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‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: Aug. 9, 2022  |  Forecast Completed: Aug. 4, 2022  |  Next Release Date: Sep. 7, 2022  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures


  • We expect U.S. sales of electricity to ultimate customers to increase in the forecast by 2.5% in 2022, mostly because of rising economic activity but also because of hot summer weather in much of the country. Forecast U.S. sales of electricity decline by 0.3% in 2023.
  • The largest increases in U.S. electricity generation in our forecast come from renewable energy sources, mostly solar and wind. We expect renewable sources will provide 22% of U.S. generation in 2022 and 24% in 2023, up from 20% in 2021.
  • We forecast the U.S. residential electricity price will average 14.6 cents per kilowatthour (kWh) in 2022, up 6.1% from 2021. Higher retail electricity prices largely reflect an increase in wholesale power prices driven by rising natural gas prices. Annual average wholesale prices for 2022 range from an average of $62 per megawatthour (MWh) in Florida to $95/MWh in the ISO New England and New York ISO markets.
  • The U.S. electric power sector added 13 gigawatts (GW) of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity in 2021. Solar capacity additions in the forecast period total 20 GW for 2022 and 24 GW for 2023, and they represent an addition of 31 billion kWh of electric power generation in 2022 and 41 billion kWh in 2023.

U.S. electricity generation

U.S. renewable energy supply

U.S. electricity prices

U.S. Electricity Summary
aConventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy.
bIncludes electricity and heat generation
cOther renewables includes biofuels production losses and co-products
Prices to Ultimate Customers (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector 13.1613.7214.5614.93
Commercial Sector 10.5911.2711.9712.23
Industrial Sector 6.677.267.897.78
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal 1.921.982.212.19
Natural Gas 2.404.977.115.33
Residual Fuel Oil 9.1513.6620.2317.90
Distillate Fuel Oil 10.8915.5024.7622.48
Generation (billion kWh)
Coal 773.39898.68888.83803.11
Natural Gas 1,624.171,575.231,590.811,559.45
Nuclear 789.88778.15774.55786.96
Conventional Hydroelectric 285.27260.22271.49280.09
Renewable (non-hydroelectric) 497.73566.16657.92719.53
Total Generation 4,007.144,115.544,221.434,185.37
Sales to Ultimate Customers (billion kWh)
Residential Sector 1,464.611,476.571,494.021,475.10
Commercial Sector 1,287.441,324.781,370.851,365.95
Industrial Sector 959.08986.801,018.521,032.66
Total Sales to Ultimate Customers 3,717.673,794.543,889.773,879.97
U.S. Renewables Consumption (quadrillion Btu)
Geothermal 0.2030.2060.2100.206
Hydropowera 2.5032.2832.4062.494
Solar 1.2261.5191.8962.371
Waste Biomass 0.4400.4310.4260.425
Wind 3.0023.3723.9384.134
Wood Biomass 2.0652.0872.0972.159
Electricity Subtotalb 9.4399.89810.91611.788
Biomass-based Diesel 0.2390.2100.2100.184
Ethanol 1.0451.1461.1501.163
Biofuels Subtotal 1.2841.3561.3611.347
Otherc 0.7350.7890.8190.808
Total 11.56912.20613.41214.337

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Related Figures
U.S. electricity consumption XLSX PNG
U.S. residential electricity price XLSX PNG
U.S. electricity generation by fuel, all sectors XLSX PNG
U.S. renewable energy supply XLSX PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth XLSX PNG
U.S. summer cooling degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days XLSX PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions XLSX PNG
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