in energy-related CO2 emissions in 2022, primarily from growing transportation-related petroleum consumption. Forecast energy-related CO2 emissions remain relatively unchanged in 2023. We expect petroleum emissions to increase by 3% in 2022 compared with 2021 before growth slows to 1% in 2023. Natural gas emissions rise by 3% in our forecast for 2022, then remain unchanged in 2023. We forecast that coal-related CO2 emissions will fall by 2% in 2022 and by 5% in 2023.

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth

Macroeconomics & CO2 Emissions Summary
aIncludes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income 6.22.2-4.33.5
Manufacturing Production Index -
Cooling Degree Days 1.5-1.8-6.2-2.2
Heating Degree Days -
Number of Households
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel (million metric tons)
Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels 2,0432,2242,2812,305
Natural Gas 1,6481,6371,6841,682
Coal 8751,001983936
Total Energya 4,5774,8724,9594,935

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Related Figures
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. annual energy expenditures share of gross domestic product XLSX PNG