Overview of Natural Gas Data for 2003

 

Preliminary data for 2003 indicate that natural gas total supply and demand were down in 2003 by almost 5 percent compared to 2002.  Dry natural gas production in 2003 was 19,068 billion cubic feet (Bcf) compared with 18,964 Bcf in 2002.  The increase in the production level reflects the increased drilling for natural gas.  However, although natural gas well completions increased by 26 percent in 2003 compared with the previous year, dry natural gas production increased by only 0.5 percent.

 

Net imports went down in 2003 continuing the downward trend of 2002, which was the first decline since 1986.    Total net imports were lower in each month of 2003 compared with 2002.  Net imports in 2003 were 3,236 Bcf which is a decline of 263 Bcf from 2002 levels.  Total pipeline imports went down in 2003 almost 10 percent compared to 2002.  In contrast to pipeline imports, LNG imports more than doubled in 2003 from the 2002 levels.  The levels went up to 507 Bcf which is an increase of more than 277 Bcf or 121 percent.

 

Working gas in storage at the end of 2003 was 190 Bcf higher than the beginning-of-year level.  However during the year storage volumes fluctuated greatly.  The 2002-2003 heating season ended in March 2003 with an estimated 730 Bcf of working gas in underground storage, a record low level.  This was followed by a net refill that roughly matched the record high of 2402 Bcf in 2001.   Consequently working gas stocks at the start of the 2003-2004 winter were 2.6 percent above the previous 5-year average.

 

Prices in all natural gas sectors increased in 2003.  Residential and commercial prices both increased more than 20 percent from the previous year.  The industrial sector price increased more than 40 percent.

 

Total consumption in 2003 was lower than in 2002 by almost 5 percent, although consumption patterns varied among the sectors.  Residential consumption increased by more than 4 percent in 2003, reflecting the severely cold temperatures in the beginning of 2003.  Heating degree days during the first two months of 2003 were 15.7 percent higher than in the previous year.  Weather driven demand also caused an increase in commercial consumption.  Industrial consumption and electric power decreased 8 percent and 13 percent, respectively.

 

 

Supply Components (Bcf)

         2003

           2002

          % Change

Production

19,068

18,964

0.5

Supplemental Fuels

65

60

8.3

Net Imports

3,236

3,499

-7.5

    Imports

3,928

4,015

-2.2

    Exports

692

516

34.0

Net Inventory Change

-193

468

N/A

Balancing Item

-236

27

N/A

Total Supply

21,940

23,018

-4.7

 

Consumption

Components (Bcf)

 

      2003

 

         2002

 

        % Change

Lease, Plant, and Pipeline Fuel

1,757

1,781

-1.3

Residential Deliveries

5,107

4,890

4.4

Commercial Deliveries

3,140

3,103

1.2

Industrial Deliveries

6,993

7,557

-7.5

Electric Power Deliveries

4,929

5,672

-13.1

Vehicle Fuel

15

15

0.0

Total Consumption

21,940

23,018

-4.7

 

Price Series

      2003

2002

% Change

Wellhead Price

$4.98

$2.95

68.8

Import Price

$5.16

$3.15

63.8

Residential Sector

$9.51

$7.91

20.2

Commercial Sector

$8.26

$6.64

24.4

Industrial Sector

$5.78

$4.02

43.8

Electric Utilities

N/A

$3.77

N/A