Short-Term Energy Outlook

Prices

EIA delayed the release of the March STEO update by one day to incorporate recent significant global oil market developments. On March 9, Brent crude oil front-month futures prices fell below $35/b, a 24% daily decline and the second largest daily price decline on record. Prices fell following the March 6 meeting between members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partner countries, which ended without an agreement on production levels amid market expectations for declining global oil demand growth in the coming months. In addition to the following highlights, EIA has provided a short summary of the March STEO forecast in the crude oil section of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Markets Review (PNGMR).

EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $43/b in 2020, down from an average of $64/b in 2019. For 2020, EIA expects prices will average $37/b during the second quarter and then rise to $42/b during the second half of the year. EIA forecasts that average Brent prices will rise to an average of $55/b in 2021, as declining global oil inventories put upward pressure on prices.

Based on the lower crude oil price forecast, EIA expects U.S. retail prices for regular grade gasoline to average $2.14 per gallon (gal) in 2020, down from $2.60/gal in 2019. EIA expects retail gasoline prices to fall to a monthly average of $1.97/gal in April before rising to an average of $2.13/gal from June through August.

In February, the Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $1.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu). Warmer-than-normal temperatures in February reduced demand for space heating and put downward pressure on prices. EIA forecasts that prices will begin to rise in the second quarter of 2020 as U.S. natural gas production declines and natural gas use for power generation increases the demand for natural gas. EIA expects prices to average $2.22/MMBtu in the third quarter of 2020. EIA forecasts that Henry Hub natural gas spot prices will average $2.11/MMBtu in 2020. EIA expects that natural gas prices will then increase in 2021, reaching an annual average of $2.51/MMBtu.

Prices
	2018	2019	2020projected	2021projected
^aWest Texas Intermediate. ^bAverage regular pump price. ^cOn-highway retail. ^dU.S. Residential average. ^eElectric power generation fuel cost.
WTI Crude Oil^a (dollars per barrel)	65.06	57.02	38.19	50.36
Brent Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)	71.19	64.37	43.30	55.36
Gasoline^b (dollars testper gallon)	2.73	2.60	2.14	2.33
Diesel^c (dollars per gallon)	3.18	3.06	2.54	2.73
Heating Oil^d (dollars per gallon)	3.01	3.00	2.63	2.71
Natural Gas^d (dollars per thousand cubic feet)	10.46	10.56	10.24	10.33
Electricity^d (cents per kilowatthour)	12.87	13.02	13.05	13.32
Coal^e (dollars per million Btu)	2.06	2.02	2.05	2.06

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Related Tables
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories	PDF
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices	PDF
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Retail Electricity Prices	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
Henry Hub natural gas price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. residential electricity price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions	XLSX	PNG

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