Short-Term Energy Outlook

Electricity

EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017 to 34% in both 2018 and 2019. The forecast electricity generation share from coal averages 29% in both 2018 and 2019, down from 30% in 2017. The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and is forecast to be 20% in 2018 and 19% in 2019. Nonhydropower renewables provided slightly less than 10% of electricity generation in 2017 and are expected to provide more than 10% in 2018 and nearly 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was 7% in 2017 and is forecast to fall slightly below that level both 2018 and 2019.

In 2017, EIA estimates that wind generated an average of 697,000 megawatthours per day (MWh/d). EIA forecasts that wind generation will rise to 741,000 MWh/d in 2018 and to 766,000 MWh/d in 2019. If factors such as precipitation and snowpack remain as forecast, conventional hydropower is forecast to generate 747,000 MWh/d in 2019, making it the first year that wind generation would exceed hydropower generation in the United States.

U.S. Electricity Summary
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
Retail Prices	(cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector	12.55	12.90	13.09	13.56
Commercial Sector	10.43	10.68	10.94	11.06
Industrial Sector	6.76	6.91	7.17	7.26
Power Generation Fuel Costs	(dollars per million Btu)
Coal	2.11	2.08	2.20	2.22
Natural Gas	2.87	3.38	3.49	3.49
Residual Fuel Oil	8.46	10.97	12.78	12.87
Distillate Fuel Oil	10.82	13.26	16.41	16.02
Generation	(billion kWh per day)
Coal	3.386	3.309	3.228	3.211
Natural Gas	3.766	3.487	3.778	3.852
Nuclear	2.201	2.205	2.206	2.138
Conventional Hydroelectric	0.732	0.822	0.766	0.747
Renewable (non-hydroelectric)	0.933	1.061	1.137	1.189
Total Generation	11.138	10.999	11.247	11.262
Retail Sales	(billion kWh per day)
Residential Sector	3.86	3.78	3.92	3.92
Commercial Sector	3.74	3.70	3.73	3.75
Industrial Sector	2.67	2.59	2.63	2.65
Total Retail Sales	10.28	10.09	10.31	10.33
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income	1.4	1.2	2.5	3.4
Manufacturing Production Index	-0.7	1.5	2.8	2.6
Cooling Degree Days	4.7	-8.6	-4.1	0.4
Heating Degree Days	-5.1	-1.2	12.8	-1.9
Number of Households	0.4	1.1	1.1	1.1

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Related Tables
Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook	PDF
Table SF02. Average Summer Residential Electricity Usage, Prices and Expenditures	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview	PDF
Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales	PDF
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Retail Electricity Prices	PDF
Table 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, All Sectors	PDF
Table 7e. U.S. Regional Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation, All Sectors	PDF
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Related Figures
U.S. Electricity Consumption	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Residential Electricity Price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel, All Sectors	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Renewable Energy Supply	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Energy-Related Carbon Dioxide Emissions Growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Summer Cooling Degree Days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Winter Heating Degree Days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Total Industrial Production Index	XLSX	PNG
U.S. Disposable Income	XLSX	PNG

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