‹ Analysis & Projections
Annual Energy Outlook 2012
Release Date: June 25, 2012 | Next Early Release Date: December 5, 2012 | Report Number: DOE/EIA-0383(2012)
| Assumptions | Integrated 2011 Deand Technology | Integraged High Demand Technologya | Integrated Buildings Best Available Demand Technologya |
|---|---|---|---|
| End-use equipment | Limited to technology menu available in 2011. Promulgated standards still take effect. | Earlier availability, lower cost, and/ or higher efficiencies for advanced equipment. | Purchases limited to highest available efficiency for each technology class, regardless of cost. |
| Hurdle rates | Same as Reference case distribution; varies by end-use technology. | All energy efficiency investments evaluated at 7-percent real interest rate. |
All energy efficiency investments evaluated at 7-percent real interest rate |
| Building shells | Fixed at 2011 levels. | New buildings meet ENERGY STAR specifications after 2016. Efficiency improvement for existing buildings is 50 percent greater than in the Reference case | New buildings meet most efficient specifications. Efficiency improvement for existing buildings is 100 percent greater than in the Reference case. |
| Distributed and combined heat and power generation |
No improvement in technology cost or performance after 2011. Learning rates same as in the Reference case. | PV and wind costs based on Advanced Case in EIA Technology reports.b Learning rates adjusted for all technologies. | PV and wind costs reduced by twice the difference between the Reference and High Technology costs. Learning rates adjusted for all technologies. |
| Personal computers | ENERGY STAR sales and enabling rates; LCD and laptop shares fixed at 2011 values. | ENERGY STAR sales and enabling rates. LCD and laptop shares higher than in the Reference case. | ENERGY STAR sales and enabling rates. LCD share approaches 100 percent. Laptop share higher than in the Reference case. |
| TVs, cable boxes, and satellite systems | Fixed at 2011 values. | Unit energy consumption (UEC) values are average of Reference and Best Available Demand Technology cases. |
Per-unit consumption levels reduced to ENERGY STAR specifications. |
| Miscellaneous electricity end uses |
Unit energy consumption (UEC) values fixed at 2011 values. |
Most efficient equipment selected after 2014. |
Most efficient equipment selected in all years. |
| aAll changes from the Reference case start in 2012 unless otherwise stated. b U.S. Energy Information Administration, Photovoltaic (PV) Costs and Performance Characteristics for Residential and Commercial Applications, Final Report (August 2010), and The Cost and Performance of Distributed Wind Turbines, 2010-2035, Final Report (August 2010). |
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