U.S. Energy Information Administration - EIA - Independent Statistics and Analysis
‹ Analysis & Projections
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Notable Forecast Changes
- EIA forecasts U.S. crude oil production to average 9.2 million b/d in 2017 and 9.7 million b/d in 2018, which are 0.2 million b/d higher both years than in the previous forecast. The higher forecast reflects improvements to forecasting methodology for rig efficiencies and an expectation of a more rapid near-term increase in drilling and completion activity, particularly in the Permian region. Additionally, a faster expected ramp-up in projects that started in 2016 (such as the Thunder Horse South Expansion) contributes to higher forecast production in the Federal Offshore Gulf of Mexico.
- EIA forecasts liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to average 1.8 Bcf/d in 2017 and 2.8 Bcf/d in 2018. This forecast is 0.4 Bcf/d and 0.2 Bcf/d higher for those years, respectively, than previously forecast. This revision is based on updates to commercial in-service dates and ramp-up periods of LNG facilities currently under construction.
- EIA forecasts the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $3.03/MMBtu in 2017 and $3.45/MMBtu in 2018. These forecasts are 40 cents/MMBtu and 25 cents/MMBtu lower, respectively, than expected in last month's STEO. The lower price forecast reflects mild winter temperatures that have reduced natural gas use for space heating, which has contributed to natural gas inventory levels being higher than previously expected for the end of February.
- For more information, For more information, see the detailed STEO table of forecast changes.