Short-Term Energy Outlook

U.S. Economic Assumptions and Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions

Recent Economic Indicators.

EIA used the October 2019 version of the IHS Markit macroeconomic model with EIA's energy price forecasts as model inputs to develop the economic forecasts in STEO. Using the IHS Markit model, EIA forecasts real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 2.3% in 2019 and by 2.0% in 2020, compared with 2.9% growth in 2018.

Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions.

EIA forecasts that, after rising by 2.7% in 2018, U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will decline by 1.7% in 2019 and by 2.0% in 2020, partially as a result of lower forecast energy consumption. In 2019, EIA forecasts less demand for space cooling because of cooler summer months; an expected 5% decline in cooling degree days from 2018, when it was significantly higher than the previous 10-year (2008–17) average. In addition, EIA also expects U.S. CO2 emissions in 2019 to decline because the forecast share of electricity generated from natural gas and renewables will increase, and the share generated from coal, which is a more carbon-intensive energy source, will decrease.

Macroeconomics & CO2 Emissions Summary
	2017	2018	2019projected	2020projected
^aIncludes electric power sector use of geothermal energy and non-biomass waste
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income	2.9	4.0	3.1	2.1
Manufacturing Production Index	2.0	2.7	0.2	1.3
Cooling Degree Days	-8.3	11.0	-4.5	-7.5
Heating Degree Days	-1.3	11.8	0.3	-2.5
Number of Households	1.0	0.8	1.0	0.9
Carbon Dioxide Emissions by Fuel	(million metric tons)
Petroleum and Other Liquid Fuels	2,329	2,374	2,361	2,355
Natural Gas	1,474	1,625	1,682	1,710
Coal	1,316	1,259	1,127	998
Total Energy^a	5,130	5,269	5,180	5,074

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Related Tables
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum and Other Liquids Supply, Consumption, and Inventories	PDF
Table 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, Electric Power Sector	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF

Related Figures
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. annual energy expenditures share of gross domestic product	XLSX	PNG

Related Articles
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State-Level Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions	Annual