Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook
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Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook

Natural Gas Summary from the Short-Term Energy Outlook:

EIA projects that natural gas prices will remain relatively high during the storage refill season (April through October) and the rest of 2004. Wellhead prices are expected to average $4.87 per MMBtu in April and May, $4.71 from June through October, and $5.12 for November and December (Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2004). Spot prices during the storage refill months will likely average $5.23 per MMBtu, virtually the same as the average price ($5.22) this past heating season. Overall in 2004, spot prices are expected to average $5.31 per MMBtu, slightly less than the 2003 price ($5.35), while wellhead prices will average about $4.90. In 2005, natural gas spot prices will likely average about $5.25 per MMBtu, under the assumption that domestic supply can continue to grow by about 1 percent per year. Total available supply (including imports and storage inventories) is expected to increase to 22.31 Tcf in 2004 compared with 21.78 Tcf in 2003. Storage stocks at the end of the traditional heating season (March 31) were about 6 percent less than the 5-year average but nearly 50 percent more than year-earlier levels.

Natural gas production is estimated to have increased by approximately 0.6 percent in 2003. Production is expected to continue to rise slightly through 2005, as natural gas well completions, which totaled an estimated 20,000 in 2003, continue to grow to between 22,000 and 23,000 wells per year over the next 2 years. Natural gas demand is expected to increase by about 2.4 percent in 2004, owing to expected growth in the economy and an overall increase in fuel oil prices relative to average natural gas prices. In 2005, demand is also expected to increase as the economy continues to expand, although the growth rate slows to 0.6 percent because of expected reductions in weather-related demand in the first quarter of 2005 relative to the first quarter of 2004 and relatively lower fuel oil prices.

Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, April 2004
	History			Projections
	Jan-04	Feb-04	Mar-04	Apr-04	May-04	Jun-04
PRICES ($/MMBtu)
Average Wellhead Price	5.38	5.01	4.84	4.91	4.82	4.77
Residential Price	9.26	9.29	9.38	9.70	10.50	11.42
Electric Utilities Price	6.31	5.04	4.31	5.15	4.93	4.99

SUPPLY (Trillion Cubic Feet)
Total Dry Gas Production	1.628	1.517	1.640	1.609	1.650	1.581
Net Imports	0.293	0.255	0.248	0.254	0.255	0.245
Imports	0.360	0.317	0.313	0.311	0.315	0.303
Exports	0.067	0.061	0.065	0.057	0.059	0.059
Suppl. Gaseous Fuels	0.007	0.006	0.006	0.005	0.006	0.006
Total New Supply	1.929	1.778	1.894	1.867	1.912	1.832

Working Gas in Storage
Opening	2.582	1.795	1.368	1.000	1.147	1.533
Closing	1.795	1.368	1.000	1.147	1.533	1.931
Net Storage Withdrawal	0.787	0.427	0.368	-0.147	-0.385	-0.398

Total Supply	2.715	2.205	2.262	1.720	1.526	1.434

Balancing Item	-0.123	0.255	-0.149	0.057	0.036	0.017

Total Primary Supply	2.593	2.460	2.113	1.777	1.563	1.451

DEMAND (Trillion Cubic Feet)
Lease & Plant Fuel	0.097	0.091	0.097	0.095	0.098	0.094
Pipeline Use	0.081	0.076	0.067	0.053	0.047	0.043
Delivered to Consumers	2.415	2.294	1.949	1.630	1.418	1.314
Residential	0.960	0.862	0.603	0.408	0.241	0.156
Commercial	0.502	0.475	0.371	0.269	0.188	0.145
Industrial	0.654	0.642	0.644	0.609	0.570	0.542
Electric Power	0.300	0.314	0.330	0.345	0.419	0.471
Total Demand	2.593	2.460	2.113	1.777	1.563	1.451

Source: Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, April 2004.

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Short-Term Natural Gas Market Outlook, April 2004