Notes and Sources

1 The request letter from Chairman Waxman and Chairman Markey is provided in Appendix A.

2 The development of the updated Reference Case is described in a recent EIA report, An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook,  SR/OIAF/2009-03 (Washington, DC, April 2009), web site http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/stimulus/index.html.

3 Detailed descriptions of the assumptions used and changes made to the National Energy Modeling System to represent the provisions of the American Clean Energy and Security Act are provided in Appendix B..

4 This case was originally included in EIA’s April 2008 analysis of the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act (S. 2191) pursuant to a request from Senators Barrasso, Inhofe, and Voinovich.

5 This overall compliance level includes both the projected cumulative 24.6–BMT-difference between the Reference Case projection and the ACESA cap on covered CO2-equivalent emissions between 2012 and 2030 and the accumulation of an additional 13 BMT in allowances that are banked for use in post-2030 compliance. 

6 The average electricity price in the No International/Limited case in 2020 is 10.7 cents per kilowatthour.

7 The request letter from Chairman Waxman and Chairman Markey is provided in Appendix A.

8 Detailed discussion of the changes made to the NEMS to represent ACESA is provided in Appendix B.

9 Energy Information Administration,  An Updated Annual Energy Outlook 2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook, SR/OIAF/2009-03 (Washington, DC, April 2009),  http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/stimulus/index.html.

10 Due to the Energy Information Administration’s limited disaggregation of the non-CO2 gases for modeling purposes, some non-CO2 gases are modeled as being covered beginning in 2012 rather than 2014.  As a result, the percentage of covered gases assumed before 2014 is about 2 percentage points higher than the 66-percent figure cited in ACESA Sec. 721. 

11See www.eia.gov/oiaf/service_rpts.htm.

12 The average electricity price in the No International/Limited case in 2020 is 10.7 cents per kilowatthour.

13 In this section, industry is defined as non-service output.  Industry includes manufacturing, agriculture, construction, and mining, which are the industries used by the NEMS industrial demand module.

14 See Appendix B for detailed methodology of incorporating these industrial output-based rebates.

15 Energy Information Administration, Energy Market and Economic Impacts of S. 2191, the Lieberman-Warner Climate Security Act of 2007, SR/OIAF(2008-01) (Washington, DC, April 2008), web site www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/s2191/index.html.

16 For the published AEO2009, EIA included as a side case an updated S. 2191 Case, called the “LW110” Case, with assumptions similar to the S. 2191 High Cost Case from the 2008 Service Report.  The estimated 2030 allowance price in the AEO2009 LW110 was $74 per metric ton, compared to $80 allowance price in the original S. 2191 High Cost Case based on AEO2008.

17 Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2009, DOE/EIA-0383(2009)(Washington, DC, February 2009), web site www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html, and An Updated AEO2009 Reference Case Reflecting Provisions of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act and Recent Changes in the Economic Outlook,  DOE/EIA-SR-OIAF/2009-03 (Washington, DC, April 2009).

18 Each State was given a “score” from 1 to 5 and weighted by housing permits to calculate a Census division average.  The relative score for each State was derived from American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy (ACEEE), The State Energy Efficiency Scorecard for 2006, June 2007.

19 For more detail on the assumptions, see http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/stimulus/index.html.

20 Navigant Consulting Incorporated, U.S. Lighting Market Characterization, Volume I:  National Lighting Inventory and Energy Consumption Estimate, September 2002.