Prices

• EIA forecasts that average U.S. household expenditures for most major home heating fuels will be higher this winter compared with last winter. Average increases vary by fuel; natural gas expenditures are forecast to rise by 5%, home heating oil by 20%, and electricity by 3%, while propane expenditures are forecast to remain similar to last year. Most of the increase reflects higher forecast energy prices. U.S. average heating degree days are expected to be 1% higher than last winter. However, realized expenditures are highly dependent on actual weather outcomes (Winter Fuels Outlook).

• Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $79 per barrel (b) in September, up $6/b from August. EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $74/b in 2018 and $75/b in 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $6/b lower than Brent prices in 2018 and in 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for January 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending October 4, 2018, suggest a range of $60/b to $93/b encompasses the market expectation for January WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

• EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.12/MMBtu in 2019. NYMEX futures and options contract values for January 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending October 4, 2018, suggest a range of $2.22/MMBtu to $4.85/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for January Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.