Short-Term Energy Outlook

Electricity

EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants will rise from 34% in 2018 to 37% in 2019 and to 38% in 2020. EIA forecasts the share of U.S. electric generation from coal to average 25% in 2019 and 22% in 2020, down from 28% in 2018. EIA’s forecast nuclear share of U.S. generation remains at about 20% in 2019 and in 2020. Hydropower averages a 7% share of total U.S. generation in the forecast for 2019 and 2020, down from almost 8% in 2018. Wind, solar, and other nonhydropower renewables provided 9% of U.S. total utility-scale generation in 2018. EIA expects they will provide 10% in 2019 and 12% in 2020.

EIA expects U.S. electric power sector generation from renewables other than hydropower—principally wind and solar—to grow from 408 billion kilowatthours (kWh) in 2019 to 466 billion kWh in 2020. In EIA’s forecast, Texas accounts for 19% of the U.S. nonhydropower renewables generation in 2019 and 22% in 2020. California’s forecast share of nonhydropower renewables generation falls from 15% in 2019 to 14% in 2020. EIA expects that the Midwest and Central power regions will see shares in the 16% to 18% range for 2019 and 2020.

U.S. Electricity Summary
	2017	2018	2019projected	2020projected
^aConventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy. ^bIncludes electricity and heat generation ^cOther renewables includes biofuels production losses and co-products
Retail Prices	(cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector	12.89	12.89	12.99	13.11
Commercial Sector	10.66	10.66	10.62	10.61
Industrial Sector	6.88	6.93	6.80	6.83
Power Generation Fuel Costs	(dollars per million Btu)
Coal	2.06	2.06	2.07	2.10
Natural Gas	3.37	3.54	2.85	2.62
Residual Fuel Oil	11.01	12.95	12.38	11.92
Distillate Fuel Oil	13.27	16.13	15.30	15.72
Generation	(billion kWh per day)
Coal	3.304	3.141	2.740	2.367
Natural Gas	3.552	4.022	4.294	4.397
Nuclear	2.205	2.211	2.207	2.175
Conventional Hydroelectric	0.822	0.796	0.765	0.755
Renewable (non-hydroelectric)	1.058	1.153	1.199	1.360
Total Generation	11.053	11.446	11.309	11.165
Retail Sales	(billion kWh per day)
Residential Sector	3.78	4.01	3.95	3.90
Commercial Sector	3.71	3.77	3.74	3.70
Industrial Sector	2.70	2.61	2.64	2.59
Total Retail Sales	10.20	10.42	10.34	10.22
U.S. Renewables Consumption	(quadrillion Btu)
Geothermal	0.210	0.216	0.215	0.212
Hydropower^a	2.767	2.660	2.552	2.545
Solar	0.777	0.942	1.055	1.297
Waste Biomass	0.495	0.492	0.447	0.418
Wind	2.341	2.530	2.706	3.079
Wood Biomass	2.285	2.357	2.254	2.156
Electricity Subtotal^b	8.854	9.174	9.218	9.675
Biomass-based Diesel	0.280	0.260	0.287	0.316
Ethanol	1.192	1.188	1.187	1.190
Biofuels Subtotal	1.473	1.448	1.473	1.506
Other^c	0.821	0.824	0.798	0.808
Total	11.148	11.446	11.483	11.989

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