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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: July 9, 2019  |  Next Release Date: August 6, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Production, Income, and Employment. EIA used the June 2019 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in STEO.

Using the IHS Markit model, EIA forecasts real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2.5% in 2019 and by 1.8% in 2020, compared with 2.9% growth in 2018. EIA forecasts that total industrial production will increase 1.2% in 2019 and 1.0% in 2020— down from 3.9% growth in 2018. Nonfarm employment, which grew by 1.7% in 2018, is forecast by EIA to increase by 1.6% in 2019 and by 1.1% in 2020.

Expenditures. EIA forecasts private real fixed investment to grow by 1.4% in both 2019 and 2020, compared with 5.2% growth for 2018. Real consumption expenditures, which grew by 2.6% in 2018, are forecast by EIA to grow by 2.4% in 2019 and by 2.2% in 2020.

Using the IHS Markit model, EIA forecasts U.S. exports to grow by 1.3% in 2019 and by 2.9% in 2020, compared with 4.0% growth in 2018. Imports are forecast by EIA to grow by 0.7% in 2019 and by 2.8% in 2020, compared with 4.5% growth in 2018. Total government expenditures are forecast by EIA to increase by 2.2% in 2019 and by 1.5% in 2020, compared with an increase of 1.5% in 2018.

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions. After increasing by 2.7% in 2018, EIA forecasts that energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decrease by 2.2% in 2019 and further decrease by 0.7% in 2020. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix. In 2018, the winter was colder and the summer hotter than in 2017, and the economy grew by almost 3%, contributing to higher CO2 emissions.

Energy-related CO2 emissions for the first quarter of 2019 were up slightly compared to the first quarter of 2018—1 million metric tons—with increases from natural gas offset by reductions from coal and petroleum. For the rest of the year, as forecast weather is closer to normal and economic growth moderates, EIA forecasts that emissions will decline. The change in fuel mix for electricity generation also helps to moderate CO2 emissions growth in 2019 and 2020.

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth

Macroeconomics & CO2 Emissions Summary
  2017201820192020
aIncludes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income 2.62.82.22.4
Manufacturing Production Index 2.02.70.51.2
Cooling Degree Days -8.311.0-13.70.7
Heating Degree Days -1.311.70.2-2.8
Number of Households 1.01.21.01.1
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel (million metric tons)
Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels 2,3302,3692,3712,375
Natural Gas 1,4741,6291,6821,683
Coal 1,3161,2591,0901,050
Total Energya 5,1315,2685,1545,119

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Related Figures
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. annual energy expenditures share of gross domestic product XLSX PNG