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We have restored most of our data publications and will publish U.S. on-highway diesel prices today, Thursday, July 7, at 4:00 p.m. We have posted a complete list of releases for the week and will continue to provide updates regarding the status of other data products.

‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Jun. 7, 2022  |  Forecast Completed: Jun. 2, 2022  |  Next Release Date: Jul. 12, 2022  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Prices

  • The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $113 per barrel (b) in May. We expect the Brent price will average $108/b in the second half of 2022 (2H22) and then fall to $97/b in 2023. Current oil inventory levels are low, which amplifies the potential for oil price volatility. Actual price outcomes will largely depend on the degree to which existing sanctions imposed on Russia, any potential future sanctions, and independent corporate actions affect Russia’s oil production or the sale of Russia’s oil in the global market.
  • The U.S. average retail price for regular grade gasoline averaged $4.44 per gallon (gal) in May, and the average retail diesel price was $5.57/gal. Rising prices for gasoline and diesel reflect refining margins for those products that are at or near record highs amid low inventory levels. We expect the gasoline wholesale margins (the difference between the wholesale gasoline price and Brent crude oil price) to fall from $1.17/gal in May to average 81 cents/gal in 3Q22, and we expect retail gasoline prices to average $4.27/gal in 3Q22. Diesel wholesale margins in the forecast fall from $1.53/gal in May to $1.07/gal in 3Q22, and retail diesel averages $4.78/gal in 3Q22.
  • We expect the Henry Hub spot price to average $8.69 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 3Q22, up from an average of $8.13/MMBtu in May. Natural gas prices are rising mainly because of three factors: natural gas inventories that are below the five-year average, steady demand for U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, and high demand for natural gas from the electric power sector given limited opportunities for natural gas-to-coal switching. In 2023, we expect the Henry Hub price will average $4.74/MMBtu amid rising natural gas production.
  • We forecast the U.S. residential electricity price will average 14.6 cents/kWh between June and August 2022, up 4.8% from summer 2021. The forecast summer commercial sector price averages 12.0 cents/kWh (up 4.7%) and the forecast industrial sector price averages 7.7 cents/kWh (up 3.2%). Higher retail electricity prices largely reflect higher wholesale power prices and higher natural gas prices. We expect the summer increases in retail residential electricity prices will range from an increase of 2.4% in the West South Central region to a 16.1% increase in New England.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price

U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices

U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices

Henry Hub natural gas price

U.S. residential electricity prices

Prices
  2020202120222023
aWest Texas Intermediate.
bAverage regular pump price.
cOn-highway retail.
dU.S. Residential average.
eElectric power generation fuel cost.
WTI Crude Oila
(dollars per barrel)
39.1768.21102.4793.24
Brent Crude Oil
(dollars per barrel)
41.6970.89107.3797.24
Gasolineb
(dollars testper gallon)
2.183.024.073.66
Dieselc
(dollars per gallon)
2.563.294.694.14
Heating Oild
(dollars per gallon)
2.443.004.403.89
Natural Gasd
(dollars per thousand cubic feet)
10.7612.2714.4914.78
Electricityd
(cents per kilowatthour)
13.1613.7214.4514.75
Coale
(dollars per million Btu)
1.921.982.072.05

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Related Tables
Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook PDF
Table SF02. Average Summer Residential Electricity Usage, Prices and Expenditures PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories PDF
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices PDF
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Retail Electricity Prices PDF
Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
Henry Hub natural gas price XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas prices XLSX PNG
U.S. residential electricity price XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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