Electricity
- EIA forecasts 5.7% less electricity consumption in the United States in 2020, compared with 2019. The largest decline by consumption sector on a percentage basis occurs in the commercial sector, where EIA expects retail sales of electricity to fall by 9.1% this year. Forecast industrial retail electricity sales fall by 6.7%. EIA forecasts residential sector retail sales will decrease by 1.5% in 2020. Milder expected temperatures compared with 2019 reduce EIA’s forecast of electricity consumption for space heating and cooling, but that effect is partly offset by an assumed increase in electricity use by more people who are working from home. In 2021, EIA forecasts total U.S. electricity consumption will rise by 1.0%.
- EIA expects the share of U.S. utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants will increase from 37% in 2019 to 41% this year. In 2021, the forecast natural gas share declines to 36% in response to higher natural gas prices. Coal’s forecast share of electricity generation falls from 24% in 2019 to 17% in 2020 and then increases to 20% in 2021. Electricity generation from renewable energy sources rise from 17% in 2019 to 21% in 2020 and to 23% in 2021. The increase in the share from renewables is the result of expected additions to wind and solar generating capacity. Expected nuclear generation declines slightly in both 2020 and 2021, but its generation share rises from 20% in 2019 to an average of 22% in 2020 and 21% in 2021 because total U.S. generation falls by more than nuclear generation.
- EIA forecasts that renewable energy will be the fastest-growing source of electricity generation in 2020. EIA expects the electric power sector will add 23.2 gigawatts of new wind capacity and 12.6 gigawatts of utility-scale solar capacity in 2020. However, these future capacity additions are subject to a high degree of uncertainty, and EIA continues to monitor reported planned capacity builds.
