Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Recent Economic Indicators.

EIA used the February 2019 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in STEO. Using the IHS Markit model, EIA forecasts real GDP to grow by 2.5% in 2019 and by 2.0% in 2020, compared with 2.9% growth in 2018.

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions.

After rising by 2.9% in 2018, EIA forecasts that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 1.6% in 2019 and by 0.5% in 2020. The 2018 increase largely reflected increased weather-related natural gas use because of additional heating needs during a colder winter and for higher electric generation to support more summer cooling use than in 2017. EIA expects emissions to fall in 2019 and in 2020 because of forecasted temperatures that will return to near normal and natural gas and renewables making up a higher share of electricity generation. Energy-related CO2 emissions are sensitive to changes in weather, economic growth, energy prices, and fuel mix.

Macroeconomics & CO2 Emissions Summary
	2017	2018	2019projected	2020projected
^aIncludes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income	2.6	2.8	2.6	2.0
Manufacturing Production Index	1.5	2.7	2.8	1.6
Cooling Degree Days	-8.3	10.9	-13.2	0.3
Heating Degree Days	-1.3	11.8	-1.7	-0.6
Number of Households	1.0	1.2	1.1	1.1
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel	(million metric tons)
Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels	2,330	2,377	2,385	2,404
Natural Gas	1,474	1,622	1,658	1,665
Coal	1,316	1,267	1,136	1,083
Total Energy^a	5,131	5,278	5,191	5,163

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Related Tables
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, All Sectors	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF

Related Figures
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. annual energy expenditures share of gross domestic product	XLSX	PNG

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Today In Energy	Daily
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State-Level Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions	Annual
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases in the United States	31-Mar-2011
Understanding the Decline in CO₂ Emissions in 2009	Oct-2009	PDF