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Short-Term Energy Outlook

Release Date: July 10, 2018  |  Next Release Date: August 7, 2018  |  Full Report    |   Text Only   |   All Tables   |   All Figures

Crude Oil

Prices: The front-month futures price for North Sea Brent crude oil settled at $77.39 per barrel (b) on July 5, an increase of 60 cents/b from June 1. Front-month futures prices for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for delivery at Cushing, Oklahoma, increased by $7.13/b during the same period, settling at $72.94/b on July 5 (Figure 1). June Brent and WTI monthly average spot prices were $2.58/b and $2.11/b lower than the May average spot prices.

Figure 1: Crude oil front-month futures prices

Uncertainty related to the outcome of the June meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and several unplanned supply disruptions contributed to increased crude oil price volatility and higher prices in recent weeks. On June 22–23, OPEC and the non-OPEC countries subject to voluntary supply reductions agreed to increase crude oil production back to the target levels. The surplus production reductions were primarily the result of accelerated declines in Venezuela. Uncertainty also remains as to when and how much of Iran’s crude oil production and exports could decline because of the U.S. withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). An oil sands outage in Alberta, Canada, could last through the end of July, removing about 350,000 barrels per day (b/d) of production from the market. In addition, conflict in Libya led to disruptions at crude oil export and storage facilities and could have an indefinite effect on Libyan crude oil production going forward. Global unplanned supply outages totaled 2 million b/d in June, the highest level since May 2017.

Price Summary
  2016201720182019
aWest Texas Intermediate.
WTI Crude Oila
(dollars per barrel)
43.3350.7965.9562.04
Brent Crude Oil
(dollars per barrel)
43.7454.1571.8068.74
Global Petroleum and Other Liquids
  2016201720182019
aWeighted by oil consumption.
bForeign currency per U.S. dollar.
Supply & Consumption (million barrels per day)
OPEC Production 39.2339.2838.8338.95
Non-OPEC Production 57.9558.7361.3363.60
Total World Production 97.1898.01100.16102.54
OECD Consumption 46.7447.1947.6648.11
Non-OECD Consumption 50.1651.2952.5453.80
Total World Consumption 96.9098.48100.20101.91
Primary Assumptions (percent change from prior year)
World Real Gross Domestic Producta 2.83.23.33.1
Real U.S. Dollar Exchange Rateb 2.3-0.8-1.2-1.1