Introduction

1  Energy Information Administration, Potential Oil Production from the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge: Updated Assessment, SR/O&G/2000-02 (Washington, DC, May 2000) web site www.eia.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/analysis_publications/arctic_national_wildlife_refuge/html/summary.html.

2 The 1002 Area refers to the coastal plain of ANWR, which is roughly north of the Sadlerochit Mountains and west of the Aichilik River.

3  The mean probability estimate refers to a 1-in-2 chance of there being oil resources at least equal to the size of that estimate; the 95-percent probability estimate refers to a 19-in-20 chance of there being oil resources at least equal to the size of that estimate; and the 5-percent probability estimate refers to a 1-in-20 chance of there being oil resources at least equal to the size of that estimate.

4  Energy Information Administration, Annual Energy Outlook 2008, DOE/EIA-0383(2008) (Washington, DC, May 2008)web site www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html.

5  Energy Information Administration, Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, SR/OIAF/2004-04 (Washington, DC, March 2004) web site www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/ogp/pdf/sroiaf(2004)04.pdf.

Background

1 Technically recoverable resources are resources that can be produced using current technology.

2 U.S. Department of Interior, U.S. Geological Survey, The Oil and Gas Resource Potential of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge 1002 Area, Alaska, Open File Report 98-34, 1999;  U.S. Geological Survey, USGS Fact Sheet FS-028-01, April 2001; and, Oil and Gas Resources of the Arctic Alaska Petroleum Province, by David W. Houseknecht and Kenneth J. Bird, U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1732–A, 2005.

3 U.S. Department of Interior, Minerals Management Service, Assessment of Undiscovered Technically Recoverable Oil and Gas Resources of the Nation’s Outer Continental Shelf, 2006, MMS Fact Sheet RED-2006-01b, February, 2006; and U.S. Geological Survey, USGS National Assessment of Oil and Gas Resources Update, USGS website: http://certmapper.cr.usgs.gov/data/noga00/natl/tabular/2007/
summary_07.pdf, December 2007.

4 Energy Information Administration, Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, SR/OIAF/2004-04 (Washington, DC, March 2004) web site www.eia.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/ogp/pdf/sroiaf (2004)04.pdf.

5 Energy Information Administration, The National Energy Modeling System: An Overview, DOE/EIA-0581(2003) (Washington, DC, March 2003) web site www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview/index.html.

6 Alaska Department of Natural Resources, Division of Oil and Gas, 2002 Report: Tables & Graphs Edition, pages 1-27 and 2-4.

7 Ibid, pages 1-17 and 2-4.

8 The 13.5 billion barrels of Prudhoe Bay field oil represents the cumulative volume of oil expected to be produced from this field over its entire production life.  The amount of original-oil-in-place in Prudhoe Bay is estimated to be 25 billion barrels.  Source: U.S. Department of Energy, National Energy Technology Laboratory, Arctic Energy Office, Alaska North Slope Oil and Gas, A Promising Future or an Area in Decline? DOE/NETL-2007/1280, (Fairbanks, Alaska, August 2007), Table 3.113, page 3-123.

9 Ibid, page 3-124.

10 Energy Information Administration, Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380(2008/05) (Washington, DC, May 2008), Table 18, page 43.

11 The 1998 USGS ANWR assessment assumed an average recovery factor of 37 percent of the original-oil-in-place.  This recovery factor is based on primary (pressure-driven) and secondary (water-injection) recovery techniques, but does not included tertiary (enhanced oil recovery) techniques, which can increase oil recovery by an additional 5 to 15 percentage points.

12 Examples include the North Prudhoe and West Beach oil fields that are in close proximity to the Prudhoe Bay field.

13 Including Alaska.

14 American Petroleum Institute, Joint Association Survey on Drilling Costs, 2000 and 2005 editions (Washington, DC, December 2001 & April 2006), Table 2.12.

15 Ibid, Table 2.24.

16 The U.S. Minerals Management Service (MMS) estimates that approximately 23.6 billion barrels of undiscovered technically recoverable oil resources exist in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas off the North Slope and that approximately 19 billion barrels of oil would be economic to produce at $80 per barrel or less.  Source: U.S. Department of Interior, Minerals Management Service, Undiscovered Oil and Gas Resource, Alaska Federal Offshore, as of 2006 (Washington, DC, 2006).

17 World oil consumption is projected to be 117.6 millions barrels per day in 2030.  Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2007, DOE/EIA-0484(2007) (Washington, DC, May 2007), Table A5, page 88, web site www.eia.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

18 Low-sulfur, light crude oil, such as West Texas Intermediate, is one of the more common price benchmarks used for world oil prices.

19 The maximum volumetric reduction in imports occurs in 2027 and 2028 when ANWR oil production peaks across the three cases.

20 Petroleum News, TAPS Switches into the 21st century, Volume 12, Number 9, March 4, 2007, pages 9 – 10.

21 Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. web site www.alyeska-pipe.com/PipelineFacts/PipelineOperations.html.