Short-Term Energy Outlook

Prices

Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $60 per barrel (b) in October, down $3/b from September and down $21/b from October 2018. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average $60/b in 2020, down from a 2019 average of $64/b. EIA forecasts that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices will average $5.50/b less than Brent prices in 2020. EIA expects crude oil prices will be lower on average in 2020 than in 2019 because of forecast rising global oil inventories, particularly in the first half of next year.

U.S. regular gasoline retail prices averaged $2.63 per gallon (gal) in October, up 3 cents/gal from September and 11 cents/gal higher than forecast in last month’s STEO. Average U.S. regular gasoline retail prices were higher than expected, in large part, because of ongoing issues from refinery outages in California. EIA forecasts that regular gasoline prices on the West Coast (PADD 5), a region that includes California, will fall as the issues begin to resolve. EIA expects that prices in the region will average $3.44/gal in November and $3.12/gal in December. For the U.S. national average, EIA expects regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.65/gal in November and fall to $2.50/gal in December. EIA forecasts that the annual average price in 2020 will be $2.62/gal.

The Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $2.33 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in October, down 23 cents/MMBtu from September. The decline largely reflected strong inventory injections. However, forecast cold temperatures across much of the country caused prices to rise in early November, and EIA forecasts Henry Hub prices to average $2.73/MMBtu for the final two months of 2019. EIA forecasts Henry Hub spot prices to average $2.48/MMBtu in 2020, down 13 cents/MMBtu from the 2019 average. Lower forecast prices in 2020 reflect a decline in U.S. natural gas demand and slowing U.S. natural gas export growth, allowing inventories to remain higher than the five-year average during the year even as natural gas production growth is forecast to slow.

Prices
	2017	2018	2019projected	2020projected
^aWest Texas Intermediate. ^bAverage regular pump price. ^cOn-highway retail. ^dU.S. Residential average. ^eElectric power generation fuel cost.
WTI Crude Oil^a (dollars per barrel)	50.79	65.06	56.45	54.60
Brent Crude Oil (dollars per barrel)	54.15	71.19	63.59	60.10
Gasoline^b (dollars testper gallon)	2.42	2.73	2.60	2.62
Diesel^c (dollars per gallon)	2.65	3.18	3.06	3.04
Heating Oil^d (dollars per gallon)	2.51	3.01	3.01	3.05
Natural Gas^d (dollars per thousand cubic feet)	10.86	10.46	10.85	10.66
Electricity^d (cents per kilowatthour)	12.89	12.89	12.99	13.11
Coal^e (dollars per million Btu)	2.06	2.06	2.07	2.10

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Related Tables
Table WF01. Average Consumer Prices and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories	PDF
Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices	PDF
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Retail Electricity Prices	PDF

Related Figures
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. gasoline and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. diesel fuel and crude oil prices	XLSX	PNG
Henry Hub natural gas price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. natural gas prices	XLSX	PNG
U.S. residential electricity price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions	XLSX	PNG

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