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Short-Term Energy and SUmmer Fuels Outlook

Release Date: April 11, 2017  |  Next Release Date: May 9, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Coal

  • Total U.S. electricity generation from utility-scale plants averaged 11,140 gigawatthours per day in 2016. Forecast generation declines by 0.7% in 2017 and then grows by 1.7% in 2018.
  • EIA expects the share of U.S. total utility-scale electricity generation from natural gas to fall from an average of 34% in 2016 to 32% in both 2017 and 2018 as a result of higher expected natural gas prices. Coal's forecast generation share rises from 30% in 2016 to 31% in both 2017 and 2018. Nonhydropower renewables are forecast to provide 9% of electricity generation in 2017 and nearly 10% in 2018. The generation share of hydropower is forecast to be relatively unchanged at 7% between 2016 and 2018, and the nuclear share of generation declines from about 20% in 2016 and 2017 to 19% in 2018.
  • EIA expects growth in coal-fired electricity generation, primarily a result of higher natural gas prices, to contribute to a 4% increase in coal production in 2017 and an additional 2% increase in 2018. EIA estimates the delivered coal price averaged $2.11/MMBtu in 2016, a 5% decline from the 2015 price. Coal prices are forecast to increase in 2017 and 2018 to $2.17/MMBtu and $2.22/MMBtu, respectively.

U.S. Coal Summary
  2015 2016 2017 2018
Prices (dollars per million Btu)
Electric Power Sector 2.23 2.11 2.17 2.22
Supply (million short tons)
U.S. Coal Production 897.0 738.7 767.9 785.2
Imports 11.3 9.8 10.2 9.7
Exports 74.0 60.3 60.3 52.2
Consumption (million short tons)
Electric Power Sector 738.4 677.2 681.9 694.2
Other Sectors 59.7 52.6 54.8 56.6
Total Consumption 798.1 729.8 736.8 750.7
End of Period Inventories (million short tons)
Electric Power Sector 195.5 163.9 146.8 147.7
Total Inventories 238.4 206.0 187.7 190.0

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