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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Aug. 9, 2022  |  Forecast Completed: Aug. 4, 2022  |  Next Release Date: Sep. 13, 2022  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Prices

  • We forecast the spot price of Brent crude oil will average $105 per barrel (b) in 2022 and $95/b in 2023.
  • The U.S. retail price for regular grade gasoline averaged $4.56 per gallon (gal) in July, and the average retail diesel price was $5.49/gal. We expect retail gasoline prices to average $4.29/gal in the third quarter of 2022 (3Q22) and fall to an average of $3.78/gal in 4Q22. Retail diesel prices in our forecast average $5.02/gal in 3Q22 and $4.39/gal in 4Q22.
  • U.S. refineries average 93% utilization in 3Q22 in our forecast, as a result of high wholesale product margins. Elevated prices for gasoline and diesel reflect refining margins for those products that are at or near record highs amid low inventory levels.
  • In July, the Henry Hub spot price averaged $7.28 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), down from $7.70/MMBtu in June and $8.14/MMBtu in May. Average natural gas prices fell over the last two months primarily because of additional supply in the domestic market following the shutdown of the Freeport LNG export terminal on June 8. However, prices increased by almost 50%, from $5.73/MMBtu on July 1 to $8.37/MMBtu on July 29, because of continued high demand for natural gas from the electric power sector. We expect the Henry Hub price to average $7.54/MMBtu in the second half of 2022 and then fall to an average of $5.10/MMBtu in 2023 amid rising natural gas production.
  • We forecast the U.S. residential electricity price will average 14.6 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in 2022, up 6.1% from 2021. Higher retail electricity prices largely reflect an increase in wholesale power prices driven by rising natural gas prices. Annual average wholesale prices for 2022 range from an average of $62 per megawatthour (MWh) in Florida to $95/MWh in the ISO New England and New York ISO markets.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price

U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices

U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices

Henry Hub natural gas price

U.S. electricity prices

Prices
  2020202120222023
aWest Texas Intermediate.
bAverage regular pump price.
cOn-highway retail.
dU.S. Residential average.
eElectric power generation fuel cost.
WTI Crude Oila
(dollars per barrel)
39.1768.2198.7189.13
Brent Crude Oil
(dollars per barrel)
41.6970.89104.7895.13
Gasolineb
(dollars testper gallon)
2.183.024.073.59
Dieselc
(dollars per gallon)
2.563.294.814.14
Heating Oild
(dollars per gallon)
2.443.004.523.96
Natural Gasd
(dollars per thousand cubic feet)
10.7612.2714.5614.95
Electricityd
(cents per kilowatthour)
13.1613.7214.5614.93
Coale
(dollars per million Btu)
1.921.982.212.19

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
Henry Hub natural gas price XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas prices XLSX PNG
U.S. residential electricity price XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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