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EIA Report on Hurricane Impacts on U.S. Energy 


 As of Friday, September 12, 4:00 pm     See current        


U.S. Oil and Natural Gas Market Impacts


Prices
NYMEX Futures Prices
(for October delivery)

9/12/2008
Pre-Gustav 8/29/2008 change Week Ago
9/5/2008
Year Ago
9/12/2007
  WTI Crude Oil ($/Bbl)
101.18
115.46
-14.28
106.23
79.91
  Gasoline RBOB* (c/gal)
276.96
285.42
-8.46
268.61
201.60
  Heating Oil (c/gal)
293.91
319.19
-25.28
298.28
221.91
  Natural Gas ($/MMBtu)
7.37
7.94
-0.57
7.45
6.44
*RBOB = Reformulated Blendstock for Oxygenate Blending (RBOB), the base gasoline that needs to be blended with some type of oxygenate, now usually ethanol, to be turned into finished reformulated gasoline (RFG). Ethanol is not blended into the gasoline mixture until just before the gasoline is shipped to the retail stations.

Petroleum
As of 12:30 pm EDT (11:30 am CDT), September 12, the Minerals Management Service was reporting that nearly 1.3 million barrels per day (or about 95 percent) of the federal portion of the Gulf of Mexico’s crude oil production was shut-in.  As of 10:00 am EDT (9:00 am CDT), September 12, the Department of Energy reported that there are 13 refineries in Texas that are shut down ahead of Hurricane Ike.  These 13 refineries have a total capacity of nearly 3.6 million barrels per day, and represent about 1.4 million barrels per day of gasoline output and over 900,000 barrels per day of distillate fuel output, based on recent historical data.  All refineries shut down from Hurricane Gustav are either back up and running or in the process of restarting.  Additionally, the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port (LOOP) suspended all operations, both onshore and offshore as of September 11.  Major crude oil pipelines originating in Texas or Louisiana have shut down.  The Colonial product pipeline is reportedly partially shut down and the Plantation pipeline is running at reduced rates.  Both of these are major product pipelines going from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast.

With petroleum infrastructure shutdown prior to Hurricane Gustav returning to normal operations and without any reports of significant damage to any petroleum facilities, oil prices have remained well below pre-Hurricane Gustav levels.  Compared to prices before Hurricane Gustav, crude oil for October delivery settled over $14 per barrel lower, while gasoline (RBOB) and heating oil were over 8 cents and 25 cents per gallon lower, respectively, at the close of trading on Friday, September 12.  However, with Hurricane Ike now expected to make landfall shortly, spot prices have increased recently, especially for gasoline.  Over the last 2 days of trading, the RBOB October futures contract is up nearly 11 cents per gallon.  With a significant portion of refining capacity shut in, most focus will be on the refining sector as Hurricane Ike makes landfall.  Until an assessment can be made in determining the extent of damage, if any, to refineries, it is difficult to ascertain how high retail prices might rise in certain parts of the country in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike.

 

Natural Gas
As of 12:30 pm EDT (11:30 am CDT), September 12, the Minerals Management Service was reporting that about 7.0 billion cubic feet per day (or well over 90 percent) of the federal portion of the Gulf of Mexico’s natural gas production was shut-in.  The Department of Energy (DOE) reported that as of 10:00 am EDT (9:00 am CDT) September 12, there are multiple offshore natural gas pipelines that continue to experience gas flow reductions or complete shut-in of their systems due to Gustav.  As Hurricane Ike approaches the Gulf of Mexico, many pipelines have declared force majeure and have shut-in operations.  As of noon EDT (11:00 am CDT) September 12, 20 natural gas processing plants (with total capacity of about 10.5 Billion cubic feet per day) have shut down in advance of Hurricane Ike or remain shut down following Hurricane Gustav.



Also see:
Hurricane Situation Reports from DOE's Office of Electricity Delivery & Energy Reliability
STEO Hurricane Analysis (pdf)

 

 

Hurricane Ike’s Projected Path
as of 1400 EDT, September 12, 2008
maps courtesy of iMapData and Pennwell

Gulf of Mexico Oil & Natural Gas Facts
Energy Information Administration
Gulf of Mexico
Total U.S.
% from
Gulf of Mexico
Oil (million barrels per day)
  Federal Offshore Crude Oil Production (4/08)
1.35
5.16
26.15%
  Total Gulf Coast Region Refinery Capacity (as of 1/1/08) 
7.41
17.59
42.12%
Natural Gas (billion cubic feet per day as of 2007)
  Federal Offshore Marketed Production
7.67
NA
NA
  State Offshore Marketed Production
0.67
NA
NA
  Total
8.33
54.7
15.22%

State Energy Profiles
Louisiana
Mississippi
Texas



Archives
Hurricane Gustav & Ike
September 11, 2008 Report
September 10, 2008 Report
September 9, 2008 Report
September 8, 2008 Report
September 5, 2008 Report
September 4, 2008 Report
September 3, 2008 Report
September 2, 2008 Report
September 1, 2008 Report

Previous EIA Hurricane Reports