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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: September 10, 2019  |  Next Release Date: October 8, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Recent Economic Indicators.
  • EIA used the August 2019 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in STEO. Using the IHS Markit model, EIA forecasts real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2.3% in 2019 and by 2.3% in 2020, compared with 2.9% growth in 2018.
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions.
  • EIA forecasts that, after rising by 2.7% in 2018, U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 2.5% in 2019 and by 1.0% in 2020. In 2019, EIA forecasts that space cooling demand (as measured in cooling degree days) will be lower than in 2018, when it was 13% higher than the previous 10-year (2008–17) average. In addition, EIA expects U.S. CO2 emissions in 2019 to decline because the forecast share of electricity generated from natural gas and renewables is increasing while the forecast share generated from coal, which is a more carbon-intensive energy source, is decreasing.

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth

Macroeconomics & CO2 Emissions Summary
  2017201820192020
aIncludes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income 2.94.03.12.4
Manufacturing Production Index 2.02.7-0.00.7
Cooling Degree Days -8.310.9-9.7-3.2
Heating Degree Days -1.311.80.2-2.6
Number of Households 0.91.21.01.1
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel (million metric tons)
Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels 2,3322,3722,3562,364
Natural Gas 1,4741,6291,6811,699
Coal 1,3161,2591,0901,010
Total Energya 5,1335,2715,1375,084

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Related Figures
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. annual energy expenditures share of gross domestic product XLSX PNG