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‹ Analysis & Projections

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: July 7, 2021  |  Forecast Completed: July 1, 2021  |  Next Release Date: August 10, 2021  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Crude Oil

Prices: The front-month futures price for Brent crude oil settled at $75.84 per barrel (b) on July 1, 2021, up $5.59/b from $70.25/b on June 1. The front-month futures price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for delivery at Cushing, Oklahoma, increased by $7.51/b during the same period, settling at $75.23/b on July 1 (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Crude oil-front-month futures prices

Crude oil prices continued to increase steadily in June. On June 25, the Brent price closed at a monthly high of $76.18/b, the highest closing price since October 2018. The July 1 WTI price of $75.23/b was also the highest closing price for WTI since October 2018. The increase in WTI prices outpaced Brent prices through much of the month, resulting in a narrowing of the Brent–WTI spread to as low as $0.61/b on July 1. The persistently increasing crude oil prices reflect continuing increases in petroleum demand as the global economy continues to recover from the impacts of COVID-19. The rising prices also reflect ongoing constraints on crude oil supply as crude oil production remains relatively low compared with the more rapid pace of growing demand. In June, we estimate inventory withdrawals of global crude oil and other liquids totaled 1.1 million barrels per day (b/d), a decrease of 0.1 million b/d compared with inventory withdrawals in May.

Price Summary
  2019202020212022
aWest Texas Intermediate.
WTI Crude Oila
(dollars per barrel)
56.9939.1765.8562.97
Brent Crude Oil
(dollars per barrel)
64.3441.6968.7866.64
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2019202020212022
aForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
OPEC Production 34.6730.7132.1134.15
Non-OPEC Production 65.9863.4964.5667.66
Total World Production 100.6594.2096.67101.81
OECD Consumption 47.5441.9044.3945.98
Non-OECD Consumption 53.3650.4053.2455.37
Total World Consumption 100.9092.3097.63101.35
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Product 2.8-3.46.34.8
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Ratea 3.31.9-4.81.0