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Daily Report on Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Energy           


Hurricane Impacts on the U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Markets


As of Wednesday, October 12, 4:00 pm

Shut-in Status
Date
Shut-in Oil
(bbl/d)
% of Total
Federal GOM
Shut-in Gas
(mmcf/d)
% of Total
Federal GOM
 10/12/2005
1,046,462
66.4%
5,919
58.6%
 10/11/2005
1,062,530
67.4%
6,042
59.8%
  10/7/2005
1,162,913
73.8%
6,441
63.8%
  10/6/2005
1,202,364
76.3%
6,628
65.6%
  10/5/2005
1,299,928
82.5%
6,895
68.3%
  10/4/2005
1,349,617
85.6%
7,170
71.0%
  10/3/2005
1,391,926
88.3%
7,495
74.2%
  9/30/2005
1,467,577
93.1%
7,941
78.6%
  9/29/2005
1,478,780
93.8%
7,980
79.0%
  9/28/2005
1,511,715
96.8%
8,072
77.2%
source: Minerals Management Service

graph of shut-in oil & natural gas production comparison of hurricanes Katrina & Ivan
figure data

Prices
graph of oil and gas prices
figure data

graph of nymex futures for gasoline & deisel
figure data

NYMEX Futures Prices 10/12/2005 10/11/2005
change
Week Ago
10/5/2005
Year Ago
10/12/2004
  WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl)
64.12
63.53
+0.59
62.79
52.51
  Gasoline (c/gal)
182.76
183.32
-0.56
190.78
138.03
  Heating Oil (c/gal)
201.57
201.79
-0.22
201.48
145.45
  Natural Gas ($/MMBtu)
13.52
13.52
+0.00
14.18
6.64

On October 12, EIA released the October Short-Term Energy Outlook (includes the Winter Fuels Outlook). This winter, residential space-heating expenditures are projected to increase for all fuel types compared to year-ago levels. On average, households heating primarily with natural gas can expect to spend about $350 (48 percent) more this winter on fuel. Households heating primarily with heating oil can expect to pay, on average, $378 (32 percent) more this winter. Households heating primarily with propane can expect to pay, on average, $325 (30 percent) more this winter. Households heating primarily with electricity can expect, on average, to pay $38 (5 percent) more. These averages provide a broad guide to changes from last winter, but fuel expenditures for individual households are highly dependent on local weather conditions, the size and efficiency of individual homes and their heating equipment, and thermostat settings. Prices for petroleum and natural gas will remain high due to tight international supplies of crude and hurricane-induced supply losses.

Petroleum
As Hurricane Rita approached, 16 refineries along the Gulf Coast shut down as a precautionary measure and to allow employees to evacuate, and as today, 4 are completely shutdown. In sum, there are 3 refineries still shut down in the New Orleans area following Hurricane Katrina, 3 shut down in the Port Arthur and Lake Charles areas, and 1 shut down in the Houston/Texas City/Galveston refining area, amounting to a total of about 1.9 million barrels per day of refining capacity that is currently offline. This accounts for about 800,000 barrels per day of gasoline, nearly 500,000 barrels per day of distillate fuel, and nearly 200,000 barrels per day of jet fuel that is not being produced as long as these refineries remain shutdown. Please consult the Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability's Situation Report for specific information on the refineries.

Natural Gas
In an attempt to assess the effects of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita on oil and gas production, the Louisiana Office of Conservation is addressing the operating status of producing wells in a thirty-eight (38) parish region for information. As of October 12, the Office has received reports indicating 686.8 million cubic feet per day (MMcf/d) of onshore and offshore (in State waters only) natural gas production has been restored, which is 21.2 percent of total production. Overall, 2,756 oil and gas wells, or 46.3 percent of the wells in the region, reportedly remain shut-in. However, the Office has not received information on approximately 32.6 percent of the oil and gas wells in the region. The daily gas production capacity of the 38 parish region is estimated to be approximately 2,235 MMcf/d, based on the average production reported to the Office for the period January 2005 to May 2005.

Fifteen natural gas processing plants in Louisiana, with capacities equal to or greater than 100 million cubic feet per day, are not active. These plants have an aggregate capacity of 9.51 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), and they had a total pre-hurricane flow volume of 5.33 Bcf/d. A number of non-operating plants with a total capacity of 1.85 Bcf/d are operational, but are not active owing to upstream or downstream infrastructure problems or supplies being unavailable. These plants had flowed 0.7 Bcf/d before the hurricanes. A number of the inactive plants are expected to be operating within 4 weeks. Based on updated data, these plants have capacity of 2.12 Bcf/d and pre-hurricane flow of 1.10 Bcf/d. Based on updated company information, pre-hurricane flow volumes indicate that the average utilization of the non-operating plants was roughly 56 percent.

A unit of Williams announced that it is holding an expedited open season for up to 250 MMcf/d of transportation service on the Discovery pipeline system to provide an outlet for gas that is currently shut-in owing to damage to third-party facilities during Hurricane Katrina. Discovery pipeline has received approval from the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to construct a new receipt point at Texas Eastern Transmission's Larose compressor station in Lafourche Parish, La. The proposed in-service date is scheduled for mid-November.

 

Map of Hurricane Katrina's Path showing oil rigs & refineries.                                           Click to see larger version.
                                                map courtesy of iMapData Inc.

Gulf of Mexico Oil & Natural Gas Facts
Energy Information Administration
Data as of June 2005 unless otherwise noted.

Gulf of Mexico
Total U.S.
% from
Gulf of Mexico
Oil (million barrels per day)
  Federal Offshore Crude Oil Production (5/05)
1.576
5.494
28.7%
  Total Gulf Coast Region Refinery Capacity (as of 1/1/05) 
8.068
17.006
47.4%
  Total Gulf Coast Region Crude Oil Imports
6.490
10.753
60.4%
    - of which into ports in LA, MS and AL
2.524
10.753
23.5%
    - of which into LOOP
0.906
10.753
8.5%
Natural Gas (billion cubic feet per day)
  Federal Offshore Marketed Production (5/05)
10.1
50.58
20.0%

News & Recent Reports
DOE Office of Electricity Delivery & Energy Reliability hurricane situation reports
Department of Interior Minerals Management Service

Related EIA Data Releases
Weekly Petroleum Status Report Released after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern time) on Wednesdays except on holiday weeks (release delayed one day).
U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Prices Released after 5:00 p.m. (Eastern time) on Mondays except on holiday weeks (released on Tuesday).
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report Released between 10:30 a.m. and 10:40 a.m., (Eastern time) on Thursdays.
Short Term Energy Outlook
Next release, November 8, 2005, 12:00 p.m. Noon (Eastern time).


References
Alabama Oil Profile
Alabama Natural Gas Summary
Louisiana Oil Profile
Louisiana Natural Gas Summary
Mississippi Oil Profile
Mississippi Natural Gas Summary
Texas Oil Profile
Texas Natural Gas Summary


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