Short-Term Energy Outlook

Renewables and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017 to 34% in 2018 and to 35% in 2019. EIA’s forecast electricity generation share from coal averages 28% in 2018 and 27% in 2019, down from 30% in 2017. The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and is forecast to be 20% in 2018 and 19% in 2019. Nonhydropower renewables provided slightly less than 10% of electricity generation in 2017, and EIA expects them to provide more than 10% in 2018 and nearly 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was 7% in 2017 and is forecast to be about the same in 2018 and 2019.

In 2017, EIA estimates that U.S. wind generation averaged 697,000 megawatthours per day (MWh/d). EIA forecasts that wind generation will rise by 8% to 756,000 MWh/d in 2018 and by 4% to 784,000 MWh/d in 2019.

Solar power generates less electricity in the United States than wind power, but solar power also continues to grow. EIA expects solar generation will rise from 211,000 MWh/d in 2017 to 263,000 MWh/d in 2018 (an increase of 24%) and to 289,000 MWh/d in 2019 (an increase of 10%).

After declining by 0.9% in 2017, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will rise by 2.3% in 2018. The increase largely reflects higher natural gas consumption because of a colder winter and a warmer summer than in 2017. Emissions are forecast to decline by 0.9% in 2019. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

U.S. Renewables & CO2 Emissions Summary
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
^aConventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy. ^bIncludes electricity and heat generation ^cOther renewables includes biofuels production losses and co-products ^dIncludes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
U.S. Renewables Consumption	(quadrillion Btu)
Geothermal	0.210	0.211	0.221	0.229
Hydropower^a	2.472	2.770	2.566	2.533
Solar	0.569	0.774	0.944	1.039
Waste Biomass	0.503	0.482	0.493	0.494
Wind	2.094	2.345	2.543	2.639
Wood Biomass	2.131	2.145	2.192	2.169
Electricity Subtotal^b	7.960	8.705	8.902	9.070
Biomass-based Diesel	0.291	0.280	0.301	0.350
Ethanol	1.182	1.192	1.192	1.199
Biofuels Subtotal	1.473	1.472	1.495	1.550
Other^c	0.801	0.817	0.822	0.814
Total	10.233	10.994	11.221	11.434
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel	(million metric tons)
Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels	2,327	2,338	2,371	2,383
Natural Gas	1,496	1,474	1,587	1,583
Coal	1,354	1,318	1,291	1,235
Total Energy^d	5,189	5,142	5,260	5,212

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Related Tables
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, All Sectors	PDF
Table 8a. U.S. Renewable Energy Consumption	PDF
Table 8b. U.S. Renewable Electricity Generation and Capacity	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF

Related Figures
U.S. renewable energy supply	XLSX	PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG

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