|
As of Thursday, November 10, 3:00 pm
Shut-in Status
| Date |
Shut-in Oil
(bbl/d)
|
% of Total
Federal GOM
|
Shut-in Gas
(mmcf/d)
|
% of Total
Federal GOM |
| 11/10/2005 |
736,279
|
46.7%
|
4,016
|
39.8%
|
| 11/9/2005 |
737,136
|
46.8%
|
4,033
|
39.9%
|
| 11/8/2005 |
738,617
|
44.9%
|
4,123
|
40.8%
|
| 11/7/2005 |
773,097
|
49.0%
|
4,451
|
44.0%
|
| 11/4/2005 |
780,633
|
49.5%
|
4,569
|
45.2%
|
| 11/3/2005 |
790,610
|
50.2%
|
4,727
|
46.8%
|
| 11/2/2005 |
957,978
|
60.8%
|
5,043
|
49.9%
|
| 11/1/2005 |
1,000,092
|
63.5%
|
5,269
|
52.2%
|
| 10/31/2005 |
1,015,859
|
64.5%
|
5,427
|
53.7%
|
| 10/28/2005 |
1,017,551
|
64.6%
|
5,504
|
54.5%
|
| 10/27/2005 |
1,022,313
|
64.9%
|
5,559
|
55.0%
|
source: Minerals Management Service
figure
data
Prices
figure
data
figure
data
| NYMEX Futures Prices |
11/10/2005 |
10/9/2005 |
change
|
Week Ago
11/3/2005 |
Year
Ago
11/10/2004 |
| WTI Crude
Oil ($/Bbl) |
57.80
|
58.93
|
-1.13
|
61.78
|
48.46
|
| Gasoline
(c/gal) |
150.68
|
155.13
|
-4.45
|
162.68
|
128.52
|
| Heating Oil
(c/gal) |
174.33
|
178.96
|
-4.63
|
183.36
|
140.29
|
| Natural Gas
($/MMBtu) |
11.38
|
11.67
|
-0.29
|
11.69
|
7.68
|
Short-Term Energy Outlook
On November 8, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released
the monthly Short-Term
Energy Outlook (STEO) which projects that total energy demand
is likely to respond to higher prices and hurricane-related
destruction by showing relatively flat growth between 2004 and
2005, compared with 1.5-percent growth between 2003 and 2004.
Energy demand is expected to recover in 2006 at a rate of about
2 percent. Prices for crude oil, petroleum products, and natural
gas are projected to remain high during the remainder of 2005
and through 2006 because of tight international supplies and
hurricane-induced supply losses. The price of West Texas Intermediate
(WTI) crude oil is expected to average $57 per barrel in 2005
and $64-$65 per barrel in 2006. Retail regular gasoline prices
are expected to average $2.29 per gallon in 2005 and $2.43 in
2006. Henry Hub natural gas prices are expected to average $9.15
per thousand cubic feet (mcf) in 2005 and $9.00 per mcf in 2006.
Recovery of production facilities and other infrastructure in
the Gulf region is expected to continue, but it now appears
unlikely that anything close to complete recovery will occur
before the end of the second quarter of 2006. This extends the
recovery period by about 3 months beyond what was assumed in
the previous Outlook.
Petroleum
Refinery shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico region total 804,000
bbl/d as of November 9, 2005. Please consult the Office of Electricity
Delivery and Energy Reliability's Situation
Report for specific information on the refineries.
According to EIA's Weekly
Petroleum Status Report for the week ending November 4 (released
November 10), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding
those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) rose by 4.5 million
barrels from the previous week. At 323.6 million barrels, U.S.
crude oil inventories remain well above the upper end of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories
increased by 4.2 million barrels last week, putting them in
the upper half of the average range. Distillate fuel inventories
inched lower by 0.1 million barrels last week, and are at the
lower end of the average range for this time of year. A decline
in high-sulfur (heating oil) distillate fuel more than compensated
for an increase in low-sulfur (diesel fuel) distillate fuel.
Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 11.6 million
barrels last week, and are near the upper end of the average
range for this time of year.
Natural Gas
According to EIA's Weekly
Natural Gas Storage Report for the week ending Friday, November
4 (released November 11), working gas in storage increased to
3,229 Bcf, which is 4 percent above the 5-year average inventory
level. The net addition to storage was 61 Bcf, which is more
than three times the 5-year average net injection of 17 Bcf
and about 72 percent above the net injection of 35 Bcf during
the report week last year. Reported working gas volumes for
the week ended November 4, 2005 included reclassifications of
10 billion cubic feet from base gas to working gas.
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita damaged a number of natural gas
processing facilities on the Gulf Coast. The loss has and will
continue to delay recovery of natural gas production in the
area. Even if platforms and pipelines are either unaffected
or readily restored to service, the gas often can't flow to
market without treatment. In 2003 (the latest year with complete
data), almost three-fourths of total U.S. marketed gas production
was processed prior to delivery to market. A number of processing
plants in Louisiana and Texas, with capacities equal to or greater
than 100 million cubic feet per day, are not active. These plants
have an aggregate capacity of 7.35 billion cubic feet per day
(Bcf/d), and they had a total pre-hurricane flow volume of 4.28
Bcf/d. A number of non-operating plants with a total capacity
of 0.90 Bcf/d are operational, but are not active owing to upstream
or downstream infrastructure problems or supplies being unavailable.
These plants had flowed 0.28 Bcf/d before the hurricanes. A
number of the inactive plants are expected to be operating within
2 weeks. Based on updated data, the incremental available capacity
at that time would be 2.30 Bcf/d with pre-hurricane flow of
1.06 Bcf/d. Based on updated company information, pre-hurricane
flow volumes indicate that the average utilization of the non-operating
plants was roughly 58 percent.
The Louisiana
Office of Conservation is addressing the operating status
of producing wells in a thirty-eight (38) parish region for
information. As of November 10, the Office has received reports
indicating 1,223.9 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of onshore
and offshore (in State waters only) natural gas production has
been restored, which is 54.8 percent of total production before
the hurricanes. Overall, 2,629 oil and gas wells, or 44.2 percent
of the wells in the region, reportedly remain shut-in. However,
the Office has not received information on approximately 12.6
percent of the oil and gas wells in the region. The daily gas
production capacity of the 38 parish region is estimated to
be approximately 2,235 MMcf/d, based on the average production
reported to the Office for the period January 2005 to May 2005.
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