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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: June 6, 2017  |  Next Release Date: July 11, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Electricity

  • Electricity generation from utility-scale plants was 11,150 gigawatthours per day in 2016. Warmer-than-normal temperatures in the first quarter of 2017 contributed to a 1.2% year-over-year decline in generation during that time. Forecast cooler summer temperatures compared with last year contribute to an expected 3.3% year-over-year decline in generation in the third quarter of 2017. Overall, forecast generation falls by 1.2% in 2017 and then grows by 1.6% in 2018.
  • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas to fall from an average of 34% in 2016 to less than 32% in both 2017 and 2018 as a result of higher expected natural gas prices. Coal's forecast generation share rises from 30% in 2016 to 31% in 2017 and 2018. Nonhydropower renewables are forecast to provide 9% of electricity generation in 2017 and nearly 10% in 2018. The generation share of hydropower is forecast to be nearly 8% in 2017 and 7% in 2018. The nuclear share of generation remains just under 20% in both 2017 and 2018.
U.S. Electricity Summary
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Retail Prices (cents per kilowatthour)
Residential Sector 12.65 12.55 13.04 13.48
Commercial Sector 10.64 10.37 10.53 10.70
Industrial Sector 6.91 6.75 7.01 7.18
Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)
Coal 2.23 2.11 2.16 2.22
Natural Gas 3.23 2.88 3.66 3.95
Residual Fuel Oil 10.36 8.41 10.52 10.58
Distillate Fuel Oil 14.47 10.86 13.56 14.84
Generation (billion kWh per day)
Coal 3.705 3.388 3.400 3.469
Natural Gas 3.653 3.771 3.455 3.564
Nuclear 2.184 2.200 2.167 2.185
Conventional Hydroelectric 0.682 0.732 0.833 0.747
Renewable (non-hydroelectric) 0.809 0.939 1.029 1.092
Total Generation 11.172 11.145 11.006 11.187
Retail Sales (billion kWh per day)
Residential Sector 3.85 3.85 3.76 3.86
Commercial Sector 3.73 3.71 3.73 3.75
Industrial Sector 2.70 2.56 2.61 2.63
Total Retail Sales 10.30 10.14 10.12 10.26
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Real DIsposable Personal Income 3.5 2.8 2.4 3.8
Manufacturing Production Index 0.2 0.2 1.7 2.3
Cooling Degree Days 14.5 4.6 -8.7 -4.5
Heating Degree Days -10.2 -5.1 0.4 8.5
Number of Households 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.2

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