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Natural Gas Weekly Update

for week ending November 6, 2024   |  Release date:  November 7, 2024   |  Next release:  November 14, 2024   |   Previous weeks

JUMP TO: Prices | Supply and Demand | Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) | Rig Count | Other Market Drivers | Storage

Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

(For the week ending Wednesday, November 6, 2024)

Prices

  • Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price fell 14 cents from $1.94 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.80/MMBtu yesterday.
  • Henry Hub futures price: The price of the December 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 10 cents, from $2.845/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.747/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging December 2024 through November 2025 futures contracts declined 7 cents to $2.965/MMBtu.
  • Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot prices fell at most major pricing locations this report week (Wednesday, October 30 to Wednesday, November 6). Price changes ranged from a decrease of $2.57 at the Waha Hub to an increase of 25 cents at SoCal Citygate.
    • Prices decreased in the Northeast this report week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price decreased 15 cents from $1.80/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.65/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transco Zone 6 NY trading point for New York City, the price decreased 18 cents from $1.73/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.55/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the New York-Central Park Area rose 4°F this report week, 9°F higher than normal for this time of year, which led to 49 fewer heating degree days (HDDs) than normal. The price at Eastern Gas South, located near Appalachian Basin production activities, decreased 13 cents from $1.60/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.47/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Pittsburgh Area rose 6°F on the week to 60°F, 13°F above normal, leading to 45 HDDs, 82 fewer HDDs than normal. Natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sector in Appalachia fell 26% (0.6 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) from the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
    • The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, decreased $2.57 from $0.11/MMBtu last Wednesday to -$2.46/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha price has been negative since last Thursday and reached an intraweek low of -$3.26/MMBtu on Monday. End-of-year inspections of the Permian Highway Pipeline, which transports natural gas from West Texas to the Texas Gulf Coast, reduced takeaway capacity by approximately 44% (1.2 Bcf/d) between November 5 and November 9. Additionally, El Paso Natural Gas Company declared force majeure on a segment of Line 1600 downstream of its Florida B compressor station in New Mexico between Tuesday and Wednesday. The Waha price traded $4.26 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday when it traded $1.83 below the Henry Hub price.
    • Price changes were mixed in California this report week. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California fell $1.81/MMBtu, from $4.64/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.83/MMBtu yesterday. The price at Malin, Oregon, the northern delivery point into the PG&E service territory, fell 31 cents from $2.43/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.12/MMBtu yesterday. Total natural gas consumption in California was essentially unchanged (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) from the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California rose 25 cents from $2.38/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.63/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Riverside Area, inland from Los Angeles, averaged 61°F this report week, 7°F lower than last week, resulting in 28 HDDs, 20 more HDDs than last week and 9 HDDs more than normal.
    • At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price fell 56 cents from $2.24/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.68/MMBtu yesterday. The average temperature in the Seattle City Area fell 2°F from last report week, leading to 106 HDDs, 6 fewer HDDs than normal. Total natural gas consumption in the Pacific Northwest rose 6% (0.1 Bcf/d) on the week. However, natural gas imports from Canada into the Pacific Northwest increased 8% (0.3 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.

    Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

  • International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices decreased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased 17 cents to a weekly average of $13.52/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands decreased 66 cents to a weekly average of $12.79/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending November 8, 2023), the prices were $17.46/MMBtu in East Asia and $14.63/MMBtu at TTF.
  • Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 6 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.52/MMBtu for the week ending November 6. Ethane prices fell 6% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel decreased 15%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 10%. The ethylene spot price rose 1% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane increased 4%. Propane prices increased 1%, while Brent crude oil prices increased 2% week over week, widening the propane discount to crude oil by 2% for the week. Normal butane and isobutane prices each rose 2% and natural gasoline prices rose 3%.
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Supply and Demand

  • Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas fell by 1.1% (1.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 1.3% (1.4 Bcf/d) to average 101.8 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada increased by 2.2% (0.1 Bcf/d) from last week.
  • Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 2.7% (2.0 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation rose by 2.1% (0.7 Bcf/d) week over week. Consumption in the industrial sector increased by 0.9% (0.2 Bcf/d) and in the residential and commercial sector by 6.3% (1.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 5.7% (0.3 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 12.7 Bcf/d, or 0.8 Bcf/d lower than last week.
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Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

  • Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals decreased 0.8 Bcf/d from last week to 12.7 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 1.0% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to 7.8 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas fell 16.9% (0.7 Bcf/d) to 3.6 Bcf/d. Freeport LNG reported outages on all three trains on November 1 due to an incoming power feed interruption. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d.
  • Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-three LNG vessels (six from Sabine Pass, five from Corpus Christi, four from Cameron, three from Freeport, two each from Calcasieu Pass and Cove Point, and one from Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 87 Bcf departed the United States between October 31 and November 6, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.
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Rig Count

  • According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, October 29, the natural gas rig count increased by 1 rig from a week ago to 102 rigs. The Barnett and Marcellus each added one rig, and one rig was added among unidentified producing regions. The Haynesville and Eagle Ford each dropped one rig. The number of oil-directed rigs decreased by 1 rig from a week ago to 479 rigs. The Haynesville and Williston each added one rig, the Permian dropped one rig, and two rigs were dropped among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 4 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 585 rigs, 33 fewer rigs than a year ago.
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Storage

  • Net injections into storage totaled 69 Bcf for the week ending November 1, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 32 Bcf and last year's net injections of 19 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,932 Bcf, which is 215 Bcf (6%) more than the five-year average and 157 Bcf (4%) more than last year at this time.
  • According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 45 Bcf to 72 Bcf, with a median estimate of 65 Bcf.
More storage data and analysis can be found on the Natural Gas Storage Dashboard and the Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report.

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See also:

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Natural gas spot prices
Spot Prices ($/MMBtu)
Thu,
31-Oct
Fri,
01-Nov
Mon,
04-Nov
Tue,
05-Nov
Wed,
06-Nov
Henry Hub
1.87
1.48
1.37
1.65
1.80
New York
1.47
1.17
1.19
1.50
1.55
Chicago
1.70
1.16
1.15
1.51
1.73
Cal. Comp. Avg.*
2.32
1.28
1.38
1.88
2.42
*Avg. of NGI's reported prices for: Malin, PG&E Citygate, and Southern California Border Avg.
Data Source: NGI's Daily Gas Price Index
Natural gas futures prices
Natural gas liquids spot prices


U.S. natural gas supply - Gas Week: (10/31/24 - 11/6/24)
Average daily values (billion cubic feet)
this week
last week
last year
Marketed production
115.8
117.2
118.0
Dry production
101.8
103.2
104.3
Net Canada imports
5.9
5.8
5.5
LNG pipeline deliveries
0.1
0.1
0.1
Total supply
107.8
109.1
109.9

Data source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
Note: This table reflects any data revisions that may have occurred since the previous week's posting. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline deliveries represent natural gas sendout from LNG import terminals.

U.S. natural gas consumption - Gas Week: (10/31/24 - 11/6/24)
Average daily values (billion cubic feet)
this week
last week
last year
U.S. consumption
76.0
74.0
80.7
    Power
35.0
34.3
31.9
    Industrial
23.0
22.8
24.3
    Residential/commercial
18.0
16.9
24.5
Mexico exports
5.8
6.2
5.9
Pipeline fuel use/losses
6.9
6.8
7.3
LNG pipeline receipts
12.7
13.5
14.2
Total demand
101.4
100.4
108.1

Data source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
Note: This table reflects any data revisions that may have occurred since the previous week's posting. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) pipeline receipts represent pipeline deliveries to LNG export terminals.

Natural gas supply


Weekly natural gas rig count and average Henry Hub
Rigs
Tue, October 29, 2024
Change from
 
last week
last year
Oil rigs
479
-0.2%
-3.4%
Natural gas rigs
102
1.0%
-13.6%
Note: Excludes any miscellaneous rigs
Rig numbers by type
Tue, October 29, 2024
Change from
 
last week
last year
Vertical
18
0.0%
20.0%
Horizontal
517
0.8%
-5.8%
Directional
50
-7.4%
-7.4%
Data source: Baker Hughes Company


Working gas in underground storage
Stocks
billion cubic feet (Bcf)
Region
2024-11-01
2024-10-25
change
East
934
919
15
Midwest
1,130
1,109
21
Mountain
290
291
-1
Pacific
310
305
5
South Central
1,267 
1,240
27
Total
3,932 
3,863
69

Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.
Working gas in underground storage
Historical comparisons
Year ago
11/1/23
5-year average
2019-2023
Region
Stocks (Bcf)
% change
Stocks (Bcf)
% change
East
924
1.1
912
2.4
Midwest
1,104
2.4
1,093
3.4
Mountain
254
14.2
224
29.5
Pacific
284
9.2
280
10.7
South Central
1,208
4.9
1,208
4.9
Total
3,775
4.2
3,717
5.8
Data source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Form EIA-912, Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report
Note: Totals may not equal sum of components because of independent rounding.


Temperature – heating & cooling degree days (week ending Oct 31)
 
HDDs
CDDs
Region
Current total
Deviation from normal
Deviation from last year
Current total
Deviation from normal
Deviation from last year
New England
112
-14
26
0
0
-1
Middle Atlantic
94
-22
9
0
0
-1
E N Central
78
-49
-51
3
2
3
W N Central
82
-51
-109
4
3
2
South Atlantic
45
-26
5
22
4
-3
E S Central
24
-47
-36
13
10
0
W S Central
4
-32
-62
54
37
27
Mountain
111
-12
-55
7
2
4
Pacific
53
0
-8
1
-2
1
United States
67
-29
-32
12
6
3
Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Note: HDDs=heating degree days; CDDs=cooling degree days

   Average temperature (°F)


   7-day mean ending Oct 31, 2024

Mean Temperature (F) 7-Day Mean ending Oct 31, 2024

        Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

  Deviation between average and normal temperature (°F)


   7-day mean ending Oct 31, 2024

Mean Temperature Anomaly (F) 7-Day Mean ending Oct 31, 2024

        Data source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

 

Monthly U.S. dry shale natural gas production by formation is available in the Short-Term Energy Outlook.