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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: July 9, 2019  |  Next Release Date: August 6, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

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Natural Gas

Prices: The front-month natural gas futures contract for delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $2.29 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on July 3, a decrease of 11 cents/MMBtu from June 3 (Figure 4). EIA estimates that U.S. natural gas production reached record levels again in May and June 2019, contributing to several weeks of higher-than-average injections into natural gas storage. EIA estimates that working natural gas inventories surpassed 2.4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) at the end of June 2019, 6% lower than the five-year (2014–18) average. This difference to the five-year average is the smallest since November 2017, which has contributed to the front-month natural gas futures price declining to the lowest level in more than three years.

Figure 4: Crude oil and Emerging Markets Currency Index

U.S. Natural Gas Summary
  2017201820192020
Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot 3.103.272.722.87
Residential Sector 10.8610.4910.5310.73
Commercial Sector 7.867.827.697.72
Industrial Sector 4.104.203.923.97
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production 79.9989.6998.39100.16
Dry Gas Production 74.7783.3991.3592.79
Pipeline Imports 8.127.707.297.25
LNG Imports 0.210.210.200.22
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector 12.0913.6313.6813.51
Commercial Sector 8.679.529.729.29
Industrial Sector 21.7822.7023.2623.80
Electric Power Sector 25.3929.1130.2229.98
Total Consumption 74.3282.0784.5984.54
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days -1.311.70.2-2.8
Cooling Degree Days -8.311.0-13.70.7
Commercial Employment 1.71.61.81.3
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production 3.32.60.20.8
Charts  
Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices and Confidence Intervals XLSX
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Probabilities XLSX

Other Resources

Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty documentation
(Adobe PDF file)

Henry Hub natural gas price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals
January 2017 - Current Month
(Adobe PDF file)
January 2015 - December 2016
(Adobe PDF file)
January 2013 - December 2014
(Adobe PDF file)
January 2011 - December 2012
(Adobe PDF file)
January 2009 - December 2010
(Adobe PDF file)
January 2007 - December 2008
(Adobe PDF file)

About the Short-Term Energy Outlook

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