Short-Term Energy Outlook

Electricity

EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017 to 34% in 2018 and 2019. The forecast electricity generation share from coal averages 28% in 2018 and 2019, down from 30% in 2017. The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and is forecast to be 20% in 2018 and 19% in 2019. Nonhydropower renewables provided slightly less than 10% of electricity generation in 2017 and are expected to provide more than 10% in 2018 and nearly 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was 7% in 2017 and is forecast to be about the same in 2018 and 2019.

In 2017, EIA estimates that wind generation averaged 697,000 megawatthours per day (MWh/d). EIA forecasts that wind generation will rise to 746,000 MWh/d in 2018 and to 777,000 MWh/d in 2019. If factors such as precipitation and snowpack remain as forecast, conventional hydropower is forecast to generate 752,000 MWh/d in 2019, which would make it the first year that wind generation exceeds hydropower generation in the United States.

U.S. Electricity Summary
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
Retail Prices	(cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector	12.55	12.90	13.05	13.53
Commercial Sector	10.43	10.68	10.87	10.99
Industrial Sector	6.76	6.91	7.10	7.21
Power Generation Fuel Costs	(dollars per million Btu)
Coal	2.11	2.08	2.19	2.22
Natural Gas	2.87	3.38	3.46	3.45
Residual Fuel Oil	8.46	10.97	12.85	13.15
Distillate Fuel Oil	10.82	13.26	16.28	16.31
Generation	(billion kWh per day)
Coal	3.386	3.309	3.162	3.125
Natural Gas	3.766	3.487	3.823	3.829
Nuclear	2.201	2.205	2.210	2.186
Conventional Hydroelectric	0.732	0.822	0.779	0.752
Renewable (non-hydroelectric)	0.933	1.061	1.140	1.203
Total Generation	11.138	10.999	11.242	11.218
Retail Sales	(billion kWh per day)
Residential Sector	3.86	3.78	3.93	3.91
Commercial Sector	3.74	3.70	3.73	3.74
Industrial Sector	2.67	2.59	2.62	2.64
Total Retail Sales	10.28	10.09	10.30	10.30
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income	1.4	1.2	2.0	3.0
Manufacturing Production Index	-0.7	1.5	2.3	2.7
Cooling Degree Days	4.7	-8.6	-1.7	-2.1
Heating Degree Days	-5.1	-1.2	11.8	-1.5
Number of Households	0.4	1.1	1.1	1.1

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U.S. Electricity Consumption	XLSX	PNG
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