for week ending January 01, 2002 | Release date: January 02, 2002 | Previous weeks
Spot
prices in the Midwest and the East moved up most days during the holiday period
as cold weather blanketed much of the area. .(See Temperature Map) (See Deviation Map) (Temperature
map) (Temperature Deviation Map). Prices in Chicago moved close to $3.00 per MMBtu last week, while prices
in the New York City area approached $5.00 on the last day of the year. Daytime
temperatures early this week in the Northeast remained in the 20s and 30s from
Washington, DC to Boston. The National Weather Service is calling for the
wintry temperatures to continue through the end of the week in most areas in
the eastern two thirds of the country. On the NYMEX, the daily settlement price
for the futures contract for February delivery has declined in recent trading
as the higher-than-average storage levels continue to be the main contributor
to the current strong natural gas supply situation. An estimated 2,992 Bcf
remains in storage as of December 21, 2001. The spot price for West Texas
Intermediate (WTI) crude oil moved down in last week's trading and ended the
year at $19.96 per barrel or $3.44 per MMBtu on Monday.
Prices:
Spot prices at many major
markets in the eastern two thirds of the country reached their highest levels
thus far this heating season on December 31. Prices in New York City led the
way as expectations for a continuation of this past weekend's low temperatures
contributed to an almost $1.25 per MMBtu increase on Monday, with prices
approaching $5.00 per MMBtu at Transco Zone 6 for New York delivery. Prices for
delivery to other major Northeast metropolitan areas also moved up sharply,
gaining $0.48 to $0.72 per MMBtu during Monday's trading to reach a range of
around $3.75 to $4.15. Even with these sharp price increases, prices remain
well below last year's near record-setting daily prices of late December and
early January of over $10.00 per MMBtu at the Henry Hub and citygate prices of
$19.00 in Chicago and $39.00 in New York.
The year-on-year comparison
of NYMEX futures prices is even wider, as last year's February contract traded
for $9.775 per MMBtu on December 29, 2000, compared with this year's level of
only $2.570 on December 31, 2001. Furthermore, the futures contract for January
delivery closed on December 27, 2001, at $2.555 per MMBtu—almost $7.45 below
last year's record level of $9.98.
Spot Prices ($ per MMBtu) |
Mon. 12/24 |
Tues. 12/25 |
Wed. 12/26 |
Thurs. 12/27 |
Fri. 12/28 |
Mon. 12/31 |
Tues. 1/1 |
Henry Hub |
2.63 |
2.63 |
2.95 |
2.64 |
2.66 |
2.75 |
2.75 |
New York citygates |
3.03 |
3.03 |
3.81 |
3.34 |
3.69 |
4.93 |
4.93 |
Chicago citygate |
2.45 |
2.45 |
2.99 |
2.65 |
2.66 |
2.71 |
2.71 |
PG&E citygate |
2.73 |
2.73 |
2.99 |
2.69 |
2.49 |
2.66 |
2.66 |
So. Cal. Border Avg. |
2.61 |
2.61 |
2.85 |
2.56 |
2.49 |
2.60 |
2.60 |
Futures ($/MMBtu) |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
January delivery |
closed |
holiday |
2.911 |
2.555 |
Expired |
Expired |
Expired |
February delivery |
closed |
holiday |
2.937 |
2.619 |
2.774 |
2.570 |
holiday |
March delivery |
closed |
holiday |
2.917 |
2.630 |
2.746 |
2.560 |
holiday |
Source: NGI's
Daily Gas Price Index (http://intelligencepress.com) |
|
|
Storage:
According
to the American Gas Association (AGA), net storage withdrawals were 81 Bcf for
the week ended Friday, December 21. The total net withdrawal is just 58 percent
of the 6-year (1995-2000) average, and is less than half of the 175 Bcf
withdrawn during this week last year. Net withdrawals for both the East and
Producing regions for this week were the lowest in the 8-year history of AGA
data. As of December 21, natural gas stocks in all regions and the nation as a
whole exceeded their respective 6-year averages for this date by 10 percent or
more. For the Producing region, the surplus was over 46 percent, while for the
entire nation it was nearly 24 percent. With the exception of the West, the
surpluses over the 6-year averages have increased for 8 weeks in a row since
the week ended Friday, November 2. (See Storage Figure)
All Volumes
in BCF |
Current
Stocks (Fri,12/21) |
Estimated
6-Year (1995-2000) Average* |
Percent
Difference from 6 Year Average |
Net Change
from Last Week |
One-Week
Prior Stocks (Fri,12/14) |
|
East Region |
1,751 |
1,489 |
17.6% |
-53 |
1,804 |
|
West Region |
348 |
316 |
10.0% |
-12 |
360 |
|
Producing Region |
893 |
610 |
46.3% |
-16 |
909 |
|
Total Lower 48 |
2,992 |
2,415 |
23.9% |
-81 |
3,073 |
|
Note: net change data are estimates published by
AGA on Wednesday of each week. All
stock-level Figures are EIA estimates based on EIA monthly survey data and
weekly AGA net-change estimates. Column sums may differ from Totals because of independent rounding.
*Revised to incorporate revisions to EIA monthly survey data for various months
in 1999-2000. |
||||||
Summary:
The winter's first extensive
period of cold temperatures, especially in the populous Northeast, has seen
prices move up sharply at most citygate markets in the Eastern United States.
However, with storage levels that are close to 1 Tcf more than last year at
this time, current prices remain well below those seen last year on both the
spot and NYMEX futures markets.