Meeting of the American Statistical Association (ASA)

Committee on Energy Statistics

with the

Energy Information Administration (EIA)

April 28 and 29, 2005

Washington, D.C.

Note: All sessions are in Room 8E-089 unless otherwise posted in the break-out box.

Thursday, April 28, 2005

8:30 a.m. Open Meeting, Nicolas Hengartner, ASA Committee Chair (Newly Appointed)

8:35 a.m. Greetings and Remarks, Guy Caruso, Administrator, Energy Information Administration (EIA)

8:55 a.m. Updates for the Committee since the fall 2004, Meeting, Nancy Kirkendall, Director, Statistics and Methods Group (SMG), EIA

9:10 a.m. Regionalizing the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Forecast: Discussion of key features of the regional STEO model. Margot Anderson, Director, Energy Markets and End Use, EIA

9:45 a.m. STEO Performance Indicators: Diagnostics and Forecast Errors: Discussion of diagnostic tools for gauging forecast accuracy. Margot Anderson, EIA

10:15 a.m. Break

10:30 a.m. Move Directly to Break-Out Sessions:

Room 8E-089	Room 5E-069 (Fifth floor)
STEO Electricity Modeling, Phillip Tseng, SMG, Lead, Dave Costello, EMEU, and Janice Poling, SMG, EIA ASA: Mark Bernstein, Cutler Cleveland, Jae Edmonds, Moshe Feder, Nicolas Hengartner and Neha Khanna	Census Bureau Frames Comparisons, Rick Hough and Vicki Haitot, Bureau of Census, under contract to EIA ASA: Johnny Blair, Barbara Forsyth, Walter Hill, Nagaraj Neerchal, Susan Sereika, Darius Singpurwalla, Randy Sitter

11:45 a.m. ASA Committee Discussants:

STEO Electricity Modeling: Cutler Cleveland, ASA

Census Bureau Frames Comparisons: Barbara Forsyth, ASA

12:10 p.m. Invitation for Public Comments, Nicolas Hengartner, ASA Committee Chair

12:15 p.m. Lunch for the Committee members and invited guests, Room 1E-226

1:15 p.m. Return directly to break-out sessions.

1:15 p.m. Break-Out Sessions:

Room 8E-089	Room BE-074 (Basement level)
Regional STEO Propane and Heating Oil Modules Tancred Lidderdale, EMEU, EIA ASA: Mark Bernstein, Cutler Cleveland, Jae Edmonds, Moshe Feder, Nicolas Hengartner and Neha Khanna	Hands-On Usability Testing of EIA's New Website Design, Colleen Blessing, EIA ASA: Johnny Blair, Barbara Forsyth, Walter Hill, Nagaraj Neerchal, Susan Sereika, Darius Singpurwalla, Randy Sitter

2:25 p.m. ASA Committee Discussant on Regional STEO Propane and Heating Oil Modules: Mark Bernstein, ASA

2:35 p.m. Follow-up on Frames Team Activities Howard Bradsher-Fredrick, EIA

3:05 p.m. Break

3:20 p.m. Return directly to break-out sessions.

Room 8E-089	Room BE-074 (Basement level)
EIA’s Proposed Strategy for Addressing Declining Response Rates in the Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS), Dwight French, EMEU, EIA ASA: Johnny Blair, Barbara Forsyth, Walter Hill, Nagaraj Neerchal, Susan Sereika, Darius Singpurwalla, Randy Sitter	Hands-On Usability Testing of EIA's New Website Design, Colleen Blessing, EIA ASA: Mark Bernstein, Cutler Cleveland, Jae Edmonds, Moshe Feder, Nicolas Hengartner and Neha Khanna

4:30 p.m. ASA Committee Discussant on EIA’s Proposed Strategy for Addressing Declining Response Rates in the RECS: Johnny Blair, ASA

4:45 p.m. EIA Discussant on Hands-On Usability Testing of EIA's New Website Design (both sessions): Colleen Blessing, EIA

4:55 p.m. Invitation for Public Comments, Nicolas Hengartner, ASA Committee Chair

5:00 p.m. Adjourn the Thursday Meeting, Nicolas Hengartner, ASA Committee Chair

Friday, April 29, 2005

8:30 a.m. Open Meeting, Nick Hengartner, ASA Committee Chair

8:35 a.m. Assessments: Presentations and a Panel Discussion Nancy Kirkendall, moderator

External Review of Survey Programs: A Progress Report, Brenda Cox, EIA Contractor, and Nancy Kirkendall, EIA

External Review of EIA Program, John Paul Deley, NEIC, EIA

Discussion: Where Next? Howard Gruenspecht, EIA Deputy Administrator and Moderator

9:40 a.m. Break-Out Sessions:

Room 8E-089	Room 5E-069 (Fifth floor)
Progress on EIA’s 914: Response rate and kinds of challenges, John Wood, EIA ASA: Mark Bernstein, Cutler Cleveland, Jae Edmonds, Moshe Feder, Nicolas Hengartner, Neha Khanna and Randy Sitter	Estimate EIA’s 826 Since the Last Time: Differences, estimation groups, outliers and test results Joe Sedransk, Jim Knaub, Lindolfo Pedraza and Nancy Kirkendall, EIA ASA: Johnny Blair, Barbara Forsyth, Walter Hill, Nagaraj Neerchal, Susan Sereika, Darius Singpurwalla

10:50 a.m. Break

11:05 a.m. ASA Committee Discussants on:

Progress on EIA’s 914: Response rate and kinds of challenges: Randy Sitter, ASA

Estimate EIA’s 826 Since the Last Time: Differences, estimation groups, outliers and test results Nagaraj Neerchal, ASA

11:20 a.m. Committee Suggestions for the fall 2005 meeting

11:55 a.m. Invitation for Public Comments, Nicolas Hengartner, ASA Committee Chair

12:00 noon Adjourn the ASA spring meeting with EIA, Nicolas Hengartner, ASA Committee Chair