‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy and SUmmer Fuels Outlook

Release Date: April 11, 2017  |  Next Release Date: May 9, 2017  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Notable Forecast Changes

  • EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 9.9 million b/d in 2018, which is 0.2 million b/d higher than in the previous forecast. The higher forecast reflects improvements to the rig methodology that captures increased cash flow as production increases. This change has the largest effect on production in the Permian and Niobrara regions. Continued development in the Thunder Horse South Expansion and the Gunflint projects that started in 2016 contribute to higher forecast production in the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico in 2017 and 2018.
  • West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices are forecast to average $2/b less than Brent prices in 2017–18. Previously, EIA expected average WTI prices to be $1/b below Brent prices. The forecast $2/b discount of WTI to Brent is based on the assumption that the marginal market supplied by both crude oils has moved from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Asia.


Table: Changes in Forecast from Last Month

Forecast Change Tables (PDF)

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