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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: October 10, 2018  |  Next Release Date: November 6, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Prices

  • EIA forecasts that average U.S. household expenditures for most major home heating fuels will be higher this winter compared with last winter. Average increases vary by fuel; natural gas expenditures are forecast to rise by 5%, home heating oil by 20%, and electricity by 3%, while propane expenditures are forecast to remain similar to last year. Most of the increase reflects higher forecast energy prices. U.S. average heating degree days are expected to be 1% higher than last winter. However, realized expenditures are highly dependent on actual weather outcomes (Winter Fuels Outlook).
  • Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $79 per barrel (b) in September, up $6/b from August. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $74/b in 2018 and $75/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for January 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending October 4, 2018, suggest a range of $60/b to $93/b encompasses the market expectation for January WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.12/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for January 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending October 4, 2018, suggest a range of $2.22/MMBtu to $4.85/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for January Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price

U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices

U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices

Henry Hub natural gas price

U.S. natural gas prices

U.S. residential electricity price

Prices
  2016201720182019
aWest Texas Intermediate.
bAverage regular pump price.
cOn-highway retail.
dU.S. Residential average.
eElectric power generation fuel cost.
WTI Crude Oila
(dollars per barrel)
43.3350.7968.4669.56
Brent Crude Oil
(dollars per barrel)
43.7454.1574.4375.06
Gasolineb
(dollars testper gallon)
2.152.422.792.85
Dieselc
(dollars per gallon)
2.312.653.203.21
Heating Oild
(dollars per gallon)
2.102.513.053.18
Natural Gasd
(dollars per thousand cubic feet)
10.0410.8610.7410.94
Electricityd
(cents per kilowatthour)
12.5512.9012.9313.31
Coale
(dollars per million Btu)
2.112.082.092.10

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Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price XLSX PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices XLSX PNG
Henry Hub natural gas price XLSX PNG
U.S. natural gas prices XLSX PNG
U.S. residential electricity price XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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