U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

• The STEO is based on macroeconomic forecasts by IHS Markit (for the United States). We used the May 2021 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in STEO.

• Using the IHS Markit model, EIA assumes U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) will grow by 6.7% in 2021 and grow by 4.9% in 2022, compared with a decline of 3.5% in 2020. We assume that total industrial production will increase 5.6% in 2021 and increase 6.0% in 2022, compared with a 6.7% decline in 2020. In the forecast, nonfarm employment, which declined by 5.7% in 2020, increases by 3.2% in 2021 and will increase by 3.7% in 2022.

• We estimate that U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions decreased by 11% in 2020 as a result of less energy consumption related to reduced economic activity and responses to COVID-19. In 2021, we forecast energy-related CO2 emissions will increase about 6% from the 2020 level as economic activity increases and leads to rising energy use. We also expect energy-related CO2 emissions to rise in 2022, but by a slower rate of 2%. We forecast that after declining by 19% in 2020, coal-related CO2 emissions will rise by 15% in 2021 and then decrease by 1% in 2022.