Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The STEO is based on macroeconomic forecasts by IHS Markit (for the United States). EIA used the January 2021 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in STEO.

Using the IHS Markit model, EIA assumes U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 3.8% in 2021 and grow by 4.2% in 2022, compared with a decline of 3.6% in 2020. EIA assumes that total industrial production will increase 5.0% in 2021 and increase 4.3% in 2022, compared with a 6.8% decline in 2020. In the forecast, nonfarm employment, which declined by 5.7% in 2020, increases by 2.9% in 2021 and will increase by 3.4% in 2022.

EIA estimates that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decreased by 11% in 2020. This decline in emissions is the result of less energy consumption related to economic contraction in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2021, EIA forecasts that energy-related CO2 emissions will increase by about 4% from the 2020 level as economic activity increases leading to rising energy use. Energy-related CO2 emissions are also expected to rise by 3% in 2022 as economic growth continues.

Macroeconomics & CO2 Emissions Summary
	2019	2020	2021projected	2022projected
^aIncludes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income	2.2	6.1	-0.8	-0.2
Manufacturing Production Index	0.0	-6.5	5.8	4.0
Cooling Degree Days	-5.2	1.5	-6.0	0.2
Heating Degree Days	0.6	-9.3	3.7	2.0
Number of Households	0.8	0.0	1.4	1.0
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel	(million metric tons)
Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels	2,365	2,031	2,178	2,289
Natural Gas	1,694	1,662	1,626	1,612
Coal	1,076	874	939	993
Total Energy^a	5,146	4,578	4,754	4,905

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Related Tables
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, Electric Power Sector	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF

Related Figures
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. annual energy expenditures share of gross domestic product	XLSX	PNG

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