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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: May 7, 2019  |  Next Release Date: June 11, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Recent Economic Indicators.

  • EIA used the April 2019 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in STEO. Using the IHS Markit model, EIA forecasts real GDP to grow by 2.4% in 2019 and by 2.1% in 2020, compared with 2.9% growth in 2018.

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions.

  • After rising by 2.7% in 2018, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 2.1% in 2019 and by 0.8% in 2020. EIA expects emissions to fall in 2019 and in 2020 as forecast temperatures return to near normal after a warm summer and cold winter in 2018 and because the forecast share of electricity generated from natural gas and renewables increases while the forecast share generated from coal, which produces more CO2 emissions, decreases. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth

Macroeconomics & CO2 Emissions Summary
  2017201820192020
aIncludes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income 2.62.92.52.4
Manufacturing Production Index 2.02.71.71.5
Cooling Degree Days -8.311.1-12.9-0.0
Heating Degree Days -1.311.7-1.4-1.4
Number of Households 1.01.21.01.1
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel (million metric tons)
Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels 2,3302,3692,3682,385
Natural Gas 1,4741,6301,6671,689
Coal 1,3161,2591,1091,032
Total Energya 5,1315,2685,1565,116

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