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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: July 9, 2019  |  Next Release Date: August 6, 2019  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

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Crude Oil

Prices: The front-month futures price for Brent crude oil settled at $63.82 per barrel (b) on July 3, 2019, an increase of $2.54/b from June 3. The front-month futures price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for delivery at Cushing, Oklahoma, increased by $4.09/b during the same period, settling at $57.34/b on July 3 (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Crude oil front-month futures prices

Concerns over conflict in the Middle East as well as large inventory declines in the United States likely put upward pressure on crude oil prices. Prices increased on June 20 following an Iranian attack on a U.S. military drone near the Strait of Hormuz, where, a week before, two oil tankers were attacked in the region. In addition to risks of crude oil supply disruption, members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), along with several non-OPEC countries, met in Vienna and agreed to extend their existing voluntary production cuts through March 2020. The outlook for global economic growth, however, continues to decline along with expectations for petroleum demand growth.

Price Summary
  2017201820192020
aWest Texas Intermediate.
WTI Crude Oila
(dollars per barrel) 		50.7965.0659.5863.00
Brent Crude Oil
(dollars per barrel) 		54.1571.1966.5167.00
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2017201820192020
aWeighted by oil consumption.
bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
OPEC Production 37.3737.2935.4634.76
Non-OPEC Production 60.7663.3865.6667.78
Total World Production 98.13100.67101.11102.55
OECD Consumption 47.2647.5347.5447.79
Non-OECD Consumption 51.2352.4053.4654.61
Total World Consumption 98.4999.93101.00102.40
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 3.13.02.22.7
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb -0.80.61.5-1.6
Charts  
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price Confidence Intervals XLSX
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Crude Oil Price Probabilities XLSX
Henry Hub Natural Gas Prices and Confidence Intervals XLSX
Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Probabilities XLSX

Other Resources

Energy Price Volatility and Forecast Uncertainty documentation
(Adobe PDF file)

West Texas Intermediate crude oil price and NYMEX 95% confidence intervals
January 2017 - Current Month
(Adobe PDF file)
January 2015 - December 2016
(Adobe PDF file)
January 2013 - December 2014
(Adobe PDF file)
January 2011 - December 2012
(Adobe PDF file)
January 2009 - December 2010
(Adobe PDF file)
January 2007 - December 2008
(Adobe PDF file)

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