Short-Term Energy Outlook

Prices

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $72 per barrel (b) in April, an increase of $6/b from the March level and the first time monthly Brent crude oil prices have averaged more than $70/b since November 2014. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $71/b in 2018 and $66/b in 2019, which are $7/b and $3/b higher, respectively, than in the April STEO. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $5/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for August 2018 delivery traded during the five-day period ending May 3, 2018, suggest a range of $54/b to $84/b encompasses the market expectation for August 2018 WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

For the 2018 April–September summer driving season, EIA forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.90/gallon (gal), 17 cents/gal higher than in last month’s STEO and up from an average of $2.41/gal last summer. The higher forecast gasoline prices are primarily the result of higher forecast crude oil prices. For the year 2018, EIA expects U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.79/gal. Monthly average gasoline prices are forecast to reach a summer peak of $2.97/gal in June, before falling to $2.86/gal in September.

EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $3.01/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.11/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for August 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending May 3, 2018, suggest that a range of $2.32/MMBtu to $3.40/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for August 2018 Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

Prices
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
^aWest Texas Intermediate. ^bAverage regular pump price. ^cOn-highway retail. ^dU.S. Residential average. ^eElectric power generation fuel cost.
WTI Crude Oil^a (dollars per barrel)	43.33	50.79	65.58	60.86
Brent Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)	43.74	54.15	70.68	65.98
Gasoline^b (dollars testper gallon)	2.15	2.42	2.79	2.71
Diesel^c (dollars per gallon)	2.31	2.65	3.12	3.01
Heating Oil^d (dollars per gallon)	2.10	2.51	2.95	2.97
Natural Gas^d (dollars per thousand cubic feet)	10.04	10.92	10.52	10.91
Electricity^d (cents per kilowatthour)	12.55	12.90	13.09	13.56
Coal^e (dollars per million Btu)	2.11	2.08	2.20	2.22

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Related Tables
Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook	PDF
Table SF02. Average Summer Residential Electricity Usage, Prices and Expenditures	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories	PDF
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices	PDF
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Retail Electricity Prices	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Diesel Fuel and Crude Oil Prices	XLSX	PNG
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Natural Gas Prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Residential Electricity Price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions	XLSX	PNG

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