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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: November 13, 2019  |  Next Release Date: December 10, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Recent Economic Indicators.
  • EIA used the October 2019 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in STEO. Using the IHS Markit model, EIA forecasts real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2.3% in 2019 and by 2.0% in 2020, compared with 2.9% growth in 2018.
Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions.
  • EIA forecasts that, after rising by 2.7% in 2018, U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.0% in 2020, partially as a result of lower forecast energy consumption. In 2019, EIA forecasts less demand for space cooling because of cooler summer months; an expected 5% decline in cooling degree days from 2018, when it was significantly higher than the previous 10-year (2008–17) average. In addition, EIA also expects U.S. CO2 emissions in 2019 to decline because the forecast share of electricity generated from natural gas and renewables will increase, and the share generated from coal, which is a more carbon-intensive energy source, will decrease.

U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth

Macroeconomics & CO2 Emissions Summary
  2017201820192020
aIncludes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income 2.94.03.12.1
Manufacturing Production Index 2.02.70.21.3
Cooling Degree Days -8.311.0-4.5-7.5
Heating Degree Days -1.311.80.3-2.5
Number of Households 1.00.81.00.9
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel (million metric tons)
Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels 2,3292,3742,3612,355
Natural Gas 1,4741,6251,6821,710
Coal 1,3161,2591,127998
Total Energya 5,1305,2695,1805,074

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Related Figures
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. annual energy expenditures share of gross domestic product XLSX PNG