Short-Term Energy Outlook

Prices

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $81 per barrel (b) in October, up $2/b from September. Despite the increase in monthly average prices, Brent spot prices declined from $85/b on October 1 to $75/b on October 31.

EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $72 in 2019 and that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $7/b lower than Brent prices next year. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for February 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending November 1, 2018, suggest a range of $53/b to $83/b encompasses the market expectation for February WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.86 per gallon (gal) in October, an increase of 2 cents/gal from the average in September, marking the sixth consecutive month that U.S. prices averaged between $2.85/gal and $2.90/gal. EIA forecasts the average U.S. regular gasoline retail price will fall to $2.57/gal in December 2018. EIA forecasts that regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.75/gal in 2018 and in 2019.

Despite low storage levels, EIA expects strong growth in U.S. natural gas production to put downward pressure on prices in 2019. EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.98/million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2019, down 4 cents from the 2018 average and down from a forecast average price of $3.25/MMBtu in the fourth quarter of 2018. NYMEX futures and options contract values for February 2019 delivery traded during the five-day period ending November 1, 2018, suggest a range of $2.06/MMBtu to $4.94/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for February Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

Prices
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
^aWest Texas Intermediate. ^bAverage regular pump price. ^cOn-highway retail. ^dU.S. Residential average. ^eElectric power generation fuel cost.
WTI Crude Oil^a (dollars per barrel)	43.33	50.79	66.79	64.85
Brent Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)	43.74	54.15	73.12	71.92
Gasoline^b (dollars testper gallon)	2.15	2.42	2.75	2.75
Diesel^c (dollars per gallon)	2.31	2.65	3.19	3.21
Heating Oil^d (dollars per gallon)	2.10	2.51	3.03	3.08
Natural Gas^d (dollars per thousand cubic feet)	10.04	10.86	10.76	10.91
Electricity^d (cents per kilowatthour)	12.55	12.89	12.93	13.32
Coal^e (dollars per million Btu)	2.11	2.06	2.08	2.10

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Related Tables
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories	PDF
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices	PDF
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Retail Electricity Prices	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
Henry Hub natural gas price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. residential electricity price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions	XLSX	PNG

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