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Short-Term Energy and SUmmer Fuels Outlook

Release Date: April 11, 2017  |  Next Release Date: May 9, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Electricity

  • Total U.S. electricity generation from utility-scale plants averaged 11,140 gigawatthours per day in 2016. Forecast generation declines by 0.7% in 2017 and then grows by 1.7% in 2018.
  • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas to fall from an average of 34% in 2016 to 32% in both 2017 and 2018 as a result of higher expected natural gas prices. Coal's forecast generation share rises from 30% in 2016 to 31% in both 2017 and 2018. Nonhydropower renewables are forecast to provide 9% of electricity generation in 2017 and nearly 10% in 2018. The generation share of hydropower is forecast to be relatively unchanged at 7% between 2016 and 2018, and the nuclear share of generation declines from about 20% in 2016 and 2017 to 19% in 2018.
  • EIA expects growth in coal-fired electricity generation, primarily a result of higher natural gas prices, to contribute to a 4% increase in coal production in 2017 and an additional 2% increase in 2018. EIA estimates the delivered coal price averaged $2.11/MMBtu in 2016, a 5% decline from the 2015 price. Coal prices are forecast to increase in 2017 and 2018 to $2.17/MMBtu and $2.22/MMBtu, respectively.
U.S. Electricity Summary
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Retail Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector 12.65 12.55 12.87 13.18
Commercial Sector 10.64 10.37 10.53 10.68
Industrial Sector 6.91 6.75 6.92 7.04
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal 2.23 2.11 2.17 2.22
Natural Gas 3.23 2.88 3.61 3.99
Residual Fuel Oil 10.36 8.41 10.71 10.83
Distillate Fuel Oil 14.47 10.86 13.67 14.96
Generation (billion kWh per day)
Coal 3.705 3.388 3.427 3.508
Natural Gas 3.653 3.771 3.511 3.612
Nuclear 2.184 2.200 2.179 2.185
Conventional Hydroelectric 0.682 0.732 0.813 0.733
Renewable (non-hydroelectric) 0.809 0.938 1.009 1.084
Total Generation 11.172 11.144 11.064 11.252
Retail Sales (billion kWh per day)
Residential Sector 3.85 3.85 3.79 3.87
Commercial Sector 3.73 3.71 3.72 3.75
Industrial Sector 2.70 2.56 2.67 2.69
Total Retail Sales 10.30 10.14 10.20 10.33
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income 3.5 2.8 2.5 4.0
Manufacturing Production Index 1.1 0.3 2.0 2.5
Cooling Degree Days 14.6 4.8 -9.9 -3.5
Heating Degree Days -10.2 -5.2 1.4 7.8
Number of Households 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.3

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