Natural Gas

Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

Prices

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price rose 3 cents from $1.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.94/MMBtu yesterday.
• Henry Hub futures price: The November 2024 NYMEX contract expired Tuesday at $2.346/MMBtu, up slighlty from last Wednesday. The December 2024 NYMEX contract price decreased to $2.845/MMBtu, down 6 cents from last Wednesday to yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging December 2024 through November 2025 futures contracts declined 3 cents to $3.038/MMBtu.
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot price changes were mixed this report week (Wednesday, October 23 to Wednesday, October 30). Price changes ranged from a decrease of 12 cents at Eastern Gas South to an increase of $1.63 at PG&E Citygate.
• Prices decreased in the Northeast this report week. At the Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, the price fell 10 cents from $1.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $1.80/MMBtu yesterday. At the Transco Zone 6 NY trading point for New York City, the price decreased 10 cents from $1.83/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.73/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the New York-Central Park Area rose 16°F from Sunday to yesterday and averaged 57°F for the week, 3°F higher than normal for this time of year, resulting in 23 fewer heating degree days (HDDs) than normal. The price at Eastern Gas South, located near Appalachian Basin production activities, decreased 12 cents from $1.72/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.60/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas production in Appalachia increased by 2% (0.5 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]) this report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
• In California, price changes were mixed this report week. The price at PG&E Citygate in Northern California, which is among the highest-priced markets in North America, rose $1.63 from $3.01/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.64/MMBtu yesterday. Maintenance on the Redwood Path of PG&E’s California Gas Transmission reduced available capacity by 19% from October 9 to October 31. Temperatures in the Sacramento Area averaged 60° F during the report week, 4° F less than last week, resulting in 26 more HDDs. Natural gas consumption in California increased by 8% (0.4 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 8 cents from $2.46/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.38/MMBtu yesterday. Temperatures in the Riverside Area averaged 68°F this report week, 3°F lower than last week, resulting in 30 cooling degree days, 12 less than last week.
• At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price rose 23 cents from $2.01/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.24/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sector in the Pacific Northwest rose 20% (0.1 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, amid colder temperatures resulting in 7 more HDDs than last week in the Seattle Area.
• The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, increased 97 cents from -$0.86/MMBtu last Wednesday to $0.11/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha Hub price was in positive territory yesterday, but on Monday it settled at -$3.14/MMBtu, the twelfth lowest daily Waha Hub price recorded since 1995. Maintenance at the Plain Station throughput meter in Yoakum County, Texas, on the El Paso Natural Gas pipeline system, which moves natural gas westbound to the Desert Southwest, was completed on October 24 and throughput capacity increased by 0.5 Bcf/d.

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• International futures prices: International natural gas futures prices increased this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia increased 25 cents to a weekly average of $13.70/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands increased 70 cents to a weekly average of $13.45/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending November 1, 2023), the prices were $17.82/MMBtu in East Asia and $15.36/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 14 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.42/MMBtu for the week ending October 30. Ethane prices fell 4% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel increased 17%, narrowing the ethane premium to natural gas by 26%. The ethylene spot price was relatively unchanged week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane increased 2%. Propane prices increased 6%, while Brent crude oil prices decreased 2% week over week, narrowing the propane discount to crude oil by 17%. Normal butane and isobutane prices each rose 3%, and natural gasoline prices fell 1%.

Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 2.0% (2.1 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production grew by 1.7% (1.7 Bcf/d) to average 103.2 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada increased by 7.4% (0.4 Bcf/d) from last week.
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 5.9% (4.1 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumed for power generation rose by 6.4% (2.1 Bcf/d) week over week. Industrial sector consumption remained unchanged and consumption in the residential and commercial sector increased by 13.9% (2.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 0.7% (less than 0.1 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 13.5 Bcf/d, or 0.2 Bcf/d lower than last week.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals decreased 0.2 Bcf/d from last week to 13.5 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana decreased by 2.3% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 7.9 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas were essentially unchanged at 4.4 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast were essentially unchanged at 1.2 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-four LNG vessels (eight from Sabine Pass, five from Freeport, four each from Cameron and Corpus Christi, two from Calcasieu Pass, and one from Elba Island) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 89 Bcf departed the United States between October 24 and October 30, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, October 22, the natural gas rig count increased by 2 rigs from a week ago to 101 rigs. The Eagle Ford, Utica, and Barnett each added one rig, while the Marcellus dropped one rig. The number of oil-directed rigs decreased by 2 rigs from a week ago to 480 rigs. The Cana Woodford and the Eagle Ford each dropped one rig. The total rig count, which includes 4 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 585 rigs, 40 fewer rigs than a year ago.

Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 78 Bcf for the week ending October 25, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 67 Bcf and last year's net injections of 77 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,863 Bcf, which is 178 Bcf (5%) more than the five-year average and 107 Bcf (3%) more than last year at this time.
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 75 Bcf to 95 Bcf, with a median estimate of 82 Bcf.
• The average rate of injections into storage is 22% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 4.6 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 3,890 Bcf on October 31, which is 178 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.

See also:

• Natural Gas Analysis Reports
• Short-Term Energy Outlook