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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: September 12, 2017  |  Next Release Date: October 11, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Electricity

  • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas to fall from an average of 34% in 2016 to about 31% in 2017 as a result of higher natural gas prices and increased generation from renewables and coal. Coal's forecast generation share rises from 30% last year to 31% in 2017. The projected generation shares for natural gas and coal in 2018 average 31% and 32%, respectively.
  • Wind electricity generating capacity at the end of 2016 was 82 gigawatts (GW). EIA expects wind capacity additions in the forecast to bring total wind capacity to 88 GW by the end of 2017 and to 96 GW by the end of 2018.
  • Total utility-scale solar electricity generating capacity at the end of 2016 was 22 GW. EIA expects solar capacity additions in the forecast will bring total utility-scale solar capacity to 29 GW by the end of 2017 and to 33 GW by the end of 2018.
U.S. Electricity Summary
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Retail Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector 12.65 12.55 13.01 13.39
Commercial Sector 10.64 10.37 10.58 10.70
Industrial Sector 6.91 6.75 6.99 7.17
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal 2.23 2.11 2.15 2.19
Natural Gas 3.23 2.88 3.47 3.82
Residual Fuel Oil 10.36 8.41 10.40 9.97
Distillate Fuel Oil 14.47 10.86 12.59 12.93
Generation (billion kWh per day)
Coal 3.705 3.388 3.427 3.577
Natural Gas 3.653 3.771 3.384 3.528
Nuclear 2.184 2.200 2.169 2.181
Conventional Hydroelectric 0.682 0.732 0.817 0.735
Renewable (non-hydroelectric) 0.809 0.939 1.039 1.095
Total Generation 11.172 11.145 10.952 11.246
Retail Sales (billion kWh per day)
Residential Sector 3.85 3.85 3.75 3.91
Commercial Sector 3.73 3.71 3.71 3.76
Industrial Sector 2.70 2.56 2.60 2.64
Total Retail Sales 10.30 10.14 10.08 10.32
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income 4.2 1.4 1.7 3.5
Manufacturing Production Index 0.2 0.2 1.3 2.2
Cooling Degree Days 14.6 4.9 -11.0 4.5
Heating Degree Days -10.2 -5.1 0.7 7.5
Number of Households 1.0 0.9 0.6 1.2

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