Short-Term Energy Outlook

Electricity

EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants to rise from 32% in 2017 to 34% in 2018 and to 35% in 2019. EIA’s forecast electricity generation share from coal averages 28% in 2018 and 27% in 2019, down from 30% in 2017. The nuclear share of generation was 20% in 2017 and is forecast to be 20% in 2018 and then fall to 19% in 2019. Nonhydropower renewables provided slightly less than 10% of electricity generation in 2017 and EIA expects it to provide more than 10% in 2018 and nearly 11% in 2019. The generation share of hydropower was 7% in 2017 and is forecast to be about the same in 2018 and 2019.

In 2017, EIA estimates that wind generation averaged 697,000 megawatthours per day (MWh/d). EIA forecasts that wind generation will rise by 7% to 746,000 MWh/d in 2018 and by 5% in to 782,000 MWh/d in 2019.

Although solar power generates less electricity in the United States than wind power, solar power continues to grow. EIA expects solar generation will rise from 211,000 MWh/d in 2017 to 260,000 MWh/d in 2018 (an increase of 23%) and to 290,000 MWh/d in 2019 (an increase of 12%).

U.S. Electricity Summary
	2016	2017	2018projected	2019projected
Retail Prices	(cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector	12.55	12.90	12.96	13.31
Commercial Sector	10.43	10.68	10.79	10.86
Industrial Sector	6.76	6.91	7.03	7.09
Power Generation Fuel Costs	(dollars per million Btu)
Coal	2.11	2.08	2.10	2.09
Natural Gas	2.87	3.38	3.43	3.40
Residual Fuel Oil	8.46	10.97	12.75	13.54
Distillate Fuel Oil	10.82	13.26	16.38	16.77
Generation	(billion kWh per day)
Coal	3.386	3.309	3.225	3.066
Natural Gas	3.766	3.487	3.850	3.899
Nuclear	2.201	2.205	2.217	2.186
Conventional Hydroelectric	0.732	0.822	0.758	0.742
Renewable (non-hydroelectric)	0.933	1.061	1.145	1.197
Total Generation	11.138	10.999	11.321	11.213
Retail Sales	(billion kWh per day)
Residential Sector	3.86	3.78	3.99	3.90
Commercial Sector	3.74	3.70	3.75	3.73
Industrial Sector	2.67	2.59	2.62	2.65
Total Retail Sales	10.28	10.09	10.37	10.30
Primary Assumptions	(percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income	1.4	1.2	2.2	3.1
Manufacturing Production Index	-0.7	1.5	2.5	2.3
Cooling Degree Days	4.7	-8.5	5.2	-8.7
Heating Degree Days	-5.1	-1.2	11.0	-1.5
Number of Households	0.4	1.1	1.1	1.1

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Related Tables
Table SF01. U.S. Motor Gasoline Summer Outlook	PDF
Table SF02. Average Summer Residential Electricity Usage, Prices and Expenditures	PDF
Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary	PDF
Table 2. Energy Prices	PDF
Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview	PDF
Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales	PDF
Table 7c. U.S. Regional Retail Electricity Prices	PDF
Table 7d. U.S. Regional Electricity Generation, All Sectors	PDF
Table 7e. U.S. Regional Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation, All Sectors	PDF
Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Indicators and CO₂ Emissions	PDF
Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data	PDF
Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data	PDF

Related Figures
U.S. electricity consumption	XLSX	PNG
U.S. residential electricity price	XLSX	PNG
U.S. electricity generation by fuel, all sectors	XLSX	PNG
U.S. renewable energy supply	XLSX	PNG
U.S. carbon dioxide emissions growth	XLSX	PNG
U.S. summer cooling degree days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. winter heating degree days	XLSX	PNG
U.S. census regions and census divisions	XLSX	PNG

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