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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: July 9, 2019  |  Next Release Date: August 6, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Natural Gas

Prices: The front-month natural gas futures contract for delivery at the Henry Hub settled at $2.29 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) on July 3, a decrease of 11 cents/MMBtu from June 3 (Figure 4). EIA estimates that U.S. natural gas production reached record levels again in May and June 2019, contributing to several weeks of higher-than-average injections into natural gas storage. EIA estimates that working natural gas inventories surpassed 2.4 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) at the end of June 2019, 6% lower than the five-year (2014–18) average. This difference to the five-year average is the smallest since November 2017, which has contributed to the front-month natural gas futures price declining to the lowest level in more than three years.

Figure 4: Crude oil and Emerging Markets Currency Index

U.S. Natural Gas Summary
  2017201820192020
Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet)
Henry Hub Spot 3.103.272.722.87
Residential Sector 10.8610.4910.5310.73
Commercial Sector 7.867.827.697.72
Industrial Sector 4.104.203.923.97
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Marketed Production 79.9989.6998.39100.16
Dry Gas Production 74.7783.3991.3592.79
Pipeline Imports 8.127.707.297.25
LNG Imports 0.210.210.200.22
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)
Residential Sector 12.0913.6313.6813.51
Commercial Sector 8.679.529.729.29
Industrial Sector 21.7822.7023.2623.80
Electric Power Sector 25.3929.1130.2229.98
Total Consumption 74.3282.0784.5984.54
Primary Assumptions (percent change from previous year)
Heating Degree Days -1.311.70.2-2.8
Cooling Degree Days -8.311.0-13.70.7
Commercial Employment 1.71.61.81.3
Natural-gas-weighted Industrial Production 3.32.60.20.8