Short-Term Energy Outlook

Electricity

EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 35% in 2018 to 37% in 2019 and to 38% in 2020. EIA forecasts that the share of generation from coal will average 24% in 2019 and 23% in 2020, down from 27% in 2018. The forecast nuclear share of generation falls from 20% in 2019 to 19% in 2020, reflecting the retirement of some nuclear reactors. Hydropower averages a 7% share of total generation in the forecast for 2019 and 2020, similar to 2018. Wind, solar, and other nonhydropower renewables together provided 10% of U.S. generation in 2018. EIA expects they will provide 11% in 2019 and 13% in 2020.

EIA forecasts that renewable fuels, including wind, solar, and hydropower, will collectively produce 18% of U.S. electricity in 2019 and almost 20% in 2020. EIA expects that annual generation from wind will surpass hydropower generation for the first time in 2019 to become the leading source of renewable electricity generation and maintain that position in 2020.

U.S. Electricity Summary
	2017	2018	2019projected	2020projected
^aConventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy. ^bIncludes electricity and heat generation ^cOther renewables includes biofuels production losses and co-products
Retail Prices	(cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector	12.89	12.89	13.06	13.22
Commercial Sector	10.66	10.66	10.68	10.73
Industrial Sector	6.88	6.93	6.89	6.94
Power Generation Fuel Costs	(dollars per million Btu)
Coal	2.06	2.06	2.11	2.13
Natural Gas	3.37	3.54	3.07	2.98
Residual Fuel Oil	11.01	12.95	12.82	13.10
Distillate Fuel Oil	13.27	16.13	15.94	17.42
Generation	(billion kWh per day)
Coal	3.304	3.141	2.706	2.536
Natural Gas	3.552	4.022	4.160	4.230
Nuclear	2.205	2.211	2.186	2.144
Conventional Hydroelectric	0.822	0.796	0.782	0.764
Renewable (non-hydroelectric)	1.058	1.153	1.260	1.440
Total Generation	11.053	11.446	11.205	11.228
Retail Sales	(billion kWh per day)
Residential Sector	3.78	4.01	3.88	3.91
Commercial Sector	3.71	3.77	3.73	3.74
Industrial Sector	2.70	2.61	2.61	2.60
Total Retail Sales	10.20	10.42	10.24	10.28
U.S. Renewables Consumption	(quadrillion Btu)
Geothermal	0.210	0.218	0.212	0.211
Hydropower^a	2.767	2.688	2.635	2.582
Solar	0.777	0.951	1.089	1.325
Waste Biomass	0.495	0.492	0.482	0.482
Wind	2.346	2.536	2.831	3.293
Wood Biomass	2.285	2.357	2.238	2.205
Electricity Subtotal^b	8.860	9.218	9.490	10.065
Biomass-based Diesel	0.280	0.256	0.290	0.317
Ethanol	1.192	1.185	1.202	1.209
Biofuels Subtotal	1.473	1.441	1.493	1.526
Other^c	0.821	0.823	0.814	0.824
Total	11.154	11.482	11.799	12.415

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U.S. electricity consumption	XLSX	PNG
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U.S. summer cooling degree days	XLSX	PNG
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