‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: December 12, 2017  |  Next Release Date: January 9, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Notable Forecast Changes

  • Beginning this month, EIA is using Oxford Economics as the data source for historical and forecast calculations of oil-weighted GDP in the STEO. Based on this new data source, global oil-weighted GDP growth was 2.7% in 2016, and it is expected to be 3.0% in 2017 and 3.2% in 2018. The previous STEO had GDP growth of 2.4%, 2.9%, and 3.0%, respectively, in those years.
  • EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 10.0 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2018, which is almost 0.1 million b/d higher than in the November STEO. The higher forecast production largely occurs during the second half of 2018 and reflects crude oil prices during November and December 2017 that have been higher than previously expected in the STEO. The higher prices contribute to higher forecast rig counts and production in the Lower 48 onshore regions after about a six-month lag.
  • In EIA's International Energy Statistics database, historical estimates for China's liquid fuels consumption in 2015 were revised higher by 360,000 b/d, increasing the baseline for the forecast. Because STEO did not change assumed growth rates for China from 2016-18, estimated consumption in those years was also revised higher by 360,000 b/d.
  • Historical electricity and renewable energy data for 2016 and 2017 have been updated to match the revisions published in the Electric Power Annual and Electric Power Monthly, but these changes have not significantly affected forecast values.

 

Table: Changes in Forecast from Last Month


Forecast Change Tables (PDF)

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