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EIA Report on Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Energy           


Hurricane Impacts on the U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Markets


As of Thursday, November 10, 3:00 pm

Shut-in Status
Date
Shut-in Oil
(bbl/d)
% of Total
Federal GOM
Shut-in Gas
(mmcf/d)
% of Total
Federal GOM
 11/10/2005
736,279
46.7%
4,016
39.8%
 11/9/2005
737,136
46.8%
4,033
39.9%
 11/8/2005
738,617
44.9%
4,123
40.8%
 11/7/2005
773,097
49.0%
4,451
44.0%
 11/4/2005
780,633
49.5%
4,569
45.2%
 11/3/2005
790,610
50.2%
4,727
46.8%
 11/2/2005
957,978
60.8%
5,043
49.9%
 11/1/2005
1,000,092
63.5%
5,269
52.2%
 10/31/2005
1,015,859
64.5%
5,427
53.7%
 10/28/2005
1,017,551
64.6%
5,504
54.5%
 10/27/2005
1,022,313
64.9%
5,559
55.0%
source: Minerals Management Service

graph of shut-in oil & natural gas production comparison of hurricanes Katrina & Ivan
figure data

Prices
graph of oil and gas prices
figure data

graph of nymex futures for gasoline & deisel
figure data

NYMEX Futures Prices 11/10/2005 10/9/2005
change
Week Ago
11/3/2005
Year Ago
11/10/2004
  WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl)
57.80
58.93
-1.13
61.78
48.46
  Gasoline (c/gal)
150.68
155.13
-4.45
162.68
128.52
  Heating Oil (c/gal)
174.33
178.96
-4.63
183.36
140.29
  Natural Gas ($/MMBtu)
11.38
11.67
-0.29
11.69
7.68


Short-Term Energy Outlook

On November 8, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) which projects that total energy demand is likely to respond to higher prices and hurricane-related destruction by showing relatively flat growth between 2004 and 2005, compared with 1.5-percent growth between 2003 and 2004. Energy demand is expected to recover in 2006 at a rate of about 2 percent. Prices for crude oil, petroleum products, and natural gas are projected to remain high during the remainder of 2005 and through 2006 because of tight international supplies and hurricane-induced supply losses. The price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is expected to average $57 per barrel in 2005 and $64-$65 per barrel in 2006. Retail regular gasoline prices are expected to average $2.29 per gallon in 2005 and $2.43 in 2006. Henry Hub natural gas prices are expected to average $9.15 per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in 2005 and $9.00 per mcf in 2006. Recovery of production facilities and other infrastructure in the Gulf region is expected to continue, but it now appears unlikely that anything close to complete recovery will occur before the end of the second quarter of 2006. This extends the recovery period by about 3 months beyond what was assumed in the previous Outlook.

Petroleum
Refinery shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico region total 804,000 bbl/d as of November 9, 2005. Please consult the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability's Situation Report for specific information on the refineries.

According to EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending November 4 (released November 10), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 4.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 323.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels last week, putting them in the upper half of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories inched lower by 0.1 million barrels last week, and are at the lower end of the average range for this time of year. A decline in high-sulfur (heating oil) distillate fuel more than compensated for an increase in low-sulfur (diesel fuel) distillate fuel. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 11.6 million barrels last week, and are near the upper end of the average range for this time of year.

Natural Gas
According to EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending Friday, November 4 (released November 11), working gas in storage increased to 3,229 Bcf, which is 4 percent above the 5-year average inventory level. The net addition to storage was 61 Bcf, which is more than three times the 5-year average net injection of 17 Bcf and about 72 percent above the net injection of 35 Bcf during the report week last year. Reported working gas volumes for the week ended November 4, 2005 included reclassifications of 10 billion cubic feet from base gas to working gas.

Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged a number of natural gas processing facilities on the Gulf Coast. The loss has and will continue to delay recovery of natural gas production in the area. Even if platforms and pipelines are either unaffected or readily restored to service, the gas often can't flow to market without treatment. In 2003 (the latest year with complete data), almost three-fourths of total U.S. marketed gas production was processed prior to delivery to market. A number of processing plants in Louisiana and Texas, with capacities equal to or greater than 100 million cubic feet per day, are not active. These plants have an aggregate capacity of 7.35 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), and they had a total pre-hurricane flow volume of 4.28 Bcf/d. A number of non-operating plants with a total capacity of 0.90 Bcf/d are operational, but are not active owing to upstream or downstream infrastructure problems or supplies being unavailable. These plants had flowed 0.28 Bcf/d before the hurricanes. A number of the inactive plants are expected to be operating within 2 weeks. Based on updated data, the incremental available capacity at that time would be 2.30 Bcf/d with pre-hurricane flow of 1.06 Bcf/d. Based on updated company information, pre-hurricane flow volumes indicate that the average utilization of the non-operating plants was roughly 58 percent.

The Louisiana Office of Conservation is addressing the operating status of producing wells in a thirty-eight (38) parish region for information. As of November 10, the Office has received reports indicating 1,223.9 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of onshore and offshore (in State waters only) natural gas production has been restored, which is 54.8 percent of total production before the hurricanes. Overall, 2,629 oil and gas wells, or 44.2 percent of the wells in the region, reportedly remain shut-in. However, the Office has not received information on approximately 12.6 percent of the oil and gas wells in the region. The daily gas production capacity of the 38 parish region is estimated to be approximately 2,235 MMcf/d, based on the average production reported to the Office for the period January 2005 to May 2005.

 

Map of Hurricane Katrina's Path showing oil rigs & refineries.                                           Click to see larger version.
                                                map courtesy of iMapData Inc.

Gulf of Mexico Oil & Natural Gas Facts
Energy Information Administration
Data as of June 2005 unless otherwise noted.

Gulf of Mexico
Total U.S.
% from
Gulf of Mexico
Oil (million barrels per day)
  Federal Offshore Crude Oil Production (5/05)
1.576
5.494
28.7%
  Total Gulf Coast Region Refinery Capacity (as of 1/1/05) 
8.068
17.006
47.4%
  Total Gulf Coast Region Crude Oil Imports
6.490
10.753
60.4%
    - of which into ports in LA, MS and AL
2.524
10.753
23.5%
    - of which into LOOP
0.906
10.753
8.5%
Natural Gas (billion cubic feet per day)
  Federal Offshore Marketed Production (5/05)
10.1
50.58
20.0%

News & Recent Reports
DOE Office of Electricity Delivery & Energy Reliability hurricane situation reports
Department of Interior Minerals Management Service

Related EIA Data Releases
Weekly Petroleum Status Report Released after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern time) on Wednesdays except on holiday weeks (release delayed one day).
U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Prices Released after 5:00 p.m. (Eastern time) on Mondays except on holiday weeks (released on Tuesday).
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Released between 10:30 a.m. and 10:40 a.m., (Eastern time) on Thursdays.
Short Term Energy Outlook
Next release, December 6, 2005, 12:00 p.m. Noon (Eastern time).


References
Alabama Oil Profile
Alabama Natural Gas Summary
Louisiana Oil Profile
Louisiana Natural Gas Summary
Mississippi Oil Profile
Mississippi Natural Gas Summary
Texas Oil Profile
Texas Natural Gas Summary


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